CAPE Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 I would expect Dec to be what it usually is, regardless of ENSO state. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 Here is a troll map from jb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 On 11/12/2023 at 1:32 AM, CAPE said: I would expect Dec to be what it usually is, regardless of ENSO state. Expand Yeah really. Sad how we miss Decembers of yore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 On 11/12/2023 at 1:53 AM, Daniel Boone said: Yeah really. Sad how we miss Decembers of yore. Expand I could see a little snow towards the end of Dec. We were close last winter, but ofc Ninas almost always find a way to screw this region, esp early. Ninos otoh, tend to find a way to work for the MA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2023 Author Share Posted November 12, 2023 On 11/12/2023 at 1:38 AM, Ji said: Here is a troll map from jb Expand DT with a helpful community note style response 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 On 11/12/2023 at 2:06 AM, WxUSAF said: DT with a helpful community note style response Expand It's shocking he can't post here anymore. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 LMAO! DT will never change man. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 On 11/12/2023 at 1:38 AM, Ji said: Here is a troll map from jb Expand Short Pump screwed. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 On 11/11/2023 at 8:23 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Not all eruptions are the same...I'd imagine it's only the explosive ones that impact weather. Expand Do you usually have explosive eruptions?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 Eps and gfs trended unfavorably last night especially for Thanksgiving. Looks like last years ninaAs Dan Snyder says…happy thanksgiving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 Even with the h5 looks of the last few runs the EPS had a mild Thanksgiving. GEFS looked colder, but has since trended milder. I mean, what are we looking for exactly lol. Right now it looks pretty dry with temps 55-60. Nice weather to fry a turkey or whatever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 I’m good with a mild Thanksgiving, don’t want to freeze my butt off in the 5 mile turkey trot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 On 11/12/2023 at 1:19 PM, CAPE said: Even with the h5 looks of the last few runs the EPS had a mild Thanksgiving. GEFS looked colder, but has since trended milder. I mean, what are we looking for exactly lol. Right now it looks pretty dry with temps 55-60. Nice weather to fry a turkey or whatever. Expand Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2023 Author Share Posted November 12, 2023 On 11/12/2023 at 1:19 PM, CAPE said: Even with the h5 looks of the last few runs the EPS had a mild Thanksgiving. GEFS looked colder, but has since trended milder. I mean, what are we looking for exactly lol. Right now it looks pretty dry with temps 55-60. Nice weather to fry a turkey or whatever. Expand EPS drops the AO well negative at the end. I don’t hate it. As for my perfect thanksgiving weather, I’d say upper 40s/low 50s for high with some sun and lows in the upper 20s. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 On 11/12/2023 at 2:36 PM, WxUSAF said: EPS drops the AO well negative at the end. I don’t hate it. As for my perfect thanksgiving weather, I’d say upper 40s/low 50s for high with some sun and lows in the upper 20s. Expand This is the reason I am paying attention to the ens runs towards the end of the month- to get an idea how the pattern progresses as we head into the beginning of winter. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 By the numbers the 0z EPS at the end of the run has a significantly-EPO/WPO, AO is neutral/slightly negative, NAO slightly positive, -PNA. GEPS is similar. GEFS trends the PNA into positive territory by day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 On 11/12/2023 at 2:06 AM, WxUSAF said: DT with a helpful community note style response Expand When the average mental age of your followers is 8, posting a 1080hr clown map is par for the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 On 11/12/2023 at 1:38 AM, Ji said: Here is a troll map from jb Expand Looks like 5-6” imby by the day after Christmas. I take this troll map, and gladly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 On 11/12/2023 at 1:38 AM, Ji said: Here is a troll map from jb Expand Gotta love JBs snow maps. even if they are 6 weeks out lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 On 11/12/2023 at 1:32 AM, CAPE said: I would expect Dec to be what it usually is, regardless of ENSO state. Expand Depends where u live i guess. People up in northern new England seem to have much more severe decembers then people in mid Atlantic. I think the enso state affects the mid Atlantic more then it does the northern new england area.... i m o 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 On 11/12/2023 at 2:06 AM, WxUSAF said: DT with a helpful community note style response Expand Gotta love Joe Bastardi's passion lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 On 11/12/2023 at 1:38 AM, Ji said: Here is a troll map from jb Expand Isn't that basically climo? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 On 11/12/2023 at 6:10 PM, osfan24 said: Isn't that basically climo? Expand Yea there's nothing remarkable about that map to be honest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 WB latest EURO weekly....no torch for Christmas week yet.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2023 Author Share Posted November 12, 2023 Nino^ 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 Nothing Nino about this.. strong -PNA it looks like for the month of November https://ibb.co/3dppvDs https://ibb.co/YPPdM43 Like I said before, slight correlation to February, but not December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 Sorry wrong spot to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 WB 18Z GFS.....Storm 1, 2, 3.... signs of Nino....welcome rains hopefully on the way the next 2 weeks. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucketts Life Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 On 11/12/2023 at 11:03 PM, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS.....Storm 1, 2, 3.... signs of Nino....welcome rains hopefully on the way the next 2 weeks. Expand This would be quite the drought buster for this area. I would be ecstatic if 50% of that fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 18Z GEFS has storm 1. Then it shifts trough to West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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