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November Mid/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF
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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Admittedly pretty fun to look at at HH, with a bit of weed.B)

Totally weenie tho.

Very Feb 2010 but ya if that the consensus across all long range guidance in a couple weeks then we get excited for now it’s fun to look at and dream. 
 

On a side note I’ve been putting together my analogs (hope to release my winter guess very soon) and 2010 was high on the analog list.  But so are some total dreg years depending on what metrics you think are slightly more important.  I’ve never seen a more divergent analog list in the years I’ve done this.  

 

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Over multiple runs on the 3 ensemble means, it appears the N Pacific is reshuffling into a -EPO/neutral-ish PNA look. I wouldn't mind if that pattern locks in. On the Atlantic side, it looks like any ridging in the NAO domain will be transient in nature heading into December. Something to keep any eye on, but for now the AO/NAO looks to remain close to neutral.

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12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Dreaming of a White Thanksgiving?  WB 6Z GFS

 

There is a tiny, sporadic signal on the means suggesting some flakes could fly during that period. Good bet for the western ridge with cold upslope flow in the wake of an early week storm. EPS is less bullish on a cold Turkey day.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

There is a tiny, sporadic signal on the means suggesting some flakes could fly during that period. Good bet for the western ridge with cold upslope flow in the wake of an early week storm. EPS is less bullish on a cold Turkey day.

i will say this… if December turns out good, it’s probably going to be a rocking winter

2002 and 2009 would immediately fit the bill if December produces

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10 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

new c3s, warm dec, transitional jan, and great feb
image0.jpg?ex=6561749c&is=654eff9c&hm=17135511a52cf26ad113e653e42b8430220ad017ec7cd947465fffe5d5b2367e&
image0.jpg?ex=656174a4&is=654effa4&hm=6ab4e6014c6747455db0d336501722c612d4b858dbec8ee28f812bb25712118d&

image0.jpg?ex=656174ac&is=654effac&hm=5fb7008ecb8d009e6bc5240f01f6b7e9ccf1c1635c877b5ae8ddc3280713f1a5&

image.png.97374d79eef598a3fb7bb3eb3cc829bd.png

That's some really nice high latitude blocking for late January and February.

53 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i will say this… if December turns out good, it’s probably going to be a rocking winter

2002 and 2009 would immediately fit the bill if December produces

If we manage even a climo December temp and precip wise, I'll consider it a win.

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17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If we manage even a climo December temp and precip wise, I'll consider it a win.

Unsolicited fact: Last December in the area was generally slightly BN temp-wise and AN precip-wise.

(Yes. Luck was about as bad as possible in multiple ways that month. Our luck will be better this year.)

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:


The output on the service reminds me waaaay too much of last year. Maybe this time around (not that this has things even close to nailed af 11 days) they won’t cut and will trend in the opposite direction.

fd120d642c085b2762c2148bbd32a376.jpg

Could you imagine if this trended south and became a big wave along a front that gave us a cheap 5" of snow?

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:


The output on the service reminds me waaaay too much of last year. Maybe this time around (not that this has things even close to nailed af 11 days) they won’t cut and will trend in the opposite direction.

fd120d642c085b2762c2148bbd32a376.jpg

i wouldn’t take this exact solution to heart. just get ready to see a good amount of cutters over the next month or so. that’s the Nino December M.O.

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i wouldn’t take this exact solution to heart. just get ready to see a good amount of cutters over the next month or so. that’s the Nino December M.O.

trust me, wasn’t taking the outcome to heart, it just gave me flashbacks to last year!

Good to know that is the tendency for a Nino December, though.
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2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:


trust me, wasn’t taking the outcome to heart, it just gave me flashbacks to last year!

Good to know that is the tendency for a Nino December, though.

We havent had many Ninos lately but 2 of the past 3 Ninos have been good in December. December 2002, December 2009. 2015 was a disaster though

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