psuhoffman Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 This is EXACTLY the timeframe when we want to see this too, historically the end of November is when we saw the longwave pattern shift into a canonical Nino look in those best years that show up in the analogs. Doesn't mean we run straight through winter like this...the pattern will ebb and flow...there will be some reloads and temporary torches mixed in, Ji will definitely cancel winter a few times even after we get our first HECS (see 2010) but usually if the winter is going to be really good we start to see hints of it right about now. 29 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Quite a turnaround over a 24 hour period, lol. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2023 Author Share Posted November 15, 2023 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is EXACTLY the timeframe when we want to see this too, historically the end of November is when we saw the longwave pattern shift into a canonical Nino look in those best years that show up in the analogs. Doesn't mean we run straight through winter like this...the pattern will ebb and flow...there will be some reloads and temporary torches mixed in, Ji will definitely cancel winter a few times even after we get our first HECS (see 2010) but usually if the winter is going to be really good we start to see hints of it right about now. How many inches of digital snow at your house count for inches of real snow in the Nov 20-Dec 10 window?? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: How many inches of digital snow at your house count for inches of real snow in the Nov 20-Dec 10 window?? We could solve this problem right now... I've always wanted a snowmaking machine... someone wants to donate...I could have a few inches on my lawn the next below freezing night! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2023 Author Share Posted November 15, 2023 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We could solve this problem right now... I've always wanted a snowmaking machine... someone wants to donate...I could have a few inches on my lawn the next below freezing night! Paging @Midlo Snow Maker 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 From @wxmvpete 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Spire lookin good 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Holy EPO... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Spire lookin good What the frickle is Spire? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: What the frickle is Spire? A model based on collecting a ton of data from satellites combined with AI/machine learning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 https://spire.com/weather/weather-forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: What the frickle is Spire? A model that is supposed to inspire you. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 12 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: A model that is supposed to inspire you. My brain went to that right after I posted, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 16 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: A model that is supposed to inspire you. By modeling a spire in the EPO domain that brings us air directly from the Santa's backyard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Spire is ok for a global impression, but I lost interest a few months ago because regional detail does not exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 That EPO spire is really going to give a -PDO a kick in the rear 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 5 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: 12z gfs wakes up the nino water hose. Make that a BEAST MODE firehose, aimed straight at south central Texas! I crave several severe atmospheric rivers dumping billion year magnitude rain tallies. I want my aquifer water! Floods can be fascinating. We are soaked right now, and WE ARE PRIMED for most excellent runoff! I do not ask. I DEMAND severe moisture feeds from the deep Caribbean and deep South Pacific source regions. I am gonna cut to the chase: I demand October 30, 2015 times at least twenty. I just cannot help myself, I adore rising water levels so much. I have worshipfully watched this particular Fort Myers Beach, FL vid many, many times! I just wub rising water levels SO DAMN MUCH its unbelievable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: This is EXACTLY the timeframe when we want to see this too, historically the end of November is when we saw the longwave pattern shift into a canonical Nino look in those best years that show up in the analogs. Doesn't mean we run straight through winter like this...the pattern will ebb and flow...there will be some reloads and temporary torches mixed in, Ji will definitely cancel winter a few times even after we get our first HECS (see 2010) but usually if the winter is going to be really good we start to see hints of it right about now. Right on man ! From my record keeping going back to the 70's , that is what they indicate as well. I'm just hoping this new climate era won't cause it to be different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 43 minutes ago, Terpeast said: That EPO spire is really going to give a -PDO a kick in the rear 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 I am sensing that the atmosphere is beginning to feel El Nino.. The suppressed southeast system will steal moisture from Friday's potential as a little more northward influence allows greater stealing capability but this may be a positive signal for 5 - 15 days into the future. I predict that moisture influx will improve over the tristate region beginning next week just in time for my month ago Thanksgiving predicted beginning Nino influence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 3 hours ago, MDstorm said: Quite a turnaround over a 24 hour period, lol. Wow thats a complete 180 compared to 24 hours before!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 HH GFS is just a bit different for the 28th lol. Doesn't look to be 3 op runs in a row with snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 26 minutes ago, CAPE said: HH GFS is just a bit different for the 28th lol. Doesn't look to be 3 op runs in a row with snow. Shocking. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: We could solve this problem right now... I've always wanted a snowmaking machine... someone wants to donate...I could have a few inches on my lawn the next below freezing night! *Raises hand* Umm, I'm pretty far away, but I still have all my son's snowmaking stuff in the shed... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Hope you got a pond nearby LOL!http://www.torrentee.com/pdf/Snow-water_conversion_chart.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, Stormfly said: Hope you got a pond nearby LOL!http://www.torrentee.com/pdf/Snow-water_conversion_chart.pdf We ran $300-$400 water AND power bills for D/J/F for several years when he was making snow. EDIT- and that was 18-22 years ago. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: We could solve this problem right now... I've always wanted a snowmaking machine... someone wants to donate...I could have a few inches on my lawn the next below freezing night! Midlo of Maryland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Paging @Midlo Snow Maker Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 22 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: We ran $300-$400 water AND power bills for D/J/F for several years when he was making snow. EDIT- and that was 18-22 years ago. Super cheap then. Average residential main supply isn't adequate for snowmaking. A pond and good centrifugal pump or irrigation system can fix that. A Hale fire pump can work in a pinch as long as the head isn't too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 57 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Shocking. Lol The ens mean ofc has a stronger signal for frozen(albeit still modest) than the previous 2 runs where the op snowed on us. This upcoming period is good practice if nothing else. We gonna be busy this winter. 15 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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