CAPE Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 A blend of ens guidance over the past few days has suggested highs in the 40s on Thanksgiving, then somewhat colder for the days to follow. Not sure I see anything different right now, but it is still a ways off and with the pattern in transition there are plenty of moving pieces. A lot depends on the interaction between the amplifying EPO ridge, the building heights in the NA, and the TPV lobe. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Winter 2023-2024: But, it’s El Nino! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 im about ready to cancel winter....2024-25 is already cancelled...though PDO looks better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 16 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No such thing as guaranteed Well, some things are. Death, taxes, and - for us - heat. Heat is always guaranteed for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ji said: im about ready to cancel winter....2024-25 is already cancelled...though PDO looks better gfs snows on us Tuesday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 the GGEM has taken our super cold Thanksgiving away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ji said: im about ready to cancel winter....2024-25 is already cancelled...though PDO looks better Why in the world are you looking that far ahead?? Stay in the present day, dang it! We're still figuring out THIS winter--mercy, dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why in the world are you looking that far ahead?? Stay in the present day, dang it! We're still figuring out THIS winter--mercy, dude! It's Ji... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ji said: the GGEM has taken our super cold Thanksgiving away Is it guaranteed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Is it guaranteed? you can take it to the bank* * Silicon Valley Bank 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 i generally agree with this winter forecast, though not with alaska making landfall on mexico (you don't see that often with el nino winters) 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 25 minutes ago, Ji said: gfs snows on us Tuesday lol CAD is always underdone at range 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 12z GFS gives us some flakes early next week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 40 minutes ago, Ji said: im about ready to cancel winter....2024-25 is already cancelled...though PDO looks better Im about to cancel 24-25 Winter.. we likely will have a +QBO to go along with Nina (same as last Winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Im about to cancel 24-25 Winter.. we likely will have a +QBO to go along with Nina (same as last Winter) im here for it--lets do it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2023 Author Share Posted November 17, 2023 41 minutes ago, Ji said: the GGEM has taken our super cold Thanksgiving away GFS and GGEM both sort of split the big rainstorm into 2 systems and the cold air follows the second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 47 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Well, some things are. Death, taxes, and - for us - heat. Heat is always guaranteed for us. Also 33 and rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS and GGEM both sort of split the big rainstorm into 2 systems and the cold air follows the second Next step is one piece is northwest of us and another piece is east and southeast of us we get no rain and the cold air is forced back into Canada and the zonal flow off the Pacific continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS and GGEM both sort of split the big rainstorm into 2 systems and the cold air follows the second The models are like the budget passers! They never deliver what they say when they say the will and kick the cold and potential storms down the road. Here we go again! I have seen this time and time again! HOWEVER, I would not mind seeing some flakes next week.. but soon we may get barely any precip and it could be a dry frontal passage! I hope not! My pessimism is rising. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 39 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Next step is one piece is northwest of us and another piece is east and southeast of us we get no rain and the cold air is forced back into Canada and the zonal flow off the Pacific continues. Ya.. I DO NOT like the trends. Not saying models have it figured out, but lately, when they do, things turn dry and less cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2023 Author Share Posted November 17, 2023 53 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS and GGEM both sort of split the big rainstorm into 2 systems and the cold air follows the second Notably the GEFS has not had these crazy swings like that last 2 runs of the GFS, although it certainly has tended to weaken the big Tuesday/Wednesday low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Im about to cancel 24-25 Winter.. we likely will have a +QBO to go along with Nina (same as last Winter) So I can book a family trip out west next winter without fear of missing a HECS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 This board can seriously f*cking suck sometimes. 6 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 We're already in mid-winter form. Canceling winter before it even starts. In a -PDO/+ENSO battle like this season, there's going to be a lot more of this. At least it won't be boring like last winter. Just look at the models... STJ is becoming more and more active. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, mattie g said: This board can seriously f*cking suck sometimes. Look, it is the same every year! When things look like they are trending wrong for our need of rain, cold, snow.. people are going to speak up. This is a definite trend on the last few model runs. Dryer systems has been a trend for many months now, so we should not be surprised. It stinks when we see these things happen, and we will express that. I agree I need to be less emotionally charged, but these Thanksgiving colder outlooks have failed multiple times the last few years. I think this should make me and others to take changes with caution. It stinks! Changing airmasses and patterns are likely to have problems! You do not need to stick around.. and but I will work on better posts! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Has winter 2033-34 been cancelled yet? Trying to plan out the next 10 years. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 23 minutes ago, Terpeast said: We're already in mid-winter form. Canceling winter before it even starts. In a -PDO/+ENSO battle like this season, there's going to be a lot more of this. At least it won't be boring like last winter. Just look at the models... STJ is becoming more and more active. This is what I'm focusing on. I love seeing the Nino start to flex, so from there we can have a little more confidence in things progressing in a fashion that many of the smart folk are foreseeing. It's November, so it's not supposed to snow IMBY, nor in the backyards of most of us on here. We need Manchester to get an inch in the next few weeks, but otherwise we just keep an eye on the progression of the atmospheric response to the Nino and hope for the best! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2023 Author Share Posted November 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: This is what I'm focusing on. I love seeing the Nino start to flex, so from there we can have a little more confidence in things progressing in a fashion that many of the smart folk are foreseeing. It's November, so it's not supposed to snow IMBY, nor in the backyards of most of us on here. We need Manchester to get an inch in the next few weeks, but otherwise we just keep an eye on the progression of the atmospheric response to the Nino and hope for the best! Sorry…if we don’t go from drought to flood status with feet of rain and highs in the 20s for thanksgiving then we might as well pack it up! And Ji and Chuck have already cancelled next winter. So see you in late 25?? 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Sorry…if we don’t go from drought to flood status with feet of rain and highs in the 20s for thanksgiving then we might as well pack it up! And Ji and Chuck have already cancelled next winter. So see you in late 25?? Winter is canceled for the foreseeable future till nuclear winter kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 WB 12Z globals all give an inch of rain within 5 days, I will take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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