TSSN+ Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: He was completely correct last year … Close the blinds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: We need to induce an early snowfall to avoid a psu meltdown Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Here we go 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: It was interesting that you brought it up in sort of a negative context, given the ens guidance has been depicting a pretty favorable h5 pattern towards the end of the month, and there have been plenty of good vibe posts made wrt that over the past few days. I didn’t predict that it’s not going to snow in the next few weeks… I was seeing some comments to the effect of “it doesn’t matter” and I was pointing out that actually statistically it does. That’s all. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 My opinion is that people are already upset because it never seems to snow anymore. And then psuhoffman gives them a dose of reality and it pushes them over the edge. Them being me. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 WB 6Z GEFS, will take 9 and 30.... Going to be a more interesting winter to track. Think this is the first time we have gone over 10% prob for 3 inches or more anywhere east of the mountains at our latitude so I guess the period after Thanksgiving will be a timeframe to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2023 Author Share Posted November 14, 2023 Great thread from @wxmvpete about next week. Winter could be saved!?! 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 there have been some posts on next week's potentially exciting pattern, so I thought I'd share some more coherent thoughts... the main driver for this change in the pattern from -PNA/+EPO to +PNA/-EPO will be an anomalously strong +EAMT (east Asian mountain torque) that will develop over the next couple of days. HP is around 3-4 sigma above normal here the way EAMT works is that since the pressure gradient force is pointed to the west (wind blows from HP to LP), the Pacific jet must extend in order to conserve the total momentum. we see this Pacific jet extension here: the Pacific jet extension then forces a strong Aleutian / GoA LP (yay El Nino) that leads to an anomalous -EPO that is also timed up with a +PNA! no more -EPO/-PNA crap from last year, it seems. these patterns are very efficient at driving Arctic air into the CONUS, especially the Plains eastward. given split flow and the displacement of the TPV into SE Canada, there is certainly an increased risk at seeing wintry weather, even south of the M-D line. either way, there is a reason for this pattern to develop... I don't think it's model fantasy BS 22 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: He was completely correct last year … All the more reason to root for the psu inch, no? We clear that hurdle we're already way ahead of last year, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: All the more reason to root for the psu inch, no? We clear that hurdle we're already way ahead of last year, lol Ya I hope we get something before Christmas so it can lift the mood. If it hasn’t snowed by mid January it’s going to be mass weenie suicide warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ya I hope we get something before Christmas so it can lift the mood. If it hasn’t snowed by mid January it’s going to be mass weenie suicide warnings. If we get to MLK day with IAD, BWI, and DCA not recording at least 1" of snow on the season, then we are in big time trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If we get to MLK day with IAD, BWI, and DCA not recording at least 1" of snow on the season, then we are in big time trouble. I know I’ll be lined up at the end of the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2023 Author Share Posted November 14, 2023 12z GGEM is crazy cold for thanksgiving and would suggest snow flurries/showers verbatim especially for folks N/W and in the mountains. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z GGEM is crazy cold for thanksgiving and would suggest snow flurries/showers verbatim especially for folks N/W and in the mountains. Pretty wild look on the 12z GFS. This becoming our first legit 'period of interest'? 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Looks like the medium to long term guidance is starting to pick up on the consequences of the EAMT event that @brooklynwx99talked about. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like the medium to long term guidance is starting to pick up on the consequences of the EAMT event that @brooklynwx99talked about. They have been 'seeing' that for multiple runs now. The looks in the NA on some recent runs are interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: They have been 'seeing' that for multiple runs now. The looks in the NA on some recent runs are interesting. You can tell even from the op runs that it *looks* different than the crappy Nina base state we’ve been in for years with there being actual cold behind storms instead of endless warm cutters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: They have been 'seeing' that for multiple runs now. The looks in the NA on some recent runs are interesting. Also good to see that trough NW or N of Hawaii and another trying to load up near Japan. Maybe that one cools the SSTs and help re-aling the PDO domain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 GFS delivers back to back snow events for places just to our N/NW. Crazy op run 300+ hours out. Have to continue to watch this period on the ens guidance. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: GFS delivers back to back snow events for places just to our N/NW. Crazy op run 300+ hours out. Have to continue to watch this period on the ens guidance. If we can get some snow along the Blue Ridge it should help mitigate the wildfire risk. There are still a half dozen active fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: You can tell even from the op runs that it *looks* different than the crappy Nina base state we’ve been in for years with there being actual cold behind storms instead of endless warm cutters. Storms can still cut, esp early in the season. I get your point though. Big difference with the features in the NPAC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: If we can get some snow along the Blue Ridge it should help mitigate the wildfire risk. There are still a half dozen active fires. That area and esp further west would be favored for frozen with the depicted pattern and being so early in the season. Fighting climo in the lowlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Storms can still cut, esp early in the season. I get your point though. Big difference with the features in the NPAC. I just like to see how if/when storms cut on guidance there is actual cold air delivery behind them, which was too much to ask for last year excluding the Christmas fiasco 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: GFS delivers back to back snow events for places just to our N/NW. Crazy op run 300+ hours out. Have to continue to watch this period on the ens guidance. i want to see if we can get that wave breaking -NAO to keep showing up, similar to what the OP GFS has been doing. those blocks are flukier than traditional retrograding Scandinavian blocks, but they work all the same i mean, talk about loaded. this is a December airmass with blocking. just want to see that -NAO show up more on ensembles 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Storms can still cut, esp early in the season. I get your point though. Big difference with the features in the NPAC. Really a lot of pressure on those systems to deliver snow literally to mount PSU or we are all screwed. It's actually a hilariously effective trick to make us all root for his backyard. Props to him. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: GFS delivers back to back snow events for places just to our N/NW. Crazy op run 300+ hours out. Have to continue to watch this period on the ens guidance. It is interesting that it seems like the op runs have been leading the way with the advertised HLB especially in the NAO domain. Getting there with each run but all 3 global ops have had some impressive blocking the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i want to see if we can get that wave breaking -NAO to keep showing up, similar to what the OP GFS has been doing. those blocks are flukier than traditional retrograding Scandinavian blocks, but they work all the same i mean, talk about loaded. this is a December airmass with blocking. just want to see that -NAO show up more on ensembles Yeah as of now its mostly been the GEFS on the ens guidance, outside of something very transient. That's a pretty nice dipole right there. The deep vortex retrogrades westward before weakening, and the next one is moving N to reinforce the +heights over GL. Like you said, it wouldn't likely be a sustained blocking pattern, but still can work with a bit of timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 My dogs' vet is literally in Manchester, probably pretty damn close to Mount PSU's abode, and I have an appt on 11/29 for the youngest to get the snip snip. Maybe I can drive to snow for that drop-off... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 6 minutes ago, poolz1 said: It is interesting that it seems like the op runs have been leading the way with the advertised HLB especially in the NAO domain. Getting there with each run but all 3 global ops have had some impressive blocking the past few days. It has mostly been popping on the GFS, and the GEFS has been more emphatic the last couple runs. EPS has been hinting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: 12z GGEM is crazy cold for thanksgiving and would suggest snow flurries/showers verbatim especially for folks N/W and in the mountains. Aside from one or two blips, the GFS has been "seeing" Thanksgiving cold in our backyards for quite a few days in a row now. Interesting to see the GGEM come around to a GFS look now, which would fit with what we've been seeing in the longer term recently (GFS being more accurate at range) should it come to pass. I'd rather not freeze my arse off while cooking the turkey on my Big Green Egg, but I guess it sets a mood and is a far cry from the recent Thanksgivings we've spent in HHI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2023 Author Share Posted November 14, 2023 36 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Really a lot of pressure on those systems to deliver snow literally to mount PSU or we are all screwed. It's actually a hilariously effective trick to make us all root for his backyard. Props to him. Snow stockholm syndrome 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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