November Mid/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Great Lakes lows always putting a damper on things lol 

That's not some random, poorly timed GL low messing up our mid levels. That is a piece of TPV energy dropping southward as it gets pinched off with the amplifying ridge out west. The pattern is just evolving at this point. That TPV lobe(or multiple pieces) phasing with/deepening the existing trough near the Canadian maritimes is what sets up any potential NA blocking heading into the last week of the month. Imo that period probably offers the better potential for snow chances east of the mountains as the pattern will be more established with a colder air mass more entrenched.

[WxUSAF]

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's not some random, poorly timed GL low messing up our mid levels. That is a piece of TPV energy dropping southward as it gets pinched off with the amplifying ridge out west. The pattern is just evolving at this point. That TPV lobe(or multiple pieces) phasing with/deepening the existing trough near the Canadian maritimes is what sets up any potential NA blocking heading into the last week of the month. Imo that period probably offers the better potential for snow chances east of the mountains as the pattern will be more established with a colder air mass more entrenched.

6z gfs agrees

[CAPE]

37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

6z gfs agrees

Sure does. And the pattern reloading at the end of the run. The SPV becomes quite perturbed on the GFS beginning next week, so this is likely influencing what is being depicted at h5.

[CAPE]

The latest extended products depict the continuation of a respectable to favorable longwave pattern into Dec. Both the Euro weeklies and GEFS ext maintain the same general h5 look, with normal to below normal temps for eastern US the entire month verbatim. Certainly no suggestion of a hostile pattern or a 2 week+ torch. Mid to late month actually looks the best on both, a pretty classic Nino look with lower heights across the south/southeast US (fwiw).

[BristowWx]

its nice not to see burnt terd brown and red colors for 2m anomoly temps for turkey day......so far looks seasonal cold on GEFS for next week.  quite encouraging....I'll take it.  

[WxUSAF]

55 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The latest extended products depict the continuation of a respectable to favorable longwave pattern into Dec. Both the Euro weeklies and GEFS ext maintain the same general h5 look, with normal to below normal temps for eastern US the entire month verbatim. Certainly no suggestion of a hostile pattern or a 2 week+ torch. Mid to late month actually looks the best on both, a pretty classic Nino look with lower heights across the south/southeast US (fwiw).

MJO progression into phases 3-4 (if it gets there) would suggest warmer risks going into December. That would also fit mod+ Nino climo. So we’ll see. But I think we get some sort of event in December. 

[brooklynwx99]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

MJO progression into phases 3-4 (if it gets there) would suggest warmer risks going into December. That would also fit mod+ Nino climo. So we’ll see. But I think we get some sort of event in December. 

i can see mid-month ending up quite warm before getting colder into late month as the MJO circles and the SPV weakens

[Ji]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

MJO progression into phases 3-4 (if it gets there) would suggest warmer risks going into December. That would also fit mod+ Nino climo. So we’ll see. But I think we get some sort of event in December. 

2 of the last 3 moderate Ninos had a cold/snowy December lol

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

MJO progression into phases 3-4 (if it gets there) would suggest warmer risks going into December. That would also fit mod+ Nino climo. So we’ll see. But I think we get some sort of event in December. 

Yeah latest GEFS has it progressing through phase 2 at low amplitude, then into phase 3 but pretty weak. Other guidance has it weaker and then into the COD before progressing into phase 3. We shall see. Probably will have a mild period in December regardless, and the state of the SPV going forward is a wildcard.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

2 of the last 3 moderate Ninos had a cold/snowy December lol

We rarely see wall to wall cold in Dec in these parts regardless of Enso state. 

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We rarely see wall to wall cold in Dec in these parts regardless of Enso state. 

yes--there is always a dec 5 storm...and then a break .... in 2002 we got a miracle Christmas snow event when heavy rain changed to heavy snow at Dulles. DT was beside himself because he insisted it had no chance to do that. Then 2009--you know about that

[brooklynwx99]

35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah latest GEFS has it progressing through phase 2 at low amplitude, then into phase 3 but pretty weak. Other guidance has it weaker and then into the COD before progressing into phase 3. We shall see. Probably will have a mild period in December regardless, and the state of the SPV going forward is a wildcard.

this forcing configuration is very encouraging once we get into mid-late December. very similar to forcing we'd see in the more favorable years, and it's certainly farther west and more prominent in the western IO than the super EP Nino years

[WxUSAF]

^still kinda crazy it’s even a bit FARTHER west than 2002/2009/1986. Despite our superdeeduper east based Nino. But I like descending motion over the maritime continent for sure.

[WinterFire]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

We rarely see wall to wall cold in Dec in these parts regardless of Enso state. 

He’s also dead wrong…Dec 2018, 2015, and 2014 were snowless at DCA (though we all remember how achingly close 2018 was), and all were warmer than average, as was 2004. 2002 and 2009 were the aberrations for Dec Nino climo. 

[nw baltimore wx]

12z gfs wakes up the nino water hose.

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

He’s also dead wrong…Dec 2018, 2015, and 2014 were snowless at DCA (though we all remember how achingly close 2018 was), and all were warmer than average, as was 2004. 2002 and 2009 were the aberrations for Dec Nino climo. 

He said moderate Nino's.

2018 was weak (especially if you factor in the current PDO cycle muting enso which in that case muted the weak nino into behaving like a neutral winter in a -PDO regime)

2015 was a super nino

2014 was weak. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

12z gfs wakes up the nino water hose.

That would be a wet Thanksgiving eve.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

That would be a wet Thanksgiving eve.

and then we see what the trailing wave does. if it's going to snow early, this is how you do it. what a sick pattern

[WxUSAF]

Yeah, maybe goes without saying, but for us east of the mountains in the mid-Atlantic to get snow in the post-thanksgiving period, something like that 6z gfs option is probably the best odds. Fresh cold airmass comes in and trailing wave is weak and moves along the thermal boundary to our south. A stronger storm would pull warmer air in and sink our chances east of the mountains. That’s more like 12z gfs next Saturday. 

[mattie g]

I love seeing a cold push followed by precip breaking out over Texas that's oriented SW-NE.

12z GFS is doing that at D12 and is a look that could really be fruitful even a couple weeks later.

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, maybe goes without saying, but for us east of the mountains in the mid-Atlantic to get snow in the post-thanksgiving period, something like that 6z gfs option is probably the best odds. Fresh cold airmass comes in and trailing wave is weak and moves along the thermal boundary to our south. A stronger storm would pull warmer air in and sink our chances east of the mountains. That’s more like 12z gfs next Saturday. 

i think the issue with the 12z is that the TPV ends up phasing with the vort and shoots it through the lakes... that'll happen in a pattern like this from time to time

but then it reloads. seeing a -EPO cutoff high like that is nice

[WxUSAF]

12z gfs actually fairly close to 6z considering it’s like D12

[mattie g]

I'm getting the tingles just watching the 12z GFS play out and imagining it when climo becomes just a bit more favorable.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

I'm getting the tingles just watching the 12z GFS play out and imagining it when climo becomes just a bit more favorable.

If this was happening even a couple weeks later we’d be getting some major DT-type woofin’

[poolz1]

Seeing the Pacific pattern just continue to reload is beautiful sight.  A little gun-shy after last season but starting to get the feeling we are seeing the winter pattern start to take form.  SPV still doing its yoga moves late in the period this run as well.

[mattie g]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If this was happening even a couple weeks later we’d be getting some major DT-type woofin’

No doubt. Plenty of available cold air, Nino doing its thing...can't help but like the chances with that.

[CAPE]

Canadian has the ridge bridge. Impressive -NAO.

[Eskimo Joe]

^  

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Canadian has the ridge bridge. Impressive -NAO.

if we were going to get on the board early, this would be the pattern to do it with

[CAPE]

Faint signal on the GEFS for the 28th.  A long way off, but the 26th seems to be the beginning of the window of interest based on current guidance. Much of the heavier precip is along the SE coast and offshore on the mean from the 26th- 29th.