Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 3:20 PM, CAPE said: ...the Ji pre-Christmas meltdown will commence. Expand Black Friday everyday!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 It is 39 and raining in Brunswick, that is not warm/ wet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Although we may see a milder spell first half of december, the STJ is there. Nino is starting to flex. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Not really liking the precip anomalies so far offshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 A little while ago I said that I would look at driest Nino winters since 1980 and snowfall for the Valley. The driest was 87-88 with 64% of normal precipitation (12.20"). I received 18 inches of snow which is 75% of normal snowfall for that winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2023 Author Share Posted November 21, 2023 Next week looking quite cold but dry. Fate of the winter hangs in the balance of getting a small accumulation over 1 acre of our subforum. 1 17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 6:50 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Not really liking the precip anomalies so far offshore. Expand Besides the rain today looks dry for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 6:50 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Not really liking the precip anomalies so far offshore. Expand The latest CANSIPS paints that perfectly for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 6:50 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Not really liking the precip anomalies so far offshore. Expand At least the STJ is there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 7:10 PM, stormy said: The latest CANSIPS paints that perfectly for December. Expand Soooo...a pretty canonical Nino look with us on the northern edge of the positive monthly precip anomalies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 9:00 PM, Terpeast said: At least the STJ is there. Expand But that one week, Terpeast! That ONE WEEK has the heaviest precip offshore! OH, THE HUMANITY!!! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 9:07 PM, mattie g said: Soooo...a pretty canonical Nino look with us on the northern edge of the positive monthly precip anomalies? Expand Yes, and that can be dangerous to those looking forward to a Nino wet winter. Which only happens 43% of the time in my locale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 I know we're all rooting for PSU to get his first inch by December, but I think in an El Nino year with 65-66 being one of the top analogs, we have a bit more leeway. The first inch didn't happen until January in both IAD and BWI. So this may be an exception to the rule. Stay off the ledge until at least January 15. And then do whatever you want after that date if we don't see any snow by then... but do so at your risk! If you get hurt or worse, don't sue me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 9:25 PM, Terpeast said: I know we're all rooting for PSU to get his first inch by December, but I think in an El Nino year with 65-66 being one of the top analogs, we have a bit more leeway. The first inch didn't happen until January in both IAD and BWI. So this may be an exception to the rule. Stay off the ledge until at least January 15. And then do whatever you want after that date if we don't see any snow by then... but do so at your risk! If you get hurt or worse, don't sue me. Expand If we don’t get an inch until January, this board will implode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 6:18 PM, Terpeast said: Although we may see a milder spell first half of december, the STJ is there. Nino is starting to flex. Expand Hopefully it's just the first couple weeks of December. The MJO should become favorable the later half of December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 9:25 PM, Terpeast said: I know we're all rooting for PSU to get his first inch by December, but I think in an El Nino year with 65-66 being one of the top analogs, we have a bit more leeway. The first inch didn't happen until January in both IAD and BWI. So this may be an exception to the rule. Stay off the ledge until at least January 15. And then do whatever you want after that date if we don't see any snow by then... but do so at your risk! If you get hurt or worse, don't sue me. Expand If I’ve had to bump the futility thread because we are shutout through Dec 20 the mood in these parts will be bleak coming off the negative snow obs of the last several years… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 ECMWF extended really dropped the strength of the SPV compared to yesterday... ends up weaker than average for most of December now 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 9:34 PM, LeesburgWx said: If we don’t get an inch until January, this board will implode Expand It already is on the brink of that on November 21. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 9:34 PM, LeesburgWx said: If we don’t get an inch until January, this board will implode Expand This board imploded sometime in March of last winter. We're just trapped in the event horizon of the supernova remnant. That's why the PSU inch joke seems to be stretching to infinity. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 10:11 PM, nj2va said: It already is on the brink of that on November 21. Expand Yeah, 10 days before meteorological winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 10:11 PM, brooklynwx99 said: ECMWF extended really dropped the strength of the SPV compared to yesterday... ends up weaker than average for most of December now Expand More. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 10:11 PM, brooklynwx99 said: ECMWF extended really dropped the strength of the SPV compared to yesterday... ends up weaker than average for most of December now Expand Resulting in this from the GFS / GEFS for early December. Hoping for a favorable look up top as we near later December, or even sooner, to better coincide with mid to late December snowfall climo. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 looks like our next potential shot at something as this vort rounds the trough. GEFS picks up on it well this time 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 11:39 PM, brooklynwx99 said: looks like our next potential shot at something as this vort rounds the trough. GEFS picks up on it well this time Expand 3 hits, and one to our South. (WB) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 11:46 PM, Weather Will said: 3 hits, and one to our South.You mean 29 misses? 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 6:50 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Not really liking the precip anomalies so far offshore. Expand Better than 500 miles NW of the area 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Did we ever get 3 hits on an ensemble last winter at all? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 5:27 AM, Shaulov4 said: Haha thank you, I have been lurking in the background for sometime and have been standing in the shadow of PSU and the crew for a long time, going way back to the Accuweather days. Moderated at another forum that shall not be named until it got too crazy, so just happy to be part of a community again. Oh and hello to a good friend @winter_warlocknice to see you . Expand Heyy ty bro! Good to see u again!!! I was part of another forum i wont name but they got tooo weird and controlling. Im glad to be back here where i joined 13 years ago !! This is the best weather group!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 11:46 PM, Weather Will said: 3 hits, and one to our South. (WB) Expand Ill take p-06 and p-22 plzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now