November Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Terpeast]

The pacific is much better now than it was a couple months ago. It’s not ideally where we want it to be yet, obviously. But it’s slowly been getting better. If it backtracks in Dec-Jan though, this winter is going to be an uphill battle  

For now, we’re still in the game. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

With the recent pacific thermal profile the way it is I doubt blocking can overcome a bad pacific longwave pattern anymore. The equation has tilted against us in that regard. 

i respectfully disagree. we haven’t had a legit Nino in years and those often force a SE trough regardless of the Pacific

if we do get a strong -NAO this year, it will be much more effective than it was last year

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i respectfully disagree. we haven’t had a legit Nino in years and those often force a SE trough regardless of the Pacific

if we do get a strong -NAO this year, it will be much more effective than it was last year

This seems like two ships passing in the night.  Im talking about our ability to overcome a truly awful pac longwave pattern. A Nino pattern isn’t typically a hostile pacific pattern.  It can occasionally be if it’s too strong or the north pac low gets displaced too far east. It can be ruined by a raging positive AO sometimes. But “a crap pacific longwave pattern” isn’t a hallmark of a Nino.  Yes we can get a -PNA as a wave crashed the west coast on a Nino but that feature alone isn’t a “bad pac” the way I mean. I’m talking about the Nina ish persistent central pac ridge and corresponding deep western trough base state we’ve been stuck in much of the last 7 years. 

Saying “we won’t know if we can overcome a bad pac until we get a good pac” doesn’t really make sense wrt my point. 

[winter_warlock]

On 11/3/2023 at 6:58 AM, aldie 22 said:

At some point some consistent moisture needs to start showing up in these model runs...this feels pretty dry leading into winter to me

Intresting read!!!  FWIW..  .

https://www.weatherandradar.com/weather-news/the-polar-vortex-is-strengthening-should-we-be-concerned--7p5Yy8rMorJf4c3wigX1FP

 

[clskinsfan]

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree there are certainly too many unreasonable people anywhere...but there does seem to be a higher concentration of them in our area compared to other places I've lived or spent significant time.  

Its the center of the countries politics. So people ONLINE tend to be very split. But not in real life. We are all just trying to survive until retirement.

I read your post a bit ahead of here about your thoughts on a conflicted winter. One thing that has my interest are the sst cold anomalies in the north central Atlantic. They were there in 2009 as well. And we are seeing some signs of upwelling on the east coast already. Although the difference in ocean temp from 14 years ago is clear on the maps. The majority of my guess has to do with the tendency for storms to climb the coast this fall. And I am probably just a weenie looking for anything that reminds me of 09-10. 

 

[Weather Will]

Teleconnections are not good the next two weeks.  Hopefully we see improvement as we head into December.  Until I see a sustained + PNA and a -AO, I am in standby mode for any winter weather.  To the point where I just want precipitation. Next 2 weeks remain dry.

[CAPE]

Remains to be seen how exactly the pattern evolves beyond mid month. As the strong TPV north of AK breaks down, the latest GEFS run digs a trough further east over the Aleutians, with a downstream EPO ridge developing in a better spot. That places a trough in the central US that would progress eastward bringing a cold airmass for the end of the month.

 

[Chris78]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Remains to be seen how exactly the pattern evolves beyond mid month. As the strong TPV north of AK breaks down, the latest GEFS run digs a trough further east over the Aleutians, with a downstream EPO ridge developing in a better spot. That places a trough in the central US that would progress eastward bringing a cold airmass for the end of the month.

 

Not sure why some (not you) are freaking out over not having a great pattern in the first half of November.

If we were abnormally cold in November it would still mean rain except for the west highlands.

And if November was cold December would probably snap back and be way above normal.

 

[aldie 22]

28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Remains to be seen how exactly the pattern evolves beyond mid month. As the strong TPV north of AK breaks down, the latest GEFS run digs a trough further east over the Aleutians, with a downstream EPO ridge developing in a better spot. That places a trough in the central US that would progress eastward bringing a cold airmass for the end of the month.

 

funny because Webb just canceled December on X

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Not sure why some (not you) are freaking out over not having a great pattern in the first half of November.

If we were abnormally cold in November it would still mean rain except for the west highlands.

And if November was cold December would probably snap back and be way above normal.

 

Seeing that TPV fall apart is a good sign. The last thing we want at this juncture is a strong, consolidated SPV, especially with a reflection at h5 in that location.

[aldie 22]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

funny because Webb just canceled December on X

December is starting to come into view on long range NWP guidance & the latest JMA, CFSv2, & ECMWF weeklies all agree on a strong +NAO/+AO/-PNA becoming established within the next 3-4 weeks. Western-SW US troughing + eastern US-SE Canada ridge pattern (a -TNH) showing up in December is one of the classic hallmarks of a strong, east-based El Niño.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

funny because Webb just canceled December on X

Well there is some disagreement on the pattern progression. EPS keeps us on the mild side, while the GEPS is more like the GEFS but not as cold for the east. That said, we always know what he is gonna push.

[WxUSAF]

Even JB is predicting a AN December I think so it won’t exactly be a shock. I don’t think we have a December 2015 redux with shorts weather to Hudson Bay though. My wag is that we get *some* snow and a chilly period (4-7 days) or two. 

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

December is starting to come into view on long range NWP guidance & the latest JMA, CFSv2, & ECMWF weeklies all agree on a strong +NAO/+AO/-PNA becoming established within the next 3-4 weeks. Western-SW US troughing + eastern US-SE Canada ridge pattern (a -TNH) showing up in December is one of the classic hallmarks of a strong, east-based El Niño.

He will always, always push a solution that gives him snow and the east coast nada.

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Not sure why some (not you) are freaking out over not having a great pattern in the first half of November.

If we were abnormally cold in November it would still mean rain except for the west highlands.

And if November was cold December would probably snap back and be way above normal.

 

We’ve had several BN Novembers in the last decade. I think it’s maybe the one month that’s trending cooler in the most recent climate period? And that’s done and meant jack shit for our subsequent winters. 

[Eskimo Joe]

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

We’ve had several BN Novembers in the last decade. I think it’s maybe the one month that’s trending cooler in the most recent climate period? And that’s done and meant jack shit for our subsequent winters. 

Yea we've definitely had some head fakes in November where things get cold and even a rogue surprise snow event around Thanksgiving (2013?). Then we warm back in December and folks like me and Ji screech. I'm not asking for some vodka cold December like 1989, just don't want to be mowing the grass while the Christmas decorations are up.

[WVclimo]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

We’ve had several BN Novembers in the last decade. I think it’s maybe the one month that’s trending cooler in the most recent climate period? And that’s done and meant jack shit for our subsequent winters. 

For my neck of the woods, we look to be on track for the 14th November in the past 17 years with total precip for the month below the long-term mean.  Only AN months in that time were in 2011, 2018 and 2022.

At MRB, the mean for the entire period of record (since 1926) is 2.85” but since 2000 it has only been 2.46”

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

He will always, always push a solution that gives him snow and the east coast nada.

Starting to wonder if he and a certain poster in the enso thread are the same person, lol

[brooklynwx99]

C3S is still insistent on a more CP-type pattern as we head into the back half of winter. looks better than the October run

[Eskimo Joe]

12 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

Intresting read!!!  FWIW..  .

https://www.weatherandradar.com/weather-news/the-polar-vortex-is-strengthening-should-we-be-concerned--7p5Yy8rMorJf4c3wigX1FP

 

That post is over a month old.

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

He will always, always push a solution that gives him snow and the east coast nada.

And last year at least he was right.  Every.  Single.  Time.  I find it hard to hate on him until he is actually incorrect for once.

He's actually from very near my hometown in central/SE North Carolina.  Not sure why he has the feud with the East Coast snow weenies but his joy at their suffering is unseemly.  

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Then we warm back in December and folks like me and Ji screech.

I'm too lazy to look at the numbers but last December actually wasn't that warm as averages go.  I think it was a actually a bit BN here at RDU.  But of course most of that was due to the epic Xmas week cold snap.  Every time systems came through the SER flexed and the east coast had a classic warm wet/cold dry.

My one bar is NOT being ~80 F on Xmas day like in 2015 at my parents house..  I'm legitimately concerned.

[WxUSAF]

16 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

And last year at least he was right.  Every.  Single.  Time.  I find it hard to hate on him until he is actually incorrect for once.

He's actually from very near my hometown in central/SE North Carolina.  Not sure why he has the feud with the East Coast snow weenies but his joy at their suffering is unseemly.  

Eh...I think he was honking that Xmas time pretty darn hard last year for the east coast.  Then when it turned into a cutter he got very belligerent, defensive, and turned into this punitive anti-weenie persona.  

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That post is over a month old.

Oh ok. My bad i had just saw it lol

[Chris78]

Not an awful look for later in the month. 

Higher heights up into western Canada. Generally average to below average temps east of the Rockies. 

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Not an awful look for later in the month. 

Higher heights up into western Canada. Generally average to below average temps east of the Rockies. 

Its a pretty +pdo look

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Its a pretty +pdo look

[Weather Will]

Since it is a slow week ahead, will post the latest WB EURO control for December which is perfectly acceptable.

[WinterWxLuvr]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Since it is a slow week ahead, will post the latest WB EURO control for December which is perfectly acceptable.

Euro monthly control is money. I’m excited now

[CAPE]

The advertised pattern for the end of the month into the beginning of Dec is one we would love to see more of going forward. Verbatim there will probably be some snow for the western highlands, and not out of the question that places just west of the Fall line see a bit of snow during this period. Looks seasonably chilly at the very least.