November 2023

[Allsnow]

13 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem also quite wet

Wagons west…

[bluewave]

Same old story of recent years with a stronger SE ridge than forecast resulting in a further west storm track.

New run

 

Old run

 

 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Same old story of recent years with a stronger SE ridge than forecast resulting in a further west storm track.

New run

 

Old run

 

 

Yup. 

[the_other_guy]

25F heavy frost this morning. Always before a warm-up. At least the dog shit was easy to pull off my neighbors frozen lawn.

[LoboLeader1]

18F here this AM in the Berkshires. 28F back home in HPN.

[STORMANLI]

21°

[donsutherland1]

The latest numbers for the week ahead:

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Same old story of recent years with a stronger SE ridge than forecast resulting in a further west storm track.

New run

 

Old run

 

 

Time to fix the program?

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Same old story of recent years with a stronger SE ridge than forecast resulting in a further west storm track.

New run

 

Old run

 

 

Wasn't the old map just showing a flat SE Ridge due to spread? It seemed odd to not have a SE ridge with a deep RNA like the old map was showing. I think the new map shows less spread and more of what u would expect with an RNA.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Same old story of recent years with a stronger SE ridge than forecast resulting in a further west storm track.

New run

 

Old run

 

 

that isn't a SE ridge. that was just ensemble disagreement on how strong the system would get. stronger solutions verified, and there are height rises ahead of the system over the NE. that doesn't have much to do with a lingering SE ridge tendency or anything

[SACRUS]

 

26 overnight now to 35.  Mainly cloudy skies. Warmer w/ showers and rain later before clearing Monday.  Colder Tue - Thu before moderating and warming for next weekend and into the start of the following work week.

 

 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that isn't a SE ridge. that was just ensemble disagreement on how strong the system would get. stronger solutions verified, and there are height rises ahead of the system over the NE. that doesn't have much to do with a lingering SE ridge tendency or anything

You were talking about a wintery precip threat a while back for late November. I pointed out to you that we seldom see this with a piece of the trough hanging back to the SW . Any amplified short waves will pump the SE ridge which is what is happening with this storm system. So we only need a SE ridge for 1 day to result in a warmer storm track. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 68 (2011)
NYC: 67 (1946)
LGA:67 (2020)


Lows:

EWR: 15 (1938)
NYC: 16 (1938)
LGA:  24 (19400)

 

Historical:

 

1888 - A late season hurricane brushed the East Coast with heavy rain and gale force winds. The hurricane passed inside Nantucket and over Cape Cod, then crossed Nova Scotia. (David Ludlum)

1896 - Snow and high winds hit the Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley, with a Thanksgiving Day blizzard across North Dakota. The storm was followed by a severe cold wave in the Upper Midwest. The temperature at Pokegama Dam MI plunged to 45 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A Thanksgiving Day storm in the northeastern U.S. produced heavy snow in northern New England and upstate New York. Snowfall totals in Maine ranged up to twenty inches at Flagstaff Lake. Totals in New Hampshire ranged up to 18 inches at Errol. Gales lashed the coast of Maine and New Hampshire. A second storm, over the Southern and Central Rockies, produced nine inches of snow at Kanosh UT, and 13 inches at Divide CO, with five inches reported at Denver CO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather over the Central Gulf Coast States during the late morning and afternoon hours. Five tornadoes were reported in Mississippi, with the tornadoes causing a million dollars damage at Ruleville, and in Warren County. In Utah, the town of Alta was blanketed with 15 inches of snow overnight, and during the day was buried under another 16.5 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1989 - A massive storm over the western U.S. produced heavy snow in Utah, Colorado, Wyoming and Montana. The storm produced more than two feet of snow in the higher elevations of northern and central Utah, bringing more than sixty inches of snow to the Alta Ski Resort in the Wasatch Mountains. Winds in Utah gusted to 60 mph at Bullfrog. The storm brought much needed snow to the ski resorts of Colorado, with 19 inches reported at Beaver Creek. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

2001: Heavy snow of 6 to 12 inches, along with strong north winds of 20 to 40 mph, caused near-blizzard conditions and challenging travel conditions across most of central and northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota. Snowfall amounts were 6 to 12 inches in South Dakota and 10 to 14 inches in west central Minnesota. Most schools were closed or started late on both the 26th and 27th and some businesses were also closed. Many flights were also delayed or canceled. Some snowfall amounts included 6 inches at Eagle Butte, Fort Thompson and Webster; 7 inches at Eureka, Onida, Doland, and Watertown; 8 inches at Highmore, Miller, Onaka, Castlewood, and Selby; 9 inches at Sisseton and Peever; 10 inches at Ortonville, Faulkton, Blunt, Murdo, Kennebec, and Stephan; 11 inches at Victor and Gettysburg; 12 inches at Milbank, White Rock, and Clear Lake; 13 inches at Wheaton; and 14 inches at Browns Valley.

2007:Lightning and heavy rain delay the start of the Monday Night Football game at Pittsburgh's Heinz Field between the Miami Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 minutes. The muddy field conditions contribute to one of the lowest scoring NFL games won by the Steelers, 3-0. The teams combined 375 yards, and the winning field goal occurred with 17 seconds left in the game.

[SnoSki14]

First 10 days of December looking quite mild. 50s for highs and likely above freezing lows. 

Greenland block delivering 

[SACRUS]

16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

First 10 days of December looking quite mild. 50s for highs and likely above freezing lows. 

Greenland block delivering 

 

Looks like Europe will get the brunt of the cold the next week or so.  Wonder if we have next in and out cold shot in the dec 6 -8 period.

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-11-day-snowy-31530115

 

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

First 10 days of December looking quite mild. 50s for highs and likely above freezing lows. 

Greenland block delivering 

It will eventually 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Same old story of recent years with a stronger SE ridge than forecast resulting in a further west storm track.

New run

 

Old run

 

 

Seems like you are on board with a warm winter

[EastonSN+]

29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

First 10 days of December looking quite mild. 50s for highs and likely above freezing lows. 

Greenland block delivering 

The MJO is progressing through 3 and 4, so this is expected.

[EastonSN+]

So the debate seems to be, is the SE ridge a result of the RNA and the storm pumping up the SE ridge, or is the SE ridge causing the storm to cut.

My thought is, if we are heading through phase 3, wouldn't a RNA just cause the SE ridge to pump up?

 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Seems like you are on board with a warm winter

Maybe I am mistaken, however I feel as though a lot of board members are traumatized from 4 of the last 5 winters, and perhaps even think that somehow the global weather pattern changed for good after 2018.

If anyone remembers the 80s and 90s, they will know that those patterns were just as bad, and yes we will eventually flip to a better pattern down the road. Who knows how many years but it will happen. 

[Allsnow]

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You were talking about a wintery precip threat a while back for late November. I pointed out to you that we seldom see this with a piece of the trough hanging back to the SW . Any amplified short waves will pump the SE ridge which is what is happening with this storm system. So we only need a SE ridge for 1 day to result in a warmer storm track. 

Yup. Many said the cold shot on thanksgiving would “set the stage” and once again many are fooled by ens maps in the 11-15 day 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Yup. Many said the cold shot on thanksgiving would “set the stage” and once again many are fooled by ens maps in the 11-15 day 

We went through phases 8,1 and 2 too early in the season and now we are going through the warm phases. This is expected and not a surprise. The ens correct to the MJO phase. Nobody is FOOLED. 

[Rjay]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Seems like you are on board with a warm winter

He didn't say that 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Many said the cold shot on thanksgiving would “set the stage” and once again many are fooled by ens maps in the 11-15 day 

I believe the last time a favorable EPS 11-15 forecast this time of year verified in our favor was in 2020.

 

 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I believe the last time a favorable EPS 11-15 forecast this time of year verified in our favor was in 2020.

 

 

2020-2021 was a great winter…

 

last time we had a decent pacific with some blocking 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You were talking about a wintery precip threat a while back for late November. I pointed out to you that we seldom see this with a piece of the trough hanging back to the SW . Any amplified short waves will pump the SE ridge which is what is happening with this storm system. So we only need a SE ridge for 1 day to result in a warmer storm track. 

my point was that this isn't a SE ridge. they're height rises out ahead of a developing storm system. two different things

[Dark Star]

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Maybe I am mistaken, however I feel as though a lot of board members are traumatized from 4 of the last 5 winters, and perhaps even think that somehow the global weather pattern changed for good after 2018.

If anyone remembers the 80s and 90s, they will know that those patterns were just as bad, and yes we will eventually flip to a better pattern down the road. Who knows how many years but it will happen. 

We are talking about sustained warmth.  The 1980s had some pretty cold winters.  The arctic highs suppressed a lot of the storms south, so we didn't see a lot of snowstorms.  I fear we are either in a "stalled" pattern or a new norm.  And the warmth is magnified around these parts due to a weaker Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation?

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I believe the last time a favorable EPS 11-15 forecast this time of year verified in our favor was in 2020.

 

 

The ens finally corrected to the MJO phases 3 and 4.

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You were talking about a wintery precip threat a while back for late November. I pointed out to you that we seldom see this with a piece of the trough hanging back to the SW . Any amplified short waves will pump the SE ridge which is what is happening with this storm system. So we only need a SE ridge for 1 day to result in a warmer storm track. 

Great pattern recognition here

[brooklynwx99]

SE ridges pop ahead of developing storm systems, and we have also had a blizzard with a trough in the SW US. I mean, this was the pattern a week before the largest snowstorm JFK ever got. I'm sure people would be trashing the Pacific pattern here too given the GoAK low and the ridge axis too far east over the Plains