November Mid/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

Verbatim places NW of the Fall line see a little snow. A coating to as much as 2" in the northern hills of Carroll County.

[CAPE]

A red pepper bridge with avocado underneath. Looks like a cold Thanksgiving. 

[Eskimo Joe]

^right there is an absolutely classic ridge bridge. Also, look NW of Hawaii...another trough building in.

[CAPE]

Op run I know but this is only a week or so out. Look at the amplitude of that EPO ridge. All sorts of wave interaction/wave breaking going on. Another TPV vorticity lobe gets pinched off the under the anticyclonic wave break and drops south.

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

^right there is an absolutely classic ridge bridge. Also, look NW of Hawaii...another trough building in.

we do models really well...we just never see it on the grass

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

we do models really well...we just never see it on the grass

True, but one glimmer of hope is that we are under 200 hours now. This isn't some 300+ HR plus fantasy.

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Op run I know but this is only a week or so out. Look at the amplitude of that EPO ridge. All sorts of wave interaction/wave breaking going on. Another TPV vorticity lobe gets pinched off the under the anticyclonic wave break and drops south.

weve already had more action today than we did all of last winter

[TSSN+]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

True, but one glimmer of hope is that we are under 200 hours now. This isn't some 300+ HR plus fantasy.

Get it under 120 and then I’d feel more confident in anything. 

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Op run I know but this is only a week or so out. Look at the amplitude of that EPO ridge. All sorts of wave interaction/wave breaking going on. Another TPV vorticity lobe gets pinched off the under the anticyclonic wave break and drops south.

Thoughts on that west coast trough? Maybe the pattern relaxing for a time?

[TSSN+]

We watch 

[NorthArlington101]

We watch 

See you all tonight for the 00z EURO

/s… right?

[TSSN+]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

See you all tonight for the 00z EURO

/s… right?

I don’t put much stock in the euro anymore. Last year it was horrible. GFS led the way many times. 

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

We watch 

 

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I don’t put much stock in the euro anymore. Last year it was horrible. GFS led the way many times. 

I agree. They broke it when the "upgraded" it. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

what are you complaining about then? youve got snow twice already and it was just halloween 11 hours ago...your well on your way bro

Whose complaining?  I just posted snowfall probability statistics based on when the first inch falls here. 

[NorthArlington101]

 

Interesting for favored zones, at least.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Interesting for favored zones, at least.

I mean it’s November. If we get some snow it’s probably going to be NW of the major cities. 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I don’t put much stock in the euro anymore. Last year it was horrible. GFS led the way many times. 

 

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I agree. They broke it when the "upgraded" it. 

Nina v Nino. The euro was atrocious last winter wrt synoptic details in our domain. But that might not apply to this winter with a different pattern. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

I mean it’s November. If we get some snow it’s probably going to be NW of the major cities. 

Yep, and lets get psuhoffman on the board so we can have a blockbuster this year

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Yep, and lets get psuhoffman on the board so we can have a blockbuster this year

I shouldnt have used my location. I’ll never hear the end of it now, deservedly so!  But that wasn’t my point, as you know. 

[psuhoffman]

Bottom line…it’s one thing if it’s a little too warm and the 95 corridor isn’t getting snow early, but it’s not a good sign if the whole region is torching with no snow anywhere in the area until late into the cold season.  That’s the only point I was trying to make. 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Bottom line…it’s one thing if it’s a little too warm and the 95 corridor isn’t getting snow early, but it’s not a good sign if the whole region is torching with no snow anywhere in the area until late into the cold season.  That’s the only point I was trying to make. 

Deliver some ice cubes to this man’s lawn stat 

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I shouldnt have used my location. I’ll never hear the end of it now, deservedly so!  But that wasn’t my point, as you know. 

Yeah I get that, but you kinda walked into it 

[Eskimo Joe]

18z GEFS gets the NW suburbs on the board with a slushy coating to perhaps 2" above 800 ft next week. Even the immediate NW suburbs would see TV Snow with the current advertisement. 

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Bottom line…it’s one thing if it’s a little too warm and the 95 corridor isn’t getting snow early, but it’s not a good sign if the whole region is torching with no snow anywhere in the area until late into the cold season.  That’s the only point I was trying to make. 

Deliver about thirty snow guns primed and ready to go to this man's lawn stat.

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Yep, and lets get psuhoffman on the board so we can have seven BECS blockbusters this year.

FIXED.

[NorthArlington101]

Man, a month later with better cold air, you’d almost think this 00z GFS run might be about to do something.

[NorthArlington101]

Man, a month later with better cold air, you’d almost think this 00z GFS run might be about to do something.

Gonna be nice for SWVA/western burbs, I think.

[TSSN+]

Great Lakes lows always putting a damper on things lol 

[Ji]

Great Lakes lows always putting a damper on things lol 

Yep...the phase came too late without a big high there .

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk