November Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

How many times have we seen good patterns at D11 go poof by D5, or get can kicked for 3 weeks then be so muted and torn apart the best you can hope for is 35 and flurries.

Oh yeah I wasn't blaming ya for skepticism...I totally get it. Just used your comments as an example to show said "scars" many of us are carrying, lol For me, I try not to go there (easier said than done sometimes, lol) and just live in the now of what models are showing...and finally having a legit niño. So if anything I'm happy that it appears we could get our best swing in...but do we connect? Stay tuned 

[DarkSharkWX]

the events to make the -NAO occur downstream are in the short range now p sure

[brooklynwx99]

my lord

that is a legit -NAO too… notice how the N Atl is blocked up through Europe

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

my lord

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

Let’s get these looks inside 5/7 days. As always it’s 10+ days out. 

 

56 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

How many times have we seen good patterns at D11 go poof by D5, or get can kicked for 3 weeks then be so muted and torn apart the best you can hope for is 35 and flurries.

Skepticism isn’t a bad plan given recent years. But we do have a good pattern starting basically today through next weekend. Just doesn’t look like it will do much for us except BN temps. This new -NAO dominated pattern after the 7th is still a recent arrival on guidance so caution is warranted. GEFS actually brings it in faster today on the 12z run. So far the opposite of cankicking.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Skepticism isn’t a bad plan given recent years. But we do have a good pattern starting basically today through next weekend. Just doesn’t look like it will do much for us except BN temps. This new -NAO dominated pattern after the 7th is still a recent arrival on guidance so caution is warranted. GEFS actually brings it in faster today on the 12z run. So far the opposite of cankicking.

BN temps ain’t of any use if there’s no snow to go with it. 

[nw baltimore wx]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

BN temps ain’t of any use if there’s no snow to go with it. 

To each his own, but I respectfully disagree.

[midatlanticweather]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

BN temps ain’t of any use if there’s no snow to go with it. 

Your gotta have one to get the other. Maybe it seems like wasted cold but keeping the atmosphere and surface colder can only help our chances. It is frustrating to see wasted cold. I do, however, like winter acting cold and even without snow it is welcome 

[nj2va]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

BN temps ain’t of any use if there’s no snow to go with it. 

Helps build snowpack in cold source regions. 

[DarkSharkWX]

99% correlation so its very good to see a -nao setting up rn

[Eskimo Joe]

52 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

BN temps ain’t of any use if there’s no snow to go with it. 

 It builds up Canadian snowpack. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

How many times have we seen good patterns at D11 go poof by D5, or get can kicked for 3 weeks then be so muted and torn apart the best you can hope for is 35 and flurries.

And we've also had our fair share of epic Atlantic looks and even EPO help in recent years with zilch to show for it due mostly to a muted or raging -PNA.  A huge part of our run of poor luck is the lack of a good PNA in the the PAC. So far this early in the season we are seeing signals of a decent PAC side which we definitely could use. So the LR outlooks have that going on which could be the game changer this winter.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

my lord

that is a legit -NAO too… notice how the N Atl is blocked up through Europe

PAC>ATL.....but we do finally have some PAC help early. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

And we've also had our fair share of epic Atlantic looks and even EPO help in recent years with zilch to show for it due mostly to a muted or raging -PNA.  A huge part of our run of poor luck is the lack of a good PNA in the the PAC. So far this early in the season we are seeing signals of a decent PAC side which we definitely could use. So the LR outlooks have that going on which could be the game changer this winter.

The exact position/strength of the NE Pac(Aleutian) low is equally important to the NA state(arguably more so), compared to a just a couple decades ago. Encouraging to see the guidance retrograding it further west and popping a PNA ridge in the long range. Last thing we want is that feature parking in the GoA or worse.

[CAPE]

This has been a pretty persistent theme on the ens guidance for around the 5th- an OV low/coastal transfer. EPS suggests some snow for us this run.

[Eskimo Joe]

I'd be happy with a 2" - 4" snow to rain event. Just get on the board.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

BN temps ain’t of any use if there’s no snow to go with it. 

Exactly when were BN temperatures happening last year at this time for any of us?  Take the cold first then the snow comes second that's a typical pattern around here. 

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This has been a pretty persistent theme on the ens guidance for around the 5th- an OV low/coastal transfer. EPS suggests some snow for us this run.

EPS is top tier with AK ridging popping up too

[Shaulov4]

Just now, CAPE said:

This has been a pretty persistent theme on the ens guidance for around the 5th- an OV low/coastal transfer. EPS suggests some snow for us this run.

You initially have a rainmaker (maybe some snow for the deep interior( around the 4th and a piece gets left out south. Development emerges in the gulf and leads straight to the boundary that the first storm lays out. An initially stronger system can lead to a cold secondary storm and the fresh cold injection gets pulled in. If not, we can still get a dynamic cooling event depending on low placement and strength. I do believe it will be a two storm setup as the first one ushers in a colder and perhaps snowier pattern. Don’t throw rocks if I’m wrong however.

[DarkSharkWX]

12z eps is even better, now even some ridging in AK with nice +PNA and ofc -NAO/-AO


also best snow run so far

[AtlanticWx]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

BN temps ain’t of any use if there’s no snow to go with it. 

maybe we'll get an early start to the ski season

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said:

You initially have a rainmaker (maybe some snow for the deep interior( around the 4th and a piece gets left out south. Development emerges in the gulf and leads straight to the boundary that the first storm lays out. An initially stronger system can lead to a cold secondary storm and the fresh cold injection gets pulled in. If not, we can still get a dynamic cooling event depending on low placement and strength. I do believe it will be a two storm setup as the first one ushers in a colder and perhaps snowier pattern. Don’t throw rocks if I’m wrong however.

No rock throwing lol. Sounds impressive. Probably a bit too much detail on the analysis for 10 days out though.

[Maestrobjwa]

28 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said:

You initially have a rainmaker (maybe some snow for the deep interior( around the 4th and a piece gets left out south. Development emerges in the gulf and leads straight to the boundary that the first storm lays out. An initially stronger system can lead to a cold secondary storm and the fresh cold injection gets pulled in. If not, we can still get a dynamic cooling event depending on low placement and strength. I do believe it will be a two storm setup as the first one ushers in a colder and perhaps snowier pattern. Don’t throw rocks if I’m wrong however.

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I've been saying watch near Dec 5th for our first possible snow event. This isn't a strong signal, but it's not that far off a really good setup..

https://ibb.co/vdN2TYW

The reason is a stronger piece of energy is dropping into the SW around Dec 1-3.. when that moves east if we have this 3-wave setup with nothing else, like a Aleutian High, then we might have a snow event to track. El Nino should keep us away from -PNA as this trends closer, but let's see..

[CAPE]

Just for fun, the Black Friday edition of the Euro Weeklies for late Dec, centered on Xmas.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

The exact position/strength of the NE Pac(Aleutian) low is equally important to the NA state(arguably more so), compared to a just a couple decades ago. Encouraging to see the guidance retrograding it further west and popping a PNA ridge in the long range. Last thing we want is that feature parking in the GoA or worse.

Exactly. That's what's been the flaw with an otherwise advertised great pattern. Hopefully, that does correct and park where we want it. 

[WxUSAF]

Webb is very rapidly flipping to JB level bullish on this winter lol

 

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Webb is very rapidly flipping to JB level bullish on this winter lol

 

so people like myself, @griteater, @40/70 Benchmark, and others who had 2009 as a strong analog would have been called weenies by him, but now it’s his top analog? such bullshit

[poolz1]

Let's get the digital snow thread cranking.  You would thing we would start seeing threats in the LR on the ops here soon.  That WB NAO is just a thing of beauty.  Maybe a bit of patience is needed? D10-15 with a PAC that seeds some Arctic air into the pattern may really kick things off.

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Let's get the digital snow thread cranking.  You would thing we would start seeing threats in the LR on the ops here soon.  That WB NAO is just a thing of beauty.  Maybe a bit of patience is needed? D10-15 with a PAC that seeds some Arctic air into the pattern may really kick things off.

Big storms typically wait until the NAO is on the rebound towards neutral or positive