WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 6z GFS kicks us off into wishcast season 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 6z GFS kicks us off into wishcast season You mean this that I should not post from fantasy land? I have no idea how much it is going to snow this season but the vibe is definitely different. WB 6Z GFS 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 WB 6Z GEFS, first week of November will be chilly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 33 minutes ago, Weather Will said: You mean this that I should not post from fantasy land? I have no idea how much it is going to snow this season but the vibe is definitely different. WB 6Z GFS Dang, I was just coming here to post that! I’m ready for a HECS after the last few years! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 12z CMC has first flakes for NE MD in ~5 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 Not sure the lowlands see first flakes as the GFS op has been suggesting, but nice to see h5 looks like this in the near term. A month later this might be pretty interesting. As it stands, the western highlands may very well see some snow during these 2 periods. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not sure the lowlands see first flakes as the GFS op has been suggesting, but nice to see h5 looks like this in the near term. A month later this might be pretty interesting. As it stands, the western highlands may very well see some snow during these 2 periods. Also good to see troughing n of hawaii, and as it moves east, another trough is about to reload to its west. I’m seeing that as a great sign 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 It's finally time to stop tracking ENSO for most of us. We got us a Nino, now lets see what it can do. 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's finally time to stop tracking ENSO for most of us. We got us a Nino, now lets see what it can do. Yeah, we have a pretty good idea on this nino. I’m mostly tracking the mid lat pac and pdo 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, we have a pretty good idea on this nino. I’m mostly tracking the mid lat pac and pdo It's all about how the atmosphere responds now. This is going to be a moderate to maybe strong event by the numbers, but that doesn't mean all that much at this juncture. PDO trend is encouraging. Lets see if the Aleutian low can get established, and in a favorable location. Pretty important in order for us to get the outcome we all want. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2023 Author Share Posted October 28, 2023 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's finally time to stop tracking ENSO for most of us. We got us a Nino, now lets see what it can do. The only thing this Nino is guaranteed to produce is an Xmas torch. Lock it up. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The only thing this Nino is guaranteed to produce is an Xmas torch. Lock it up. Yep. Pay no attention between Dec 20th and around mid-Jan (barring some unforseen wrinkle of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: The only thing this Nino is guaranteed to produce is an Xmas torch. Lock it up. Probably lol. As usual, patience will be required. Mid Jan into early March will likely be our wheelhouse, if there is to be one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2023 Author Share Posted October 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Probably lol. As usual, patience will be required. Mid Jan into early March will likely be our wheelhouse, if there is to be one. WDI for *some* sort of December snowfall is pretty high. I’m hoping we can grab a 2-4” type deal at least before shorts weather for Santa. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: WDI for *some* sort of December snowfall is pretty high. I’m hoping we can grab a 2-4” type deal at least before shorts weather for Santa. Yeah it has been awhile, outside of a brief flizzard that some of us saw last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 December 1982 had a decent snowfall mid-month. Hopefully we can pull off something like that while we wait all winter for our one big snow in mid-February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 2 hours ago, Terpeast said: Also good to see troughing n of hawaii, and as it moves east, another trough is about to reload to its west. I’m seeing that as a great sign Is that because it help build a western ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Is that because it help build a western ridge? There are always variations, but the short answer is yes.. it leads to a +PNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 There are always variations, but the short answer is yes.. it leads to a +PNA.We take. For the love of god, please no sustained -PNA this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 26 minutes ago, jayyy said: We take. For the love of god, please no sustained -PNA this winter Just in general: Nina= Aleutian ridge = -PNA Nino = Aleutian low = +PNA Plenty of other variables/modulators though, so these teleconnections are far from locked in or static. With the overall increase in ocean heat content, this stuff becomes even harder to predict. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 EURO still having trouble forecasting cold air even 2 weeks out. Compare weekly run from two weeks ago compared to last night. We are in for some wild forecast swings this year....(WB) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 WB latest EURO weekly for November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 ^Sign me up. Near normal to slightly below normal temps? Outstanding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: WDI for *some* sort of December snowfall is pretty high. I’m hoping we can grab a 2-4” type deal at least before shorts weather for Santa. Getting 2" - 4" areawide from a Clipper on Christmas Eve that resets the pattern for an epic January and February would be amazing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Is that because it help build a western ridge? Yes, and help sustain it long enough for us to get good chances for double digit snowstorms. A trough north of Hawaii is a classic +ENSO/+PDO/+PNA atmospheric pattern. Since we still have a -PDO (albeit not as extreme as it was a month or two ago), we're pinning hopes on it decoupling so that we can still get +PNA. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yes, and help sustain it long enough for us to get good chances for double digit snowstorms. A trough north of Hawaii is a classic +ENSO/+PDO/+PNA atmospheric pattern. Since we still have a -PDO (albeit not as extreme as it was a month or two ago), we're pinning hopes on it decoupling so that we can still get +PNA. Awesome. I'm hoping we don't get some big 18"+ event this year. I don't want to spend that time in a windowless operations center while nothing happens. I'd rather we get smaller 6" - 10" events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Awesome. I'm hoping we don't get some big 18"+ event this year. I don't want to spend that time in a windowless operations center while nothing happens. I'd rather we get smaller 6" - 10" events. That’s probably more likely given all the mixed signals we have now. But all it takes is one to go ka-boom, and as ckskinsfan would say, we get obliterated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 First widespread freeze outside the Beltways on Th. Am. WB 6Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 ^my birthday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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