November Mid/Long Range Discussion

[nj2va]

I think we’ll have our share of coastals this winter.  Tuck that LP off ORF, bomb it out, as it crawls ENE and occludes in mid January.

[Terpeast]

36 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I think we’ll have our share of coastals this winter.  Tuck that LP off ORF, bomb it out, as it crawls ENE and occludes in mid January.

CMC also supports this. Still need the euro to get on board, but this is a much needed rain if it verifies

[psuhoffman]

12 hours ago, CAPE said:

Even with the h5 looks of the last few runs the EPS had a mild Thanksgiving. GEFS looked colder, but has since trended milder. I mean, what are we looking for exactly lol. Right now it looks pretty dry with temps 55-60. Nice weather to fry a turkey or whatever.

Given your location I get your attitude. But in the last 75 years there have been 17 seasons with over 50” here. And only one of them got to December with no accumulating snowfall. Most had significant snow by the end of the first week of December. Up here you can usually tell early if the season has big potential. And if I don’t get 50” here you can forget some of those haughty big number predictions I see for the metro areas in the snowfall contest thread!  

 

it’s one thing if DC is 45 and just a bit too warm to snow but it’s not good when we’re 55-60 into December. There is time to turn around. I’m not worried yet. But I do think the next few weeks has more to tell us about the outcome of winter than some seem to think. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Given your location I get your attitude. But in the last 75 years there have been 17 seasons with over 50” here. And only one of them got to December with no accumulating snowfall. Most had significant snow by the end of the first week of December. Up here you can usually tell early if the season has big potential. And if I don’t get 50” here you can forget some of those haughty big number predictions I see for the metro areas in the snowfall contest thread!  

 

it’s one thing if DC is 45 and just a bit too warm to snow but it’s not good when we’re 55-60 into December. There is time to turn around. I’m not worried yet. But I do think the next few weeks has more to tell us about the outcome of winter than some seem to think. 

Maybe folks are just going off of what moderate niños USUALLY do. But we don't seem to be usual anymore...why don't meteorologists just wait until December before seasonal forecasting? Like who knows if things still work the way they did before? Better off just putting a question mark and be done with it!

[NorthArlington101]

00z GFS not horribly far off on the day before Thanksgiving. At least looks like an interesting day of weather verbatim. Almost tries a follow up storm too.

[jayyy]

I agree there are certainly too many unreasonable people anywhere...but there does seem to be a higher concentration of them in our area compared to other places I've lived or spent significant time.  

If you end up leaving the area, you’ll find the QOH (quality of human) rating has severely declined everywhere.


.

[CAPE]

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Given your location I get your attitude. But in the last 75 years there have been 17 seasons with over 50” here. And only one of them got to December with no accumulating snowfall. Most had significant snow by the end of the first week of December. Up here you can usually tell early if the season has big potential. And if I don’t get 50” here you can forget some of those haughty big number predictions I see for the metro areas in the snowfall contest thread!  

 

it’s one thing if DC is 45 and just a bit too warm to snow but it’s not good when we’re 55-60 into December. There is time to turn around. I’m not worried yet. But I do think the next few weeks has more to tell us about the outcome of winter than some seem to think. 

I was talking about Thanksgiving day lol. So what if its 60? It could snow a few days later.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS....GFS caves to EURO: poof goes the weekend rain for the drought areas.

[Ji]

WB 6Z GFS....GFS caves to EURO: poof goes the weekend rain for the drought areas.

No it didn't. The gefs ensembles for weekend rain were never really robust

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

[CAPE]

For those who want a chilly Turkey day, root for the GEPS. High temps in the 40s. EPS is milder with mid to upper 50s.

[KingJWx]

Latest CFSv2 weeklies for the week after Thanksgiving. BN temps and AN precip, maybe a window of opportunity?

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

I was talking about Thanksgiving day lol. So what if its 60? It could snow a few days later.

I was also referring to your “December will probably be December” comment. Yea December’s have been just mostly awful lately.  And guess what’s also been mostly awful for a long time now, our entire winters!  
 

Is it possible we torch straight through to January then turn it around?  Sure, but that’s not the typical pathway to a big snow year.  Usually they show their hand earlier than they historically.  It might not snow on the mid Atlantic coastal plain but there is a huge difference between it being just a little too warm for snow along 95 and it being too warm for snow anywhere in our region.  I looked it up years ago, and everyone hates when I pull out the exact dates and numbers, but they’ve been perfect in declaring “winters over” several times recently.  There are definitive milestones where if it hasn’t snowed by then in places like where I am or Martinsburg WV or Hagerstown…it starts looking really bad for the winter, and those dates are fast approaching, so when I see long range runs that mostly torch our whole area for weeks it bothers me some because yes it’s “more if the same” but I don’t want more of the same awful crap the last 7 years has been!  It would be nice to get back to when it actually snowed in November and December here because that was also when we used to get a lot of snow in Winter more often  

 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I was also referring to your “December will probably be December” comment. Yea December’s have been just mostly awful lately.  And guess what’s also been mostly awful for a long time now, our entire winters!  
 

Is it possible we torch straight through to January then turn it around?  Sure, but that’s not the typical pathway to a big snow year.  Usually they show their hand earlier than they historically.  It might not snow on the mid Atlantic coastal plain but there is a huge difference between it being just a little too warm for snow along 95 and it being too warm for snow anywhere in our region.  I looked it up years ago, and everyone hates when I pull out the exact dates and numbers, but they’ve been perfect in declaring “winters over” several times recently.  There are definitive milestones where if it hasn’t snowed by then in places like where I am or Martinsburg WV or Hagerstown…it starts looking really bad for the winter, and those dates are fast approaching, so when I see long range runs that mostly torch our whole area for weeks it bothers me some because yes it’s “more if the same” but I don’t want more of the same awful crap the last 7 years has been!  It would be nice to get back to when it actually snowed in November and December here because that was also when we used to get a lot of snow in Winter more often  

 

My wag is the second half of Dec will be colder. I also said I could see some snow the latter part of the month. I guess you missed that post lol. The reality is December has been an extension of Fall for the lowlands lately- and it might be the new normal. It's tricky this winter wrt to snowfall because this Nino is unusual, but most of the seasonal guidance is suggestive of a back loaded winter with the pattern becoming favorable in Jan, and Feb likely being the best month for snow chances.

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

My wag is the second half of Dec will be colder. I also said I could see some snow the latter part of the month. I guess you missed that post lol. The reality is December has been an extension of Fall for the lowlands lately- and it might be the new normal. It's tricky this winter wrt to snowfall because this Nino is unusual, but most of the seasonal guidance is suggestive of a back loaded winter with the pattern becoming favorable in Jan, and Feb likely being the best month for snow chances.

Maybe…but the numbers are what they are. 2015 was back loaded. But here I had 6” of snow in November and several inches the first week of December. Yes DC didn’t get any snow until late January but that’s different and not as uncommon. If it doesn’t snow early up here it’s almost always a sign the winters in trouble. 
 

That said we still have a few weeks to make that happen. Im not that worried yet. But I am not dismissing it either. 

[Eskimo Joe]

43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was also referring to your “December will probably be December” comment. Yea December’s have been just mostly awful lately.  And guess what’s also been mostly awful for a long time now, our entire winters!  
 

Is it possible we torch straight through to January then turn it around?  Sure, but that’s not the typical pathway to a big snow year.  Usually they show their hand earlier than they historically.  It might not snow on the mid Atlantic coastal plain but there is a huge difference between it being just a little too warm for snow along 95 and it being too warm for snow anywhere in our region.  I looked it up years ago, and everyone hates when I pull out the exact dates and numbers, but they’ve been perfect in declaring “winters over” several times recently.  There are definitive milestones where if it hasn’t snowed by then in places like where I am or Martinsburg WV or Hagerstown…it starts looking really bad for the winter, and those dates are fast approaching, so when I see long range runs that mostly torch our whole area for weeks it bothers me some because yes it’s “more if the same” but I don’t want more of the same awful crap the last 7 years has been!  It would be nice to get back to when it actually snowed in November and December here because that was also when we used to get a lot of snow in Winter more often  

What are those benchmarks? You can DM me if you don't want the peanut gallery giving you static.

[Terpeast]

59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was also referring to your “December will probably be December” comment. Yea December’s have been just mostly awful lately.  And guess what’s also been mostly awful for a long time now, our entire winters!  
 

Is it possible we torch straight through to January then turn it around?  Sure, but that’s not the typical pathway to a big snow year.  Usually they show their hand earlier than they historically.  It might not snow on the mid Atlantic coastal plain but there is a huge difference between it being just a little too warm for snow along 95 and it being too warm for snow anywhere in our region.  I looked it up years ago, and everyone hates when I pull out the exact dates and numbers, but they’ve been perfect in declaring “winters over” several times recently.  There are definitive milestones where if it hasn’t snowed by then in places like where I am or Martinsburg WV or Hagerstown…it starts looking really bad for the winter, and those dates are fast approaching, so when I see long range runs that mostly torch our whole area for weeks it bothers me some because yes it’s “more if the same” but I don’t want more of the same awful crap the last 7 years has been!  It would be nice to get back to when it actually snowed in November and December here because that was also when we used to get a lot of snow in Winter more often  

 

I checked for this definitive early correlation for KIAD, and it’s a bit murkier. But for places like yours, HGR and MRB - it makes sense. I’ll keep an eye on the northern tier of our sub. 

Didn’t they already get a little snow a week ago? Like an inch? Or less?

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I checked for this definitive early correlation for KIAD, and it’s a bit murkier. But for places like yours, HGR and MRB - it makes sense. I’ll keep an eye on the northern tier of our sub. 

Didn’t they already get a little snow a week ago? Like an inch? Or less?

I just checked the climate reports for both sites and did not see any snow recorded at either location. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I just checked the climate reports for both sites and did not see any snow recorded at either location. 

Mmm okay. That radar looked good for an inch or so, but maybe a tad too warm or they got skipped

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Mmm okay. That radar looked good for an inch or so, but maybe a tad too warm or they got skipped

Yea I was surprised. The CC imagery suggested snow as far east as Sabilasville and Catoctin Mt, but only Garrett County appears to have picked up anything of consequence. 

[SnowenOutThere]

26 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What are those benchmarks? You can DM me if you don't want the peanut gallery giving you static.

I'd also be interested in getting those statistics if you share them 

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I checked for this definitive early correlation for KIAD, and it’s a bit murkier. But for places like yours, HGR and MRB - it makes sense. I’ll keep an eye on the northern tier of our sub. 

Didn’t they already get a little snow a week ago? Like an inch? Or less?

We got snow but the ground was too warm for any accumulation. For my location 1” was my marker. 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We got snow but the ground was too warm for any accumulation. For my location 1” was my marker. 

Yeah, an early inch really shouldn’t be too much to ask for near the md line away from the cities at relative elevation, even in a backloaded season. 

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What are those benchmarks? You can DM me if you don't want the peanut gallery giving you static.

 

27 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I'd also be interested in getting those statistics if you share them 

I just looked and it seems when my last laptop broke a few months ago I lost it. Thought I had it backed up but I don’t see it in my files. I will recreate it though, it’s come in handy (way too often) lately.  I’ll work on that as soon as I finish my winter thoughts hopefully today. 
 

But to summarize for now…unlike at IAD, DC and BWI where it is more common to go later into winter before getting snow…there is a pretty strong correlation up here where the avg snowfall and probabilities of hitting whatever benchmark you want…50”, 30”, 20”… go down steadily the further past Dec 1 you go without 1” of snow. 
 

By Dec 10 the odds of a blockbuster winter are all but gone.  Hope for a decent near avg winger evaporates if we make it to Xmas with no snow and if we get to Jan 10 it almost always ends being a complete crap non winter with basically no snow at all. 

[psuhoffman]

Let me clarify that we still have plenty of time to get snow even up here and be in the “it could still be a decent to good winter”. But a counter point…what’s the goal here?  We’re coming off our least snowy long term period EVER!  We have a Nino. If those claiming it’s mostly just been a fluke or bad cycle (as I hope but am skeptical) are correct this statistically should be the bounce back. That year where Baltimore gets 50” and offsets the dreg numbers of the last 7 years. 
 

If Baltimore gets 25” this year that doesn’t actually break us out of the snow drought. Our once a decade big years need to be BIG or else things are worse than many want to admit.  This has to be a blockbuster season or statistically the snow drought continues and our snow mean continues to fall statistically.  
 

 

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Let me clarify that we still have plenty of time to get snow even up here and be in the “it could still be a decent to good winter”. But a counter point…what’s the goal here?  We’re coming off our least snowy long term period EVER!  We have a Nino. If those claiming it’s mostly just been a fluke or bad cycle (as I hope but am skeptical) are correct this statistically should be the bounce back. That year where Baltimore gets 50” and offsets the dreg numbers of the last 7 years. 
 

If Baltimore gets 25” this year that doesn’t actually break us out of the snow drought. Our once a decade big years need to be BIG or else things are worse than many want to admit.  This has to be a blockbuster season or statistically the snow drought continues and our snow mean continues to fall statistically.  
 

 

I hear what you’re saying, but I think our average already has gone down and is going down and there’s no going back. 

I still put high chances of a decent winter, with lower chances of either a ratter or a blockbuster. I still lean towards it being a good winter because we have a nino that isn’t too strong and this is the best chance for a KU hit we’ve had in years. Chances are, that big hit if its going to happen is late Jan through Feb. 

[mattie g]

JFC

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I hear what you’re saying, but I think our average already has gone down and is going down and there’s no going back. 

I still put high chances of a decent winter, with lower chances of either a ratter or a blockbuster. I still lean towards it being a good winter because we have a nino that isn’t too strong and this is the best chance for a KU hit we’ve had in years. Chances are, that big hit if its going to happen is late Jan through Feb. 

I agree with all this.  I hope to have my winter thoughts out today and they might surprise some people. But not everyone has accepted the "reality" as you seem to have.  But there is still plenty of push back to what you just said above.  And many have said "wait until we get a real nino and that would be the test".  So here it is.  I am just pointing out for that narrative this can't just be a slightly above average winter.  If we get 7 years of total worst ever garbage the big year cant just be what used to be normal.  

I tend to be overly analytical and also carry several unrelated narratives simultaneously and I understand how that can be confusing or frustrating.  If we get a decent winter...I will enjoy every snow event and will be totally fine with it emotionally.  

 

[CAPE]

The ensembles continue to advertise a favorable Pac look as we head into December. Aleutian low/-EPO and a neutral PNA. That type of pattern can bring some early season cold. AO/NAO domain isn't great but not hostile either. TPV in a decent spot.

[brooklynwx99]

25 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The ensembles continue to advertise a favorable Pac look as we head into December. Aleutian low/-EPO and a neutral PNA. That type of pattern can bring some early season cold. AO/NAO domain isn't great but not hostile either. TPV in a decent spot.

this is how you get it to snow early on. nice cross polar flow there

probably a transient pattern but it would be nice to get on the board early

[Eskimo Joe]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is how you get it to snow early on. nice cross polar flow there

probably a transient pattern but it would be nice to get on the board early

Agreed. Big test will be to see if:

1.) This pattern holds or improves as we near the timeframe

2.) Do we "kick the can"

3.) Do we score? Even if it's the NW suburbs that get a 1" - 2" slushy coating on the grass, that would be a win.