WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, mattie g said: JFC Amen 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The ensembles continue to advertise a favorable Pac look as we head into December. Aleutian low/-EPO and a neutral PNA. That type of pattern can bring some early season cold. AO/NAO domain isn't great but not hostile either. TPV in a decent spot. I know others have different thoughts but I still think for your overall winter outcomes, the pacific is the driver. Blocking helps, but a bad pacific can sink it all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The ensembles continue to advertise a favorable Pac look as we head into December. Aleutian low/-EPO and a neutral PNA. That type of pattern can bring some early season cold. AO/NAO domain isn't great but not hostile either. TPV in a decent spot. This would be more than acceptable... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I know others have different thoughts but I still think for your overall winter outcomes, the pacific is the driver. Blocking helps, but a bad pacific can sink it all. I tend to agree. There is always the 'cold and dry' fear with a pattern like that without any blocking on the Atlantic side to slow things down a bit (and also increase chances for a favorable storm track), but the other thing that can kill snow chances ofc is little to no cold air availability. A pattern that injects cross Polar flow into our source region minimizes that problem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I know others have different thoughts but I still think for your overall winter outcomes, the pacific is the driver. Blocking helps, but a bad pacific can sink it all. I think this is increasingly true. If you go back far enough there are examples of the high latitudes offsetting a completely crap pacific longwave pattern and leading to a snowy winter...happened a few times in the 1960's but that has become increasingly rare lately. As the pacific warms, whether that is just a temporary or permanent thing we don't need to have that debate, it becomes harder for the downstream flow to mute the eastern ridge associated with a bad pacific longwave configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Latest 3 month JMA from WB. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Despite what others might have to say about the "base nina state" or -PDO in the main nino thread, this weekly SST trend is definitely what we want to see going into the second half of November. Cooling north of Hawaii, warming off GOA and west coast. Plus a boost between 150-170W just east of the dateline. Atlantic trending towards a tripole look if that makes any difference. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Despite what others might have to say about the "base nina state" or -PDO in the main nino thread, this weekly SST trend is definitely what we want to see going into the second half of November. Cooling north of Hawaii, warming off GOA and west coast. Plus a boost between 150-170W just east of the dateline. Atlantic trending towards a tripole look if that makes any difference. Good to see. Let's hope it continues. 33 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Latest 3 month JMA from WB. It's slightly encouraging to see the main lobe of the polar vortex on our side of the globe. Would like to see a big more ridging in the NAO domain, but the Pacific doesn't look nearly as hostile as previous runs. Hope this continues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Latest 3 month JMA from WB. I like that look ... if it verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 3 hours ago, mattie g said: JFC Yep, not even Nov 15 and the old logbook has made the appearance 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2023 Author Share Posted November 13, 2023 GEFS has flipped back once again to strong coupled +PNA/-EPO for Thanksgiving. The -EPO part has been quite consistent, but the pattern along the west coast has been flopping back and forth. Compare today and yesterdays 12z runs: GFS op and GGEM both have some very chilly airmasses for next week as well. Hopefully we can get the far N/W crew a slushy dusting out of this and save winter! 8 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yep, not even Nov 15 and the old logbook has made the appearance Context... I'm not saying its bad that it hasn't snowed yet. But some were basically saying its fine if we torch through December because its going to be a backloaded winter. I wanted to point out that isn't really what the historical data says is a viable path to a good winter. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS has flipped back once again to strong coupled +PNA/-EPO for Thanksgiving. The -EPO part has been quite consistent, but the pattern along the west coast has been flopping back and forth. Compare today and yesterdays 12z runs: GFS op and GGEM both have some very chilly airmasses for next week as well. Hopefully we can get the far N/W crew a slushy dusting out of this and save winter! Yeah, we just need to give psuhoffman an inch to get him to put down the logbook. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Context... I'm not saying its bad that it hasn't snowed yet. But some were basically saying its fine if we torch through December because its going to be a backloaded winter. I wanted to point out that isn't really what the historical data says is a viable path to a good winter. Backloaded does not mean December torch. Not sure who said that. Most of the seasonal/extended guidance is suggestive of a relatively mild December though, which is pretty common in a Nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: Backloaded does not mean December torch. Not sure who said that. Most of the seasonal/extended guidance is suggestive of a relatively mild December though, which is pretty common in a Nino. I've seen comments to the effect of "toss December". It's common to torch early in a super nino. But those tend to not be so good overall also...unless we get super lucky with one huge storm like 83 and 2016. I do not consider this to be even close to a super nino, even if the ONI might be closer...there are various other factors that made this much more of a central based moderate nino imo. Those are actually more hit or miss wrt December. Yea 2015 was pretty mild but it did snow several times just NW of the cities by Dec 10th that year before it got really mild from Dec 15-Jan 15. But then there was Dec 2003 and 2009. Going further back Nino's show a more hit or miss December with the Decembers that produced snow having the better outcomes in general! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Despite what others might have to say about the "base nina state" or -PDO in the main nino thread, this weekly SST trend is definitely what we want to see going into the second half of November. Cooling north of Hawaii, warming off GOA and west coast. Plus a boost between 150-170W just east of the dateline. Atlantic trending towards a tripole look if that makes any difference. What does that mean? I've never heard of an Atlantic tripole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2023 Author Share Posted November 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: What does that mean? I've never heard of an Atlantic tripole. Warm/cool/warm pattern in North Atlantic SSTs is allegedly correlated with -NAO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 13 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: 00z GFS not horribly far off on the day before Thanksgiving. At least looks like an interesting day of weather verbatim. Almost tries a follow up storm too. Caved and subscribed to WxBell again today... there are a handful of GEFS and EPS members that throw some snow around. Far from anything really interesting, but enough to keep (a weenie) me entertained. Kind of a coastal look with cold not too far away... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Warm/cool/warm pattern in North Atlantic SSTs is allegedly correlated with -NAO Any peer reviewed research available to read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS has flipped back once again to strong coupled +PNA/-EPO for Thanksgiving. The -EPO part has been quite consistent, but the pattern along the west coast has been flopping back and forth. Compare today and yesterdays 12z runs: GFS op and GGEM both have some very chilly airmasses for next week as well. Hopefully we can get the far N/W crew a slushy dusting out of this and save winter! The old 'dont get caught up too far in the extended range as guidance is struggling within 10 days' thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2023 Author Share Posted November 13, 2023 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Any peer reviewed research available to read? Probably but not sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 57 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, we just need to give psuhoffman an inch to get him to put down the logbook. You can't afford that surgery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 13, 2023 Author Share Posted November 13, 2023 Euro also with a chilly airmass next week. Friday’s rain chances do seem mostly dead unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS has flipped back once again to strong coupled +PNA/-EPO for Thanksgiving. The -EPO part has been quite consistent, but the pattern along the west coast has been flopping back and forth. Compare today and yesterdays 12z runs: GFS op and GGEM both have some very chilly airmasses for next week as well. Hopefully we can get the far N/W crew a slushy dusting out of this and save winter! This would be workable. Trough in Honolulu, Ridge in Vegas, Trough in D.C.. Of course, considering the flip in 24 hrs., what will we have tomorrow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro also with a chilly airmass next week. Friday’s rain chances do seem mostly dead unfortunately. It was amazing to see the deterministic GFS and GEM collapse from more than an inch on Friday 24 hrs. ago to nada at 6 am.. The ensembles held their own from yesterday as well as the NBM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Agreed. Big test will be to see if: 1.) This pattern holds or improves as we near the timeframe 2.) Do we "kick the can" 3.) Do we score? Even if it's the NW suburbs that get a 1" - 2" slushy coating on the grass, that would be a win. GFS has low after low after low developing off the SE coast. If that pattern holds thru Feb there will be several big snows and some minor ones added in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 WB latest EURO weekly for Christmas week 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 ^not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB latest EURO weekly for Christmas week Lock it the fudge in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 That wave the week after Thanksgiving on the GFS is something to watch imo. The setup is decent. Get the NS to phase in at the right time and it could work out. And I agree with PSU about the lack of snow by December 15th. Out here it is the same. A no snow November/early December usually means a ratter. 2016 was saved with the storm of my lifetime. Or that winter was heading to a complete disaster as well. But I dont think we see no snow in either month. We are gonna have our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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