November 2023

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. We may have to be patient for our first snowfall. Very slow start to the season so far across the US. 
 

 

Outside one cold shot earlier this month the conus has not had much artic air. 

[Allsnow]

Looks cold next week. Models just rushed it a few days 

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Heard the MJO should be rounding into 7-8-1 toward the back end of Dec? 

[EastonSN+]

44 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Heard the MJO should be rounding into 7-8-1 toward the back end of Dec? 

It looks to be setting up that El nino MJO forcing loop at the current time.

[EastonSN+]

16 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The western trough isn’t nearly as deep as last December 10-20th. Also the NAO block is further north. 
 

Doesn’t guarantee anything but both of those aspects were part of the reason last December failed to give us a prolific event. 
 

You always want to see blocking showing up early since it often repeats itself later in winter. I’ll want to see this on multiple model runs though before believing it. 

GREAT post by ORH wxman on why last December failed. Maybe we cash in this time.

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GREAT post by ORH wxman on why last December failed. Maybe we cash in this time.

Doesn't he live in Maine? 

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Doesn't he live in Maine? 

I think Massachusetts, but that does not matter. What he is explaining would affect the entire East Coast.

[EastonSN+]

Great sign for MJO 

[qg_omega]

NYC likely misses another freeze this weekend, but will hit next week

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think Massachusetts, but that does not matter. What he is explaining would affect the entire East Coast.

Maybe but snow for new England doesn’t mean we'll see it

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

NYC likely misses another freeze this weekend, but will hit next week

Why do you say that? Forecast tomorrow night is 30

 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Why do you say that? Forecast tomorrow night is 30

 

Yup. NWS 30 degrees with Nw wind 5-10 miles 

[psv88]

I’d take even just some snow showers at this point. We used to get occasional snow showers by late November, flurries etc. Seems like it’s all or Nothing in more recent times 

[dmillz25]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. NWS 30 degrees with Nw wind 5-10 miles 

Upper 20s here 

 

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Why do you say that? Forecast tomorrow night is 30

 

He’s….. something else

[Allsnow]

 

[wdrag]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I’d take even just some snow showers at this point. We used to get occasional snow showers by late November, flurries etc. Seems like it’s all or Nothing in more recent times 

 

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I’d take even just some snow showers at this point. We used to get occasional snow showers by late November, flurries etc. Seems like it’s all or Nothing in more recent times 

Think the EC has scattered snow showers around early next week...no meas. That's why I mentioned possible flurry. Let's see what happens with the instability and Lee of Lakes contrib to low level RH. 

[EastonSN+]

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Maybe but snow for new England doesn’t mean we'll see it

Of course, however he was not just referring to northern new England. Part of New England is just a few miles from NYC. That difference could have smoked DC northward.

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great sign for MJO 

Was always going to be hard to sustain something through 3-4-5 in a Nino this strong much as sustaining in a good 8-1-2 in a Nina is hard

[wdrag]

Model dreaming 00z/22 cycle and 12z/23 for about 12/5??? just single members and far too distant but maybe something of interest for part of NJ/NYS/CT?  That's about all the big wintry storm stuff I can muster for around here... as of 1145AM/23. Not a topic for sure,  but my hope is eternal. 

GGEM maybe a day or 2 sooner?

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

GREAT post by ORH wxman on why last December failed. Maybe we cash in this time.

You can usually do okay here with a -PNA with a -NAO even in December as far as cold/chances for snow but if the PNA is like -1 or weaker...last December I think it was close to -2 for a time, that is too much to overcome in December 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

I’d take even just some snow showers at this point. We used to get occasional snow showers by late November, flurries etc. Seems like it’s all or Nothing in more recent times 

Got married 10 years ago today, had a great snow squall that night that laid down some snow

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

NYC likely misses another freeze this weekend, but will hit next week

Because?

[WX-PA]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

And that was it for the winter. December was cold with no snow, the rest of the winter was a torch.

[Stormlover74]

29 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

And that was it for the winter. December was cold with no snow, the rest of the winter was a torch.

We did manage to nickel and dime our way up to 15" or so with minor snows in January February and March. We also had snow showers nearly every day in late December during the arctic outbreak.  Of course we also had the disastrous bust on 12/15 where a predicted 4 to 8" became a driving rainstorm. 

[George001]

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Maybe but snow for new England doesn’t mean we'll see it

This is not a coastal snow pattern. It’s not as deep as last December, but I don’t like seeing that trough out west. The pacific is honestly bad enough that even parts of New England such as Boston would likely be skunked verbatim. My gut feeling is the the I-95 corridor (mainly from Boston to DC) and SE of that has to wait until January.  I could be wrong, I’m not a meteorologist, but the similarities to last December are making me highly skeptical of this pattern.

[brooklynwx99]

15 minutes ago, George001 said:

This is not a coastal snow pattern. It’s not as deep as last December, but I don’t like seeing that trough out west. The pacific is honestly bad enough that even parts of New England such as Boston would likely be skunked verbatim. My gut feeling is the the I-95 corridor (mainly from Boston to DC) and SE of that has to wait until January.  I could be wrong, I’m not a meteorologist, but the similarities to last December are making me highly skeptical of this pattern.

your concerns are overblown… there is a ridge out west here. nothing like last year with a trough digging into Baja CA. not sure what you’re referring to

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

your concerns are overblown… there is a ridge out west here. nothing like last year with a trough digging into Baja CA. not sure what you’re referring to

Weeklies look great for December . Nice change from warmth. 

[donsutherland1]

The coldest air mass so far this season will overspread the region tomorrow. Saturday morning will likely see New York City experience its first freeze of the season. The remainder of November will likely be generally cooler than normal with a reinforcing shot of cold air near the end of the month. However, no Arctic blasts appear likely. Conditions should also be mainly dry through the remainder of the month with the only rainfall likely Sunday night or Monday morning.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around November 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.70°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter as the current East-based event completes its evolution into a basinwide El Niño.

Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965.

Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar conditions: December 1972.

The SOI was -16.48 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.690 today.

On November 21 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.570 (RMM). The November 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.578 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.9° (2.0° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019.

 

[wishcast_hater]

Got married 10 years ago today, had a great snow squall that night that laid down some snow

Hey let’s keep this forum clean, you don’t have to tell us the details of your wedding night.


.

[the_other_guy]

anybody remember a snow squall white out situation on Thanksgiving eve?would’ve been mid early/mid 90s mid afternoon