George’s official winter forecast 2023-2024 for the Boston area

[George001]

Factors:

El Nino: east leaning high end strong to low end super, ONI of 1.8-2.0. MEI expected to be lower, but still in strong nino territory. Regardless, the El Niño is expected to be quite powerful and a major pattern driver. 

Polar region: +NAO expected, with a strong and circular polar vortex parked over the North Pole. The Siberian snowcover is advancing at a below normal rate, which favors a strong polar vortex and +NAO in the winter. The solar max also is correlated with a +NAO. 

Pacific pattern: +EPO, -PNA expected early on, transitioning to weakly -EPO and +PNA in Feb-Mar. The PDO is rising, but I am expecting there to be a “lag effect” where it takes a few months to break out of the raging -PDO pattern that has been taking place the past couple of years. 

AGW: The climate has changed, we are significantly warmer than we were during some of my analogs (72-73 being my top analog, and 57-58 being another one). Therefore, the expected temp profile needs to be adjusted a few degrees higher for these analogs to adjust for the modern climate.

Storm track: Right now we are seeing storms move across the Pacific Northwest and are tracking well west of the area, similar to last winter. It is likely that this is related to the -PDO. I do think that will change in Feb-Mar, but overall I expect the storm track to remain inland, rather than the slightly offshore track that would lead to snowier outcomes for the Boston area. This due to a combination of the expected lack of blocking and western troughing during the first half of winter. 

Snow forecast: 20-30 inches of snow for the Boston area, +4 to +5 AN DJF. 

What could go wrong? 

A lot. The El Niño could be weaker than expected, especially the MEI. A polar vortex split is highly unlikely due to the factors I mentioned above, but a disruption is possible. This could lead to a more wintry outcome than expected, but could also lead to a winter like last year if the cold air is on the other side of the globe. It is weather after all, and weather is humbling for even the best meteorologists. It would be foolish for an amateur weenie like myself to be arrogant enough to think I have it all figured out, but I sure as hell am going to give it a shot. If I’m wrong, I will learn from it. I love the cold and snow, but the factors I am looking at have me leaning towards lows tracking to our west, which is a mild outcome for New England. That said, I do think we will have a couple shots for a good old fashioned nor’easter/blizzard once the pacific starts to cooperate a bit more in Feb-Mar (expected due to Nino climo + weakening -PDO regime). I don’t think we will get a ton of opportunities, but I do think the window will be just enough that we get one to break our way. 

 

 

[George001]

For my analogs, I am leaning more towards 1991-1992, 1997-1998 (weaker nino obviously, but I think the general pattern will be similar), and 1972-1973 than 2009-2010 and 2002-2003. The reason why I don’t like the 09-10 and 02-03 analogs is the fall pattern is different. The storm track is more north and it is significantly warmer. In previous winter forecasts I made, I failed to take the fall pattern into account, which resulted in my analogs being bad. 2018-2019 is not a great enso match, but I think it’s a decent analog for the pacific pattern. That winter had lots of storms tracking across the pacific northwest, and then when the storm track shifted south we got a nice noreaster in March.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, George001 said:

Factors:

El Nino: east leaning high end strong to low end super, ONI of 1.8-2.0. MEI expected to be lower, but still in strong nino territory. Regardless, the El Niño is expected to be quite powerful and a major pattern driver. 

Polar region: +NAO expected, with a strong and circular polar vortex parked over the North Pole. The Siberian snowcover is advancing at a below normal rate, which favors a strong polar vortex and +NAO in the winter. The solar max also is correlated with a +NAO. 

Pacific pattern: +EPO, -PNA expected early on, transitioning to weakly -EPO and +PNA in Feb-Mar. The PDO is rising, but I am expecting there to be a “lag effect” where it takes a few months to break out of the raging -PDO pattern that has been taking place the past couple of years. 

AGW: The climate has changed, we are significantly warmer than we were during some of my analogs (72-73 being my top analog, and 57-58 being another one). Therefore, the expected temp profile needs to be adjusted a few degrees higher for these analogs to adjust for the modern climate.

Storm track: Right now we are seeing storms move across the Pacific Northwest and are tracking well west of the area, similar to last winter. It is likely that this is related to the -PDO. I do think that will change in Feb-Mar, but overall I expect the storm track to remain inland, rather than the slightly offshore track that would lead to snowier outcomes for the Boston area. This due to a combination of the expected lack of blocking and western troughing during the first half of winter. 

Snow forecast: 20-30 inches of snow for the Boston area, +4 to +5 AN DJF. 

What could go wrong? 

A lot. The El Niño could be weaker than expected, especially the MEI. A polar vortex split is highly unlikely due to the factors I mentioned above, but a disruption is possible. This could lead to a more wintry outcome than expected, but could also lead to a winter like last year if the cold air is on the other side of the globe. It is weather after all, and weather is humbling for even the best meteorologists. It would be foolish for an amateur weenie like myself to be arrogant enough to think I have it all figured out, but I sure as hell am going to give it a shot. If I’m wrong, I will learn from it. I love the cold and snow, but the factors I am looking at have me leaning towards lows tracking to our west, which is a mild outcome for New England. That said, I do think we will have a couple shots for a good old fashioned nor’easter/blizzard once the pacific starts to cooperate a bit more in Feb-Mar (expected due to Nino climo + weakening -PDO regime). I don’t think we will get a ton of opportunities, but I do think the window will be just enough that we get one to break our way. 

 

 

I really respect that last paragraph....something few people realize is that the exploration of how the atmosphere can evolve differently from what one expects is probably as important, if not more so than the forecaster's anticipated evolution.

I don't agree with all of it, but really appreciate the effort. Lots of Monday morning QBs in seasonal forecasting that never put  a publication where their mouth is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, George001 said:

For my analogs, I am leaning more towards 1991-1992, 1997-1998 (weaker nino obviously, but I think the general pattern will be similar), and 1972-1973 than 2009-2010 and 2002-2003. The reason why I don’t like the 09-10 and 02-03 analogs is the fall pattern is different. The storm track is more north and it is significantly warmer. In previous winter forecasts I made, I failed to take the fall pattern into account, which resulted in my analogs being bad. 2018-2019 is not a great enso match, but I think it’s a decent analog for the pacific pattern. That winter had lots of storms tracking across the pacific northwest, and then when the storm track shifted south we got a nice noreaster in March.

I used 2018...its not a horrible analog largely due to the PAC.

I feel like there are worse matches than 2009...not perfect, but it makes my cut...especially after factoring in CC.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

[George001]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I used 2018...its not a horrible analog largely due to the PAC.

I feel like there are worse matches than 2009...not perfect, but it makes my cut...especially after factoring in CC.

 

Fair point, it’s a decent match for precip. For ENSO, I’m expecting this nino to be stronger and more east based. If I am wrong about that 2009-2010 would become a better analog. Regardless, it looks like my initial idea of a 2.2-2.3 ONI peak will be incorrect. I like the higher end of your ONI range (1.9). The enso development deviated from my expectations this October. November will be a big month for sure in regards to telling us more about ENSO development.

[George001]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I really respect that last paragraph....something few people realize is that the exploration of how the atmosphere can evolve differently from what one expects is probably as important, if not more so than the forecaster's anticipated evolution.

I don't agree with all of it, but really appreciate the effort. Lots of Monday morning QBs in seasonal forecasting that never put  a publication where their mouth is.

Appreciate the support, hopefully we get at least one big one this year. I’m interested to see if you are leaning above or below average in eastern mass for snow, based on your posts you seem to be a lot more optimistic than I am about this coming winter. Your analogs are snowier than mine, but there are some bad winters in there too. I don’t think we will truly know weather the milder forecasts or snowier ones will be correctly until mid-late January though. Even the more optimistic posters expressed agreement on December being shitty. 

[powderfreak]

19 hours ago, George001 said:

Appreciate the support, hopefully we get at least one big one this year. I’m interested to see if you are leaning above or below average in eastern mass for snow, based on your posts you seem to be a lot more optimistic than I am about this coming winter. Your analogs are snowier than mine, but there are some bad winters in there too. I don’t think we will truly know weather the milder forecasts or snowier ones will be correctly until mid-late January though. Even the more optimistic posters expressed agreement on December being shitty. 

Good stuff, George. It’s obvious you put some real time and effort into this and in the end, the learning is all the matters.  Thanks for the posts.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Where did our George go? 
 

[CoastalWx]

George likes his winters snowy!

[George001]

Update: I’m feeling pretty good about my high end strong nino call (1.9 ONI peak seems likely). The storm track so far has been to our west, and based on how December has gone I’m feeling pretty good about that as well. There are a few things I got wrong though. One was that I expected the PDO to increase, and it actually decreased more. That could result in a more unfavorable pacific later in the winter. However, it looks like I also got the arctic pattern very wrong. I said I expected a stronger than normal PV, and a split is highly unlikely. There is now cross guidance support for a polar vortex split, and trying to be as objective as I can I’m not going to ignore that. I don’t think it will make much of a difference for my Dec-Jan forecast, but it very well could for Feb-Mar. The issue is, if we get skunked Jan it will be very difficult to make up the snowfall deficit even if we do get a favorable pattern from the PV split. The pacific is still a concern, and due to this I don’t see the truly high end months like Feb 2015, Jan 2011, Jan 2022, Mar 2018 etc being in the cards. That’s why I am sticking to my 20-30 inch snowfall forecast for the Boston area.