November Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pacific looked more hostile the first few days of December on yesterday's and last night's runs than we saw on Tuesday/Wednesday....but as you said, it doesn't last very long. The NAO blocking is still showing up, which is probably the most important variable for a positive outlook later in the winter.

Weeklies have been quite weenie-ish beyond mid-month too and you can see one of the reasons why on the MJO/RMM plots....we emerge into weak/COD phase 8 around mid-month. Note that the phase 4/5 stuff has mostly disappeared....fewer and fewer members show significant waves into that region now. 

Some good MJO news. Hope this movements towards less Phase 3, 4, 5, continues. Can we just stay in 8, 1, 2 all winter please?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Big storms typically wait until the NAO is on the rebound towards neutral or positive 

Hopefully we have a +PNA by then.  That is some interesting energy moving across the US around Dec 4-6 though. 

[stormy]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Some good MJO news. Hope this movements towards less Phase 3, 4, 5, continues. Can we just stay in 8, 1, 2 all winter please?

NO

[TSSN+]

18z gfs with some Dec 5-6 magic 

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I've been saying watch near Dec 5th for our first possible snow event. This isn't a strong signal, but it's not that far off a really good setup..

https://ibb.co/vdN2TYW

The reason is a stronger piece of energy is dropping into the SW around Dec 1-3.. when that moves east if we have this 3-wave setup with nothing else, like a Aleutian High, then we might have a snow event to track. El Nino should keep us away from -PNA as this trends closer, but let's see..

[stormy]

A secondary thrust of very cold air will result in highs only in the upper 30's Tuesday and Wednesday for areas west of the BR.

 

[stormy]

Look at this on the 18 z Det. GFS!!

[brooklynwx99]

one day trend in the blocking is very nice. this does not look like a head fake

[ldub23]

9 minutes ago, stormy said:

Look at this on the 18 z Det. GFS!!

 

 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

31 minutes ago, stormy said:

Look at this on the 18 z Det. GFS!!

Does PSU meet the 1" snowfall criteria there? Can't quite read it 

[Eskimo Joe]

While I understand this is a single run of an operational model, the 18z GFS has a nice banana high on the Dec 5 - 8 event. That is a requirement for early season snow of any consequence, and difficult to get without Atlantic blocking. Good to see. More please.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

so people like myself, @griteater, @40/70 Benchmark, and others who had 2009 as a strong analog would have been called weenies by him, but now it’s his top analog? such bullshit

2010 is a great overall analog, but I don't love if for the polar domain due to the very low solar...NAO won't be as extreme, which isn't saying much.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

While I understand this is a single run of an operational model, the 18z GFS has a nice banana high on the Dec 5 - 8 event. That is a requirement for early season snow of any consequence, and difficult to get without Atlantic blocking. Good to see. More please.

Pretty good post from you. More please.

[brooklynwx99]

i know everyone always whines about the Pacific, but the -NAO and resultant confluence is king for you guys

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty good post from you. More please.

The oddity is the trajectory of the low track . It's essentially an Albert Clipper. Not so common in early Dec. EJ is correct though. 50-50 low. HP to the west over the GLs- results in a nice feed of cold from the north into the storm. -NAO forces the low to track to our south.

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty good post from you. More please.

When the time comes. I know I'm a deb, but I live for snow. As an Eskimo, it's part of my tradition and upbringing. Moving south of Mason-Dixon has been good for my career, but terrible for my passion.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

When the time comes. I know I'm a deb, but I live for snow. As an Eskimo, it's part of my tradition and upbringing. Moving south of Mason-Dixon has been good for my career, but terrible for my passion.

Wait are you really descended from Eskimos?

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The oddity is the trajectory of the low track . It's essentially an Albert Clipper. Not so common in early Dec. EJ is correct though. 50-50 low. HP to the west over the GLs- results in a nice feed of cold from the north into the storm. -NAO forces the low to track to our south.

It's riding the western edge of the trough, hence the trajectory looks awkward. If the axis was focused further west by another 100 miles or so, then it would appear more normal. I'm still very bearish on snowfall chances for this winter for 3 reasons:

1.) Uncooperative Pacific

2.) Uncooperative Atlantic blocking

3.) STJ will be deflected too far south and east because #2. I could see this winter setting up where DCA and IAD see a couple of Boxing Day 2010 events where Delmarva jackpots and we smoke cirrus west of the Bay. I don't think my psyche could handle another one of those.

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The oddity is the trajectory of the low track . It's essentially an Albert Clipper. Not so common in early Dec. EJ is correct though. 50-50 low. HP to the west over the GLs- results in a nice feed of cold from the north into the storm. -NAO forces the low to track to our south.

Hopefully, that goa low will be further west. 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i know everyone always whines about the Pacific, but the -NAO and resultant confluence is king for you guys

Yes but did we not get the -NAO last December only to have the Pacific crap all over it? Or is something different this time?

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yes but did we not get the -NAO last December only to have the Pacific crap all over it? Or is something different this time?

that is the exception rather than the rule. a strong -NAO almost always overpowers unless the Pacific truly sucks

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Hopefully, that goa low will be further west. 

It is on the ens mean.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

that is the exception rather than the rule. a strong -NAO almost always overpowers unless the Pacific truly sucks

I'd argue the Pacific has been more consistently hostile during that 7-year stretch than is was before (or so it seems). Like I said that pac might just be different now, who knows?

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's riding the western edge of the trough, hence the trajectory looks awkward. If the axis was focused further west by another 100 miles or so, then it would appear more normal. I'm still very bearish on snowfall chances for this winter for 3 reasons:

1.) Uncooperative Pacific

2.) Uncooperative Atlantic blocking

3.) STJ will be deflected too far south and east because #2. I could see this winter setting up where DCA and IAD see a couple of Boxing Day 2010 events where Delmarva jackpots and we smoke cirrus west of the Bay. I don't think my psyche could handle another one of those.

Ok now you are kind of ruining it.

[Weather Will]

I will say without a doubt that December 2023 is going to be One to Remember for either being the snowiest or most hyped in a long time.....

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i know everyone always whines about the Pacific, but the -NAO and resultant confluence is king for you guys

It used to be the shit. Lately I am not sure, esp for the coastal plain. Seems over here we do better with -EPO/cross polar flow. Doesn't always work out so well for the Fall line points west though.

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Ok now you are kind of ruining it.

Back to normal. 

[NorthArlington101]

I will say without a doubt that December 2023 is going to be One to Remember for either being the snowiest or most hyped in a long time.....

Do you remember last December? That might’ve been my worst month of this forum, period. Everyone was in.

[cbmclean]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

that is the exception rather than the rule. a strong -NAO almost always overpowers unless the Pacific truly sucks

Yeah, but the Pacific truly sucking has been the base state for 7+ years, so we have to at least take that into consideration.

[Eskimo Joe]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait are you really descended from Eskimos?

No, but I play one on TV. I got the nickname in college because my aunt got my an Eskimo Joe's storm chasing t-shirt from their online store, and I was that kid on campus who wore short pants and a t-shirt until January.