WinterWxLuvr Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 10 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: It seems most winters, there's some word or phrase that just becomes the "meme" of that year. The first inch thing might just be this year's!!! Remember in 2016, around the time of the blizzard, it was the word "amped"...and I'm sure "-PNA" has appeared many times! The word “signal” is like nails on a chalkboard 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 What’s the number for the national winter cancellation hotline? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: What’s the number for the national winter cancellation hotline? 1800DIALJI 3 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The word “signal” is like nails on a chalkboard Does it send a signal to your brain signaling the frustration due to the signal. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 13 minutes ago, nj2va said: 1800DIALJI Haha excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Remains to be seen if anything materializes during this period, but the advertised h5 look is pretty damn nice. Rather see it a month later though. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 40 minutes ago, nj2va said: 1800DIALJI Wait, you’re one digit short. Oh…..never mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 1 hour ago, TSSN+ said: What’s the number for the national winter cancellation hotline? Thank you for calling the AmWx winter hotline. If this is a life-threatening emergency, please hang up and dial 911 now. -For trouble with your guaranteed cold, please press “1” -To verify if Mt. PSU has received its first inch, please press “2” -To check if the long range pattern signal has degraded, please press “3” 2 4 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Thank you for calling the AmWx winter hotline. If this is a life-threatening emergency, please hang up and dial 911 now. -For trouble with your guaranteed cold, please press “1” -To verify if Mt. PSU has received its first inch, please press “2” -To check if the long range pattern signal has degraded, please press “3” Why don’t you just tell me the kind of winter you want to have 2 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 I do like that energy dropping into the SW in the LR, for the first few days of December. It implies a bigger storm system moving across the country. Ensembles are split, but some want to develop a -PNA at the time, which I would be weary of because ENSO subsurface is + and strengthening, which actually correlates to +pna, but the slight signal for -pna is on LR models right now.. NAO has been fluctuating back and forth on models too, but if we get the -NAO scenario like the LR 18z gfs ensembles have, that piece of energy moving to us Dec 3-5 could be something to watch. We only average 2-3" of snow in December across the region. Some Winter's every piece works out like 02-03, this will be the first test I think. I know we have images of Pacific warm air in our minds from the last few Winters... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 I've been gone a few hours, anything different on the medium to long range models?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 14 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: I've been gone a few hours, anything different on the medium to long range models?? Just some mixed signals on the guaranteed cold availability for PSUs first 1" of snow. Other than that, ssdd...Ji canceled winter and Chuck is talking oscillation indices. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 30 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: I've been gone a few hours, anything different on the medium to long range models?? There’s an amped signal for a guaranteed vodka pac puke base state regime…….climate change 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 00z GFS goes with a two part storm over the holiday and really brings the heavy rain to the area on Thanksgiving - with the colder air after the 2nd storm. El Niño QPF. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 what the hell is happening with this model? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ji said: what the hell is happening with this model? To my novice eyes...this thing hasn't been right since the update last year. But perhaps someone else can weigh in on the verification scores and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 6z doubled down on turkey rain storm. Jeez. I was liking the vodka cold from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 There is a fairly persistent indication(I won't say signal) on the ensembles in the LR for a wave tracking to our south with cold air in place. This varies from run to run ofc. The 27th -30th seems to be the window. Verbatim on the 0z EPS this would be a light snow, mostly falling to our south over S VA/NC. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Snippet from Mount Holly AFD wrt Thanksgiving day- However, some models/ensemble members, most notably the 00Z GFS, depict another closed mid level low developing, resulting in surface cyclogenesis, with another round of precipitation possible on Thursday as the low slides off shore over Delmarva. For now, I`ve stayed close to a consensus blend that doesn`t include the GFS as I can`t recall another event with an evolution like this, and so far this seems to be an outlier solution. Therefore, the forecast keeps Thanksgiving dry with temperatures slightly below normal. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Snippet from Mount Holly AFD wrt Thanksgiving day- However, some models/ensemble members, most notably the 00Z GFS, depict another closed mid level low developing, resulting in surface cyclogenesis, with another round of precipitation possible on Thursday as the low slides off shore over Delmarva. For now, I`ve stayed close to a consensus blend that doesn`t include the GFS as I can`t recall another event with an evolution like this, and so far this seems to be an outlier solution. Therefore, the forecast keeps Thanksgiving dry with temperatures slightly below normal. Interesting that they’re essentially tossing the GFS’s idea from the last couple runs of a system forming down south and riding up the boundary to firehose us on Thanksgiving. Curious to see if the GFS stays its course over the next few runs or corrects back to a solution similar to the one we’ve been seeing for some time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 11 hours ago, psuhoffman said: There’s an amped signal for a guaranteed vodka pac puke base state regime…….climate change Ha! I forgot all about "base state!!" I guess that's the term from last year! Vodka pac puke?? Sounds like what you'd do the morning after too many martinis!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 10 hours ago, Ji said: what the hell is happening with this model? A butterfly farted somewhere in northwest Canada, releasing a lot of heat...so that system is now more AMPED with less of a chance of PSU getting ONE INCH, and it's only responding to the new BASE STATE! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Perhaps the pattern relaxes for December 5th? The mjo is hinting at circling through the warm phases to begin December. But that could be a very good sign for phase 7 just in time for Christmas if it does the full swing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Interesting that they’re essentially tossing the GFS’s idea from the last couple runs of a system forming down south and riding up the boundary to firehose us on Thanksgiving. Curious to see if the GFS stays its course over the next few runs or corrects back to a solution similar to the one we’ve been seeing for some time. I looked at the EPS members this morning and there were a few that had the GFS idea of developing another low. Something to keep any eye on over the next couple model cycles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 FWIW.. baltimore forecasters. Talking about possible snow here in central md... im Not buying it yet. Still too early. But still nice to see possibilities in November lol Like i said. FWIW... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 28 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: FWIW.. baltimore forecasters. Talking about possible snow here in central md... im Not buying it yet. Still too early. But still nice to see possibilities in November lol Like i said. FWIW... Justin Berk. lol. Ignore. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 30 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: FWIW.. baltimore forecasters. Talking about possible snow here in central md... im Not buying it yet. Still too early. But still nice to see possibilities in November lol Like i said. FWIW... He is the weeniest of weenies. He'd forecast snow in the middle of summer on the equator. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 GFS would be some pretty decent LE during the few days after Thanksgiving. That is how we usually score our first accums out this way. Get a streamer to set up for an hour or so. And the southern stream is active as hell. Plenty to watch for so early in the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 16 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Just some mixed signals on the guaranteed cold availability for PSUs first 1" of snow. Other than that, ssdd...Ji canceled winter and Chuck is talking oscillation indices. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 j for shits and giggles 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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