Jersey Andrew Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 On 11/13/2023 at 9:28 PM, clskinsfan said: That wave the week after Thanksgiving on the GFS is something to watch imo. The setup is decent. Get the NS to phase in at the right time and it could work out. And I agree with PSU about the lack of snow by December 15th. Out here it is the same. A no snow November/early December usually means a ratter. 2016 was saved with the storm of my lifetime. Or that winter was heading to a complete disaster as well. But I dont think we see no snow in either month. We are gonna have our chances. Expand December 2009 was an aberration in the past fifteen years. 2016 blizzard saved that season but so did February 2006 and 2003. I would rather long track a Big Dog than wait for a few paltry events. Just don’t know if climate change overwhelms perfect pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 On 11/13/2023 at 9:42 PM, Jersey Andrew said: December 2009 was an aberration in the past fifteen years. 2016 blizzard saved that season but so did February 2006 and 2003. I would rather long track a Big Dog than wait for a few paltry events. Just don’t know if climate change overwhelms perfect pattern. Expand 09/10 was an aberration period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 really nice -EPO/+PNA showing up on the EPS 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Even a bit of ridging over Greenland? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 That looks like some true cold coming into the US close to Thanksgiving 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 On 11/13/2023 at 10:29 PM, midatlanticweather said: That looks like some true cold coming into the US close to Thanksgiving Expand Yup looks like all 3 major ensembles are in at least some kind of agreement with the trough and cold in the east. Looking like our first true winter temps for alot of us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 On 11/13/2023 at 10:05 PM, brooklynwx99 said: really nice -EPO/+PNA showing up on the EPS Expand Yess very nicee!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Glad my area can still get good snow following nothing significant in Nov/ Dec. What a curse lol. Maybe a case of too much analytics? Professional sports could use a little less of that too. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 On 11/13/2023 at 10:05 PM, brooklynwx99 said: really nice -EPO/+PNA showing up on the EPS Expand I’ll say this about the ongoing battle between -pdo and +enso… If the -pdo wants to throw up an aleutian ridge, we might see it keep getting amped and pushed east by aleutian lows. Then we may keep getting looks like this. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 On 11/13/2023 at 11:05 PM, Terpeast said: I’ll say this about the ongoing battle between -pdo and +enso… If the -pdo wants to throw up an aleutian ridge, we might see it keep getting amped and pushed east by aleutian lows. Then we may keep getting looks like this. Expand Yes. If we can get that Aleutian low to set up for a good chunk of the winter we are probably good to go. We should of course expect that in a Nino though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 On 11/13/2023 at 9:42 PM, Jersey Andrew said: December 2009 was an aberration in the past fifteen years. 2016 blizzard saved that season but so did February 2006 and 2003. I would rather long track a Big Dog than wait for a few paltry events. Just don’t know if climate change overwhelms perfect pattern. Expand We'll never see another 2009 - 2010 winter in our lifetimes at this latitude. On 11/13/2023 at 11:05 PM, Terpeast said: I’ll say this about the ongoing battle between -pdo and +enso… If the -pdo wants to throw up an aleutian ridge, we might see it keep getting amped and pushed east by aleutian lows. Then we may keep getting looks like this. Expand Are you in favor of that evolution or not? I'm concerned the ridge being too far east would push our trough and subsequent coastal lows too far offshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 WB 18Z GFS, some things don't change....perpetual snowhole 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 On 11/13/2023 at 11:23 PM, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS, some things don't change....perpetual snowhole Expand Stop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 On 11/13/2023 at 11:23 PM, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS, some things don't change....perpetual snowhole Expand I will take my 0.7 and call it a winter 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS, Thanksgiving chilly this run...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 On 11/13/2023 at 11:26 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Stopif model snow maps in November will irk ya, don’t check P05 of the 18z GEFS. 1’+ DC and west, but literally nada in Baltimore. And only 6 days away! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 I guess we are still in wait and see mode for Thanksgiving. WB 18Z GEFS yesterday compared to today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 On 11/13/2023 at 11:10 PM, Eskimo Joe said: We'll never see another 2009 - 2010 winter in our lifetimes at this latitude. Are you in favor of that evolution or not? I'm concerned the ridge being too far east would push our trough and subsequent coastal lows too far offshore. Expand There is always some variability in a longwave pattern, even one that seems to be locked in phase. Two winters ago we saw this in Jan after an apparently hopeless 'close the blinds pattern' 2 weeks earlier. The broad Aleutian ridge from hell(typical Nina) amped and shifted east(-EPO), bringing the cold and baroclinic boundary southward, and part of our region saw 3 snowstorms. In that particular case, 2 of the lows were a bit late developing/offshore for NW areas. Way too early to be concerned about the details though. The general looks we are currently seeing on guidance on the Pac side are pretty damn good. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 On 11/13/2023 at 11:34 PM, CAPE said: There is always some variability in a longwave pattern, even one that seems to be locked in phase. Two winters ago we saw this in Jan after an apparently hopeless 'close the blinds pattern' 2 weeks earlier. The broad Aleutian ridge from hell(typical Nina) amped and shifted east(-EPO), bringing the cold and baroclinic boundary southward, and part of our region saw 3 snowstorms. In that particular case, 2 of the lows were a bit late developing/offshore for NW areas. Way too early to be concerned about the details though. The general looks we are currently seeing on guidance on the Pac side are pretty damn good. Expand To add, here’s @griteater’s excellent -pdo/+enso analysis. You’ll like this. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Close 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 On 11/13/2023 at 11:45 PM, Terpeast said: To add, here’s @griteater’s excellent -pdo/+enso analysis. You’ll like this. Expand Interesting how the NAO was mostly negative throughout the winter in all but Super Nino's. That is a weenie post for us if I have ever seen one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 On 11/14/2023 at 12:03 AM, clskinsfan said: Interesting how the NAO was mostly negative throughout the winter in all but Super Nino's. That is a weenie post for us if I have ever seen one. Expand I noticed that blocking signal, too and addressed it in my outlook. I don’t know why we get a stronger signal on the atlantic side as a result of that -pdo/+enso pac combination, but it is there. And combine that with a -qbo. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 On 11/13/2023 at 10:05 PM, brooklynwx99 said: really nice -EPO/+PNA showing up on the EPS Expand I’ll take that look on repeat all winter, please. 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Interesting look on the 0z GEFS. Hint of a wave coming eastward in the southern stream with cold in place. Nice look up top- even has a bit of a -NAO. Verbatim there is a little snow across the region on the mean just beyond this timeframe. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 On 11/14/2023 at 10:03 AM, CAPE said: Interesting look on the 0z GEFS. Hint of a wave coming eastward in the southern stream with cold in place. Nice look up top- even has a bit of a -NAO. Verbatim there is a little snow across the region on the mean just beyond this timeframe.We need to induce an early snowfall to avoid a psu meltdown Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 On 11/14/2023 at 11:15 AM, Ji said: We need to induce an early snowfall to avoid a psu meltdown Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Expand ..and save winter for the greater DC area 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 the book hasn’t been wrong yet… 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 Santa bringing nothinburgers with some coal fries as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 On 11/14/2023 at 12:02 PM, psuhoffman said: the book hasn’t been wrong yet… Expand It was interesting that you brought it up in sort of a negative context, given the ens guidance has been depicting a pretty favorable h5 pattern towards the end of the month, and there have been plenty of good vibe posts made wrt that over the past few days. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 On 11/14/2023 at 11:48 AM, CAPE said: ..and save winter for the greater DC area Expand He was completely correct last year … 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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