lee59 Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 I did not see from the NWS wind or rain reports from last nights storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 4 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: I never heard this before, super interesting! Yeah Krakatau 1883 was an absolutely enormous eruption, over 3x larger than Pinatubo 1991. The amount of particulate matter and gas dispersing around the globe in the aftermath of that eruption would’ve been immense. The skies after were immortalized in various artwork from that period (“The Scream”). Cool, nice find! It was also one of the worst movies ever made. I know, my dad took me to see it when I was a kid. Don't even think you can find a copy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 Tomorrow and Wednesday will be partly sunny but unseasonably cold. Temperatures will peak in the 30s tomorrow and Wednesday in much of the region. Flurries are possible, especially tomorrow. A few areas outside of New York City could see a heavier snow shower that could briefly coat the ground. A moderating trend should commence on Thursday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around November 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.80°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter. Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar ENSO/PDO conditions: December 1972. The SOI was not available today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.317 today. On November 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.015 (RMM). The November 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.141 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.3° (1.6° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 From a breezy high of 52 down to 35 quickly, chilliest since Feb 25th tues/wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 6 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: I never heard this before, super interesting! Yeah Krakatau 1883 was an absolutely enormous eruption, over 3x larger than Pinatubo 1991. The amount of particulate matter and gas dispersing around the globe in the aftermath of that eruption would’ve been immense. The skies after were immortalized in various artwork from that period (“The Scream”). Cool, nice find! https://allthatsinteresting.com/krakatoa-eruption 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 25 here right now. Minimum for the month is 22.5 on 11/25. Minimum for 11/2022 was 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 34 here HRRR has widespread snow showers this afternoon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 28, 2023 Author Share Posted November 28, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: 34 here HRRR has widespread snow showers this afternoon Quite the challenge between all dry global models and scattered dustings of the mesoscale models for NYC metro (HRRR, RAP). 20F TD/T spread will dry out the potential for a flurry. I'll just go for a flurry NYC metro. Babysitting. Not monitoring AM WX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, wdrag said: Quite the challenge between all dry global models and scattered dustings of the mesoscale models for NYC metro (HRRR, RAP). 20F TD/T spread will dry out the potential for a flurry. I'll just go for a flurry NYC metro. Babysitting. Not monitoring AM WX. Hoping this holds up as it continues to moves southeast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 Through November 27, both New York City and Philadelphia are continuing their longest streaks on record during which less than 1" daily snowfall was measured. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 Per friend in Trenton moderate snow showers ongoing. Radar supports this. Dirt is white and starting to stick on the grass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 Ground whitening snow squall this morning at home just north of Philly, temp dropped form 34 down to 30 degrees. Locations in the counties to my west reporting 0.3". 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 NCEP probably wants to examine why the HRRR has issues resolving downslope...it seems to overdo these sort of events all the time where no other models show anything. It seems outside of the cold bias in ptype beyond hour 12 to be the main problem the HRRR has. I think its partly why it has not yet been run to 60-84 which was planned to have happened by 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Through November 27, both New York City and Philadelphia are continuing their longest streaks on record during which less than 1" daily snowfall was measured. This record should have an asterisk. Much of NYC did have over an inch if I remember correctly. I think the only station not having over an inch in the NYC area was Central Parks .9 of an inch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 33 minutes ago, lee59 said: This record should have an asterisk. Much of NYC did have over an inch if I remember correctly. I think the only station not having over an inch in the NYC area was Central Parks .9 of an inch. That’s correct 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 1 hour ago, MANDA said: Per friend in Trenton moderate snow showers ongoing. Radar supports this. Dirt is white and starting to stick on the grass. I'm working in Lakewood, snowing here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 53 minutes ago, lee59 said: This record should have an asterisk. Much of NYC did have over an inch if I remember correctly. I think the only station not having over an inch in the NYC area was Central Parks .9 of an inch. Yes. Central Park reported the lowest amount (0.9” vs JFK’s 1.0” on February 27). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 Hearing of multiple rollover mva's in western Sullivan County with the snow squalls/showers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 From NWS Binghamton: Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1114 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023 NYZ056-057-PAZ040-281715- Broome NY-Delaware NY-Northern Wayne PA- 1114 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023 ...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT PARTS OF BROOME...DELAWARE...AND NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES... HAZARDS...A band of heavy snow accompanied by winds of 20 MPH which can rapidly reduce visibility to less than a quarter of a mile. A quick inch of snow could fall and this will cause slippery travel conditions. Use caution and plan some extra time to reach your destination. LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 1112 AM EST, a band of heavy snow was near Hancock, or 7 miles east of Deposit moving east at 20 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... Deposit, Hancock, Fishs Eddy, Harvard, Downsville, Corbett, Sherman, East Branch, Peabrook, and Stilesville. This includes the following highway exits... Interstate 86/Route 17 between 82 and 93. SAFETY INFO... Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this band of heavy snow. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads may lead to accidents. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 models had below freezing temps for the entire metro last night. oops 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 11 minutes ago, forkyfork said: models had below freezing temps for the entire metro last night. oops Ewr up to 42 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 28, 2023 Author Share Posted November 28, 2023 Riding this out. Snowgoose may be right about not enough downslope taken into account e of App by the HRRR, but with the instability change and wind shift 22z-02z, I think there could be one good band of snow showers to wash eased across the metro area late this afternoon or evening. No guarantee. But already you see traces up and down the I95 corridor this morning vicinity DCA-BWI-PHL-NYC-PVD metros, yet to arrive in NYC. We'll see what happens. chances where 20F spread T/TD no snow. occasional flurries Sussex County NJ since 11A. whitening of the dirt/wooden features here. Calling it T here for now. May be my last til tonight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 28, 2023 Author Share Posted November 28, 2023 3/4 mile in big flake snow shower now in Wantage NJ. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 45 minutes ago, forkyfork said: models had below freezing temps for the entire metro last night. oops How about the other night with 40-60mph winds in parts of the area and it was not forecast and I didn't even see any wind reports by the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 1 hour ago, weathermedic said: Hearing of multiple rollover mva's in western Sullivan County with the snow squalls/showers. MVA's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, lee59 said: How about the other night with 40-60mph winds in parts of the area and it was not forecast and I didn't even see any wind reports by the NWS. It it's not reported, it never happened, therefore the forecast was accurate. Just joking. Normally, winds too often underperforming. This was one of the events where they did over perform. I think the models generally looks around 850, and forget things like friction to keep them from reaching all the way to the surface? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Dark Star said: It it's not reported, it never happened, therefore the forecast was accurate. Just joking. Normally, winds too often underperforming. This was one of the events where they did over perform. I think the models generally looks around 850, and forget things like friction to keep them from reaching all the way to the surface? The most interesting one to me was the report from Jones Beach. For probably a couple of hours they reported sustained winds of tropical storm force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 13 minutes ago, Dark Star said: MVA's? A home heating oil truck rolled for sure near Monticello, with a spill involved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannoliman42 Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 Mood flakes here in Astoria, Queens! First of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stu Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 Moderate flurries in Glen Ridge/Montclair. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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