psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 I am NOT predicting anything based on this...but since some want to know what the "book" says... I found some of my old records...using my data back to 2006 then a local coop here back to 1958... These are just the numbers.... If I get 1" by Dec 1 DCA Avg 21" Prob of 30" 24% Prob of 20" 48% Prob of 10" 81% If I don't get 1" by Dec 1 DCA Avg 14" Prob of 30" 11% Prob of 20" 20% Prob of 10" 58% No snow by Dec 10 DCA Avg 12" Prob of 30" 6% Prob of 20" 18% Prob of 10" 53% No snow by Dec 20 DCA Avg 9" Prob of 30" 0 Prob of 20" 9% Prob of 10" 47% And it gets REALLY ugly if I make it to January without snow up here...like REALLY REALLY REALLY ugly... Again...I am not predicting anything...this is just what the statistics say, take it however you want. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Pretty wild look on the 12z GFS. This becoming our first legit 'period of interest'? I don't see any avocados there, so this checks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 If we want to be Nino specific, These are the DCA snowfall averages in Nino winters based on when I get my first 1" of snow here 1" by Dec 1 22" No snow by Dec 1 19" no snow by Dec 10 15" no snow by Dec 20 12" 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am NOT predicting anything based on this...but since some want to know what the "book" says... I found some of my old records...using my data back to 2006 then a local coop here back to 1958... These are just the numbers.... If I get 1" by Dec 1 DCA Avg 21" Prob of 30" 24% Prob of 20" 48% Prob of 10" 81% If I don't get 1" by Dec 1 DCA Avg 14" Prob of 30" 11% Prob of 20" 20% Prob of 10" 58% No snow by Dec 10 DCA Avg 12" Prob of 30" 6% Prob of 20" 18% Prob of 10" 53% No snow by Dec 20 DCA Avg 9" Prob of 30" 0 Prob of 20" 9% Prob of 10" 47% And it gets REALLY ugly if I make it to January without snow up here...like REALLY REALLY REALLY ugly... Again...I am not predicting anything...this is just what the statistics say, take it however you want. Alright sir, in the event that you reach the 1 inch mark, you are hereby contractually obligated to notify all of us the minute it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: I don't see any avocados there, so this checks out. That'll be a $10 royalty fee please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Curious when the first snows were in 2002-2003, 1995-1996, and 2009-2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: i want to see if we can get that wave breaking -NAO to keep showing up, similar to what the OP GFS has been doing. those blocks are flukier than traditional retrograding Scandinavian blocks, but they work all the same i mean, talk about loaded. this is a December airmass with blocking. just want to see that -NAO show up more on ensembles -epo/+pna ftmfw....pna will almost always trump a really good Atlantic side. The look out west is of utmost importance. Nice disco gents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Curious when the first snows were in 2002-2003, 1995-1996, and 2009-2010. Late November in 2002, early November in 1996, and the first week of December in 2009 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I don't see any avocados there, so this checks out. Not so sure...looks like an avocado in Europe/Scandinavia, and maybe a small one around the Aleutians!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That'll be a $10 royalty fee please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Love that guidance wants to keep the pattern of sending storms up the coast in the longer range. Game on. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 28 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Curious when the first snows were in 2002-2003, 1995-1996, and 2009-2010. For BWI, first 1" or more happened December 14, 1995, 1.0", December 5, 2002, 7.5", and December 5, 2009, 1". You can go to the NowData for DCA if you want. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: For BWI, first 1" or more happened December 14, 1995, 1.0", December 5, 2002, 7.5", and December 5, 2009, 1". You can go to the NowData for DCA if you want. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx Love your Calvin & Hobbes avatar. They loved snow and so do I. Interesting how our two best El Nino winters both followed the December 5th rule. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If we want to be Nino specific, These are the DCA snowfall averages in Nino winters based on when I get my first 1" of snow here 1" by Dec 1 22" No snow by Dec 1 19" no snow by Dec 10 15" no snow by Dec 20 12" Didn’t you say you got about an inch in the last week or so? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 17 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: For BWI, first 1" or more happened December 14, 1995, 1.0", December 5, 2002, 7.5", and December 5, 2009, 1". You can go to the NowData for DCA if you want. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx Surprised neither of those events in November 1995 amounted to an inch at BWI. Thought I remembered more snow than that when I was living in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 8 minutes ago, mattie g said: Didn’t you say you got about an inch in the last week or so? I asked him that yesterday and he said it was too warm to amount more than maybe a trace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Surprised neither of those events in November 1995 amounted to an inch at BWI. Thought I remembered more snow than that when I was living in that area. There were a couple of 0.5" snows that month at BWI so I'm betting most of us saw more than what was reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I asked him that yesterday and he said it was too warm to amount more than maybe a trace Losing snow on the margins. Typical… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 How much for Carbondale Mt PSU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 EPS still aggressive with the -EPO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2023 Author Share Posted November 14, 2023 Yeah EPS like the other ensembles are pretty cold after the midweek storm next week. Certainly upslope and lake effect will kick in at times. Doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility to get some frozen precip east of the mountains if things shake out right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Finally posted my winter forecast 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Didn’t you say you got about an inch in the last week or so? 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: I asked him that yesterday and he said it was too warm to amount more than maybe a trace It's snowed twice up here so far...but ground temps were well above freezing both times. The first the most we ever got was a slight whitening of the ground during one heavy burst. The second no accumulation at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I am NOT predicting anything based on this...but since some want to know what the "book" says... I found some of my old records...using my data back to 2006 then a local coop here back to 1958... Good data! How many years are in your date/no snow dataset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Good data! How many years are in your date/no snow dataset? My data goes back to 2006. I found two reliable coop sites that go back to the 1950s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It's snowed twice up here so far...but ground temps were well above freezing both times. The first the most we ever got was a slight whitening of the ground during one heavy burst. The second no accumulation at all. what are you complaining about then? youve got snow twice already and it was just halloween 11 hours ago...your well on your way bro 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Mount PSU special on the 18z GFS for next week. A couple inches. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Winter may be saved! 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2023 Author Share Posted November 14, 2023 Ha jinx except I posted in banter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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