clskinsfan Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 3K showing a possibility for some light icing on Tuesday morning in the Shenandoah Valley. Something to watch at least. Temps have been trending a little colder on the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 10/28/2023 at 12:06 PM, Weather Will said: You mean this that I should not post from fantasy land? I have no idea how much it is going to snow this season but the vibe is definitely different. WB 6Z GFS Expand This will be a frigid snowy winter in the Mid Atlantic like no other. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 12:32 AM, Ji said: one EPS member had a very naughty 34 inch storm in there but i counted 30 members that gave us something between now and early December. On a side note: I dont think we have ever had a storm in the last week of November. We have had a white thanksgiving and a mid Nov Storm(a few years ago) and of course Veterans Day. But i dont remember anything ever happening the last week of November.. Expand We got 3 inches snow near Thanksgiving in 1989. I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 5:16 AM, Jebman said: We got 3 inches snow near Thanksgiving in 1989. I think. Expand Yep, 3 on the money here, and it hung around for a few days as temps were in the 30's for highs and teens for lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 What a disaster. SE ridge wins again Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 The longwave pattern on the means continues to look interesting and it's easy to see the potential. It's also a 'busy' one with shortwaves from the NPac riding over the western ridge and dropping southward, combined with spokes of vorticity rotating southward on the west side of the TPV. There is also energy moving eastward in the flow underneath the ridge. This type of (split flow) pattern will feature plenty of wave interactions, and the models will likely struggle more than usual at range. Given enough cold pressing southward, the easy path to victory early in the season would be a healthy shortwave ejecting eastward from the SW and tracking along the thermal boundary. Would need favorable timing/spacing between a southern wave and any NS energy dropping southeastward in the flow between the western ridge and the TPV. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2023 Author Share Posted November 19, 2023 The continued can-kicking of when the real cold air arrives is annoying…DCA might not get a freeze until December starts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 11:36 AM, WxUSAF said: The continued can-kicking of when the real cold air arrives is annoying…DCA might not get a freeze until December starts. Expand If we fail this year because we get a canonical Nino longwave pattern and it’s just too warm…or because even a relatively strong Nino is no longer enough to break the pacific base state, I don’t want to hear anymore “but this or that” crap. Then we KNOW. I am banking that we can still win (just less often) but this is it. If we can’t win with this years enso/qbo then shut the lights. So either way this winter will be very productive. 8 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 12:26 PM, psuhoffman said: If we fail this year because we get a canonical Nino longwave pattern and it’s just too warm…or because even a relatively strong Nino is no longer enough to break the pacific base state, I don’t want to hear anymore “but this or that” crap. Then we KNOW. I am banking that we can still win (just less often) but this is it. If we can’t win with this years enso/qbo then shut the lights. So either way this winter will be very productive. Expand or shit the blinds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 12:28 PM, CAPE said: or shit the blinds? Expand I have a nasty stomach bug so let’s not tempt fate 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 9:44 AM, Ji said: What a disaster. SE ridge wins again Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Expand Come on. That’s mostly just details emerging as the lead time shortens. There was never enough antecedent cold for that wave to be a legit snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2023 Author Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 12:26 PM, psuhoffman said: If we fail this year because we get a canonical Nino longwave pattern and it’s just too warm…or because even a relatively strong Nino is no longer enough to break the pacific base state, I don’t want to hear anymore “but this or that” crap. Then we KNOW. I am banking that we can still win (just less often) but this is it. If we can’t win with this years enso/qbo then shut the lights. So either way this winter will be very productive. Expand Oh I feel pretty sure this winter is going to be confusing enough to give both arguments ammunition. Like maybe we will get JUST above normal snow but barely miss on a few chances to have a blockbuster winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 I’m not even looking for a snow threat at this point. It’s November. What I AM looking for is STJ activity, which is an important prerequisite for snow when it eventually gets colder. All Op runs and ensembles support busy STJ: 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 Agreed, be THANKFUL that we are about to get our first decent widespread rainfall in months....(WB) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 12:44 PM, Terpeast said: I’m not even looking for a snow threat at this point. It’s November. What I AM looking for is STJ activity, which is an important prerequisite for snow when it eventually gets colder. All Op runs and ensembles support busy STJ: Expand Preach. We get above normal precip, I feel strongly we get above normal snow. It was an extremely dry winter, and year here last year. I think we topped the 5” precip mark for the year sometime around mid March. That won’t get it done. Also of interest, last year at this time our precip total was about 44”. Right now we are at 22”. Extremely dry out here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 12:40 PM, WxUSAF said: Oh I feel pretty sure this winter is going to be confusing enough to give both arguments ammunition. Like maybe we will get JUST above normal snow but barely miss on a few chances to have a blockbuster winter. Expand But in that case doesn’t it depend on HOW we miss. If one big storm gets suppressed and crushes just south of us, and another barely misses a phase or we get some Dec 2010 type BS nonsense I think it’s fair to say it was bad luck. But if we have a near to slightly above normal snowfall winter and the reason it wasn’t better was temps, some perfect track storms that produced mixed results instead of a big snow, then imo we have the answer. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 5:16 AM, Jebman said: We got 3 inches snow near Thanksgiving in 1989. I think. Expand I received 4 inches on Thanksgiving eve in 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 1:03 PM, psuhoffman said: But in that case doesn’t it depend on HOW we miss. If one big storm gets suppressed and crushes just south of us, and another barely misses a phase or we get some Dec 2010 type BS nonsense I think it’s fair to say it was bad luck. But if we have a near to slightly above normal snowfall winter and the reason it wasn’t better was temps, some perfect track storms that produced mixed results instead of a big snow, then imo we have the answer. Expand I think we need more than 1 nino to know that for sure. Bigger sample size.Now if it's a complete disaster that's different, but if we end up with say just slightly above normal snowfall and miss out on say 2 storms that was just too warm couldn't that be the randomness of weather? Im sure We've had perfect tract rainstorms in ninos before. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 it's been months since we have seen a WPC qpf map like this. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2023 Author Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 1:14 PM, Chris78 said: I think we need more than 1 nino to know that for sure. Bigger sample size.Now if it's a complete disaster that's different, but if we end up with say just slightly above normal snowfall and miss out on say 2 storms that was just too warm couldn't that be the randomness of weather? Im sure We've had perfect tract rainstorms in ninos before. Expand 97-98 had like 3 would-be HECS with temps near 40. Only the highest elevations in the Apps got any snow at all from them I think. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 1:03 PM, psuhoffman said: But in that case doesn’t it depend on HOW we miss. If one big storm gets suppressed and crushes just south of us, and another barely misses a phase or we get some Dec 2010 type BS nonsense I think it’s fair to say it was bad luck. But if we have a near to slightly above normal snowfall winter and the reason it wasn’t better was temps, some perfect track storms that produced mixed results instead of a big snow, then imo we have the answer. Expand I have to agree with this. How we miss is important information. If we get multiple great tracks, but end up getting almost all rain (Feb 1987 adjusted to today’s climate, or full 97-98 seasons on repeat) - then that’s very bad news. Keep in mind I’m not just talking about one storm, but multiple (4-6x) storms in a single winter. Otoh, if NC gets crushed and we get a near miss (2018)… or @CAPE gets hit with 20” while we smoke cirrus (multiple times in the last 5-7 years), then we probably will need another nino to get our answer. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 1:17 PM, WxUSAF said: 97-98 had like 3 would-be HECS with temps near 40. Only the highest elevations in the Apps got any snow at all from them I think. Expand That winter featured a Monster GoA low iirc. Our source region was flooded with Pacific air most of the time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 Why are we having this conversation now rather than the end of February? DC averages .1 of snow in November. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 1:26 PM, Weather Will said: Why are we having this conversation now rather than the end of February? DC averages .1 of snow in November. Expand It's not about DC. At least 1-2" of slop over the next 10 days at Mt PSU is a must have. Failure could portend a disastrous outcome for actual winter. 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 Only a few changes would give us snow on Tuesday. Place that New Hampshire high over Superior. Track the Arkansas low to southeasterrn N.C. instead of southern Ohio. Presto, 4-8 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2023 Author Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 1:20 PM, Terpeast said: I have to agree with this. How we miss is important information. If we get multiple great tracks, but end up getting almost all rain (Feb 1987 adjusted to today’s climate, or full 97-98 seasons on repeat) - then that’s very bad news. Keep in mind I’m not just talking about one storm, but multiple (4-6x) storms in a single winter. Otoh, if NC gets crushed and we get a near miss (2018)… or @CAPE gets hit with 20” while we smoke cirrus (multiple times in the last 5-7 years), then we probably will need another nino to get our answer. Expand There’s plenty of confounding factors this year though that will create enough doubt if it comes to pass. Hunga Tonga, PDO, weird Nino behavior, etc. Plus, as mentioned, we have strong Nino shutouts in the past. So while maybe some of us will think this is another brick in the inevitable wall, others will just shrug. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 1:20 PM, Terpeast said: I have to agree with this. How we miss is important information. If we get multiple great tracks, but end up getting almost all rain (Feb 1987 adjusted to today’s climate, or full 97-98 seasons on repeat) - then that’s very bad news. Keep in mind I’m not just talking about one storm, but multiple (4-6x) storms in a single winter. Otoh, if NC gets crushed and we get a near miss (2018)… or @CAPE gets hit with 20” while we smoke cirrus (multiple times in the last 5-7 years), then we probably will need another nino to get our answer. Expand Most of that action was east of me. I got in on all those events but only the storm in early Jan 22 produced over 8" here. Outside of the 2 clunker winters, it's been quite a run for coastal DE since 2017 relative to avg snowfall there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 WB latest GEFS extended looks more wet than white through 3 weeks of December, just not cold enough yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 1:42 PM, CAPE said: Most of that action was east of me. I got in on all those events but only the storm in early Jan 22 produced over 8" here. Outside of the 2 clunker winters, it's been quite a run for coastal DE since 2017 relative to avg snowfall there. Expand I stand corrected on the exact amounts in your backyard, but my point is that had those storms not occurred at all, I’d be a lot more concerned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 11:36 AM, WxUSAF said: The continued can-kicking of when the real cold air arrives is annoying…DCA might not get a freeze until December starts. Expand Not really a good sign. Trying to be optimistic but the writing may be on the wall for this winter. 3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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