November 2023

[brooklynwx99]

this was also the pattern a week before the 2021 blizzard. if we got this pattern this year we'd just hear about how useless the massive -NAO block would be since there's a Nina background state SE ridge and a horrible Pacific pattern. no way we could get a historic storm here

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Dark Star said:

We are talking about sustained warmth.  The 1980s had some pretty cold winters.  The arctic highs suppressed a lot of the storms south, so we didn't see a lot of snowstorms.  I fear we are either in a "stalled" pattern or a new norm.  And the warmth is magnified around these parts due to a weaker Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation?

The 90s were very warm as well (as were the 1930s I believe). We are definitely warming as we are still emerging from the mini ice age, also influenced by human activities. That being said, all one has to do is look at the last few years and the snow events in NC, Virginia and the Delmarva to take solice that we are a long way off from not seeing good winter stretches anymore. Also, if we are in more of a SE ridge dominant pattern, a repeat of the 1980s would yield less suppression and perhaps an incredible stretch.

I get that this is more of a temperature fear/discussion than pure snowfall. Maybe this is permanent, however I think we have to wait a number of years to determine as we have seen 10 years warm stretches before.

[brooklynwx99]

like i think people are literally just saying shit just to say it and it's getting frustrating. you cannot tell me that those patterns that have produced some of NYC's largest storms ever would probably get dragged over the coals today because of factors that aren't even detrimental. it has gotten ridiculous

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

SE ridges pop ahead of developing storm systems, and we have also had a blizzard with a trough in the SW US. I mean, this was the pattern a week before the largest snowstorm JFK ever got. I'm sure people would be trashing the Pacific pattern here too given the GoAK low and the ridge axis too far east over the Plains

Same page. I had a debate with bluewave on this a couple weeks ago. Not throwing shade at anyone here, he's obviously a very smart guy who does his research better than most people on here. I just think that there's some confirmation bias going on given familiar "nina-like" patterns common with the last several winters, even if the conditions today are pretty different. I don’t think anyone is immune to this, for sure not myself. 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Same page. I had a debate with bluewave on this a couple weeks ago. Not throwing shade at anyone here, he's obviously a very smart guy who does his research better than most people on here. I just think that there's some confirmation bias going on given familiar "nina-like" patterns common with the last several winters, even if the conditions today are pretty different. I don’t think anyone is immune to this, for sure not myself. 

PSU has posted before the main change he sees is that for whatever reason we see ridging pop in the SE US or off the SE coast in patterns we in the past would see trofing...he had a good post on it last spring in the MA forum where he showed a few setups where there was BC/W Coast ridging 20 years ago and the whole east coast had a trof but now a ridge was linking up with the NA block

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Same page. I had a debate with bluewave on this a couple weeks ago. Not throwing shade at anyone here, he's obviously a very smart guy who does his research better than most people on here. I just think that there's some confirmation bias going on given familiar "nina-like" patterns common with the last several winters, even if the conditions today are pretty different. I don’t think anyone is immune to this, for sure not myself. 

Thanks. Also the ensembles did not correct to a warm overall new background state, just merely corrected to the upcoming MJO phases 3 and 4. This ensemble correction would be expected in 1950.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

PSU has posted before the main change he sees is that for whatever reason we see ridging pop in the SE US or off the SE coast in patterns we in the past would see trofing...he had a good post on it last spring in the MA forum where he showed a few setups where there was BC/W Coast ridging 20 years ago and the whole east coast had a trof but now a ridge was linking up with the NA block

that literally just happened last winter. one winter isn't proof that -NAO don't work anymore. last winter just sucked, it happens. the confirmation bias has been through the roof

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

PSU has posted before the main change he sees is that for whatever reason we see ridging pop in the SE US or off the SE coast in patterns we in the past would see trofing...he had a good post on it last spring in the MA forum where he showed a few setups where there was BC/W Coast ridging 20 years ago and the whole east coast had a trof but now a ridge was linking up with the NA block

That is just the last few years though, I am sure this has happened before when we have had strong la Nina's. Is there proof/data that shows this has never happened before?

[Allsnow]

@bluewave has been very accurate with his mid range predictions the past few years. When he starts to talk cold and snow then it just might be coming. 

[North and West]

Maybe I am mistaken, however I feel as though a lot of board members are traumatized from 4 of the last 5 winters, and perhaps even think that somehow the global weather pattern changed for good after 2018.
If anyone remembers the 80s and 90s, they will know that those patterns were just as bad, and yes we will eventually flip to a better pattern down the road. Who knows how many years but it will happen. 

Bingo. That and the reality of AGW amplifying a lousy pattern.

It’s like a cake that already has too much salt in it and you proceed to sprinkle more salt on top of it instead of powdered sugar.


.

[wdrag]

Meanwhile,  the 12z/26 HRRR for measurable by 12z Tue in fairly steep lapse rates where they coincide with Lee of the Lakes Boundary Layer RH greater than 50% should yield a few flurries, and in the hills---scattered dustings on roads.  T/TD spread more than 20F will yield virga... so that's what I'll be looking for Tuesday as the big negative for NYC CP ASOS seeing a couple minutes of flurries.  

[North and West]

like i think people are literally just saying shit just to say it and it's getting frustrating. you cannot tell me that those patterns that have produced some of NYC's largest storms ever would probably get dragged over the coals today because of factors that aren't even detrimental. it has gotten ridiculous

That, and social media being our id, so we say things sans filters when frustrated.


.

[wdrag]

11 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Meanwhile,  the 12z/26 HRRR for measurable by 12z Tue in fairly steep lapse rates where they coincide with Lee of the Lakes Boundary Layer RH greater than 50% should yield a few flurries, and in the hills---scattered dustings on roads.  T/TD spread more than 20F will yield virga... so that's what I'll be looking for Tuesday as the big negative for NYC CP ASOS seeing a couple minutes of flurries.  

and now with the HRRR image, done while trimming outside.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this was also the pattern a week before the 2021 blizzard. if we got this pattern this year we'd just hear about how useless the massive -NAO block would be since there's a Nina background state SE ridge and a horrible Pacific pattern. no way we could get a historic storm here

The early February 21 blizzard worked since the upper low lingered in place near the East Coast after the December into January 20-21 +PNA. Plus we got a great Rockies ridge amplification at the time of the storm which was an effective +PNA even if the raw indices had a -PNA. That’s why I am a big fan of using 500 mb anomalies over the raw indices at times. So even though we were technically -PNA at storm time, it was nothing like the raging -PNA we had last winter with the trough digging into the Baja.

 

 

[psv88]

21 this morning, quick warm up now

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

Up to 50 before fully cloudy.  Showers ouhsing into South Jersy

[wdrag]

18z HRRR...take a look for 12z-18z Tue.

Might be too far south... changes to this will occur. 

 

For snow,  probably good to think baby steps and see if we can get some flurries for NYC metro Tuesday... might be virga but for now... there is a chance.

[psv88]

Tuesday is going to feel brutally cold. 30s and howling winds mid day. 

[MJO812]

37 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Tuesday is going to feel brutally cold. 30s and howling winds mid day. 

With possible snow flurries

[wdrag]

Just our luck...if it does flurry...asos at CP might call it 2 min of unknown (seldom seen?) pcpn.  

[Cfa]

Alternating between light and moderate snow in Wisconsin. Strange sight after last winter, it caught me off guard even though I knew it was going to snow.

[Stormlover74]

Well at least its only rain

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Alternating between light and moderate snow in Wisconsin. Strange sight after last winter, it caught me off guard even though I knew it was going to snow.

How much you expecting?

[donsutherland1]

A developing storm will bring rain to the region tonight into early tomorrow. Most areas should see 0.50"-1.00" of rain. Areas on eastern Long Island into eastern New England could see higher amounts.

In the wake of the storm, Monday will turn partly cloudy, breezy, and mild. However, colder air will overspread the region and temperatures could fall during the afternoon hours. Tuesday and Wednesday will be partly sunny but unseasonably cold. Flurries are possible, especially on Tuesday. A moderating trend should commence during the middle of the week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around November 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.70°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter as the current East-based event completes its evolution into a basinwide El Niño.

Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar ENSO/PDO conditions: December 1972.

The SOI was +10.18 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.121 today.

On November 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.141 (RMM). The November 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.140 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (1.9° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019.

 

[Stormlover74]

.35", heaviest setting up for western areas

[SACRUS]

 

0.24 in the bucket thru 7pm and temp bumped up to 53 on south wind.

[weathermedic]

Got this a little while ago from Notify NYC:

Notification issued 11-26-2023 at 18:59.

Due to extremely high winds, the NYC Ferry Rockaway Route is suspended for the remainder of the evening. Consider alternate routes and allow for additional travel time.

For more information, please visit https://www.ferry.nyc/service-alerts/.

Wind gusting to 29 mph at JFK as of a few minutes ago. 32 mph at Breezy Point.

[lee59]

12 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Got this a little while ago from Notify NYC:

Notification issued 11-26-2023 at 18:59.

Due to extremely high winds, the NYC Ferry Rockaway Route is suspended for the remainder of the evening. Consider alternate routes and allow for additional travel time.

For more information, please visit https://www.ferry.nyc/service-alerts/.

Wind gusting to 29 mph at JFK as of a few minutes ago. 32 mph at Breezy Point.

I was just going to post the wind has really picked up here, gusting to 27mph.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

.35", heaviest setting up for western areas

Glad this isn’t snow