MJO812 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Huge change for early December on the models. Negative NAO. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Made it to 54 today 1.71 in the bucket, wettest day since 9/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Records: Highs: EWR: 72 (931) NYC: 72 (1931) LGA: 69 (1940) Lows: EWR: 17 (2018) NYC: 13 (1880) LGA: 19 (2018) 5 year ago chilled Historical: 1641 - An observer at Boston, MA, recorded a great tempest of wind and rain from the southeast all night, as fierce as a hurricane, and thereupon followed the highest tide which we have seen since our arrival here . (David Ludlum) 1957 - Extremely destructive Santa Ana winds blew from Oxnard to San Diego and inland parts of southern California. The high winds produced a 28,000 acre brush fire on a 40-mile front west of Crystal Lake. People were ordered off streets in some areas due to flying debris. (21st-22nd) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Eight cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Elkins, WV, reported a low of 5 degrees above zero. Gale force winds continued along the Northern Atlantic Coast. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Wet and windy weather prevailed across the western U.S., with heavy snow in some of the higher elevations. Winds gusted to 62 mph at Vedauwoo WY, and reached 75 mph at Tillamook OR. Shelter Cove CA was drenched with 4.37 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Strong northerly winds produced squalls along the shore of Lake Michigan, with heavy snow in extreme southeastern Wisconsin. Milwaukee WI received nine inches of snow, and in Racine County there were more than one hundred automobile accidents. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 7 hours ago, North and West said: Great analysis. Wonder why it suddenly turned in 1972. (Agnes notwithstanding) It remains to be seen how things will ultimately evolve. With the AAM forecast to go positive during or after the first week of December, a more typical El Niño pattern could try to develop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Following last night’s heavy rainfall, deer were out and about. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 The heavy rain ended early this morning. Two-day rainfall totals included: Bridgeport: 2.61" Islip: 1.62" New York City: 2.52" Newark: 2.24" Philadelphia: 1.81" Daily rainfall records were set today at: Bridgeport: 2.37" (old record: 1.52", 1991) Islip: 1.25" (old record: 0.99", 1985) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1.78" (old record: 1.48", 1952) Thanksgiving Day will be blustery and cooler, but not harsh. Highs should reach the upper 40s and lower 50s. An even colder air mass should arrive late in the week. Friday night or Saturday morning will likely see New York City experience its first freeze of the season. The remainder of November will likely be generally cooler than normal. However, no Arctic blasts appear likely. Conditions should also be mainly dry. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around November 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.70°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter as the current East-based event completes its evolution into a basinwide El Niño. Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965. Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar conditions: December 1972. The SOI was -18.07 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.030 today. On November 20 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.578 (RMM). The November 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.564 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (2.0° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Following last night’s heavy rainfall, deer were out and about. Beautiful pictures 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 4 hours ago, Allsnow said: Don’t want to go down this rabbit hole but that temp sticks out from ewr today 58 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Huge change for early December on the models. Negative NAO. If we don’t have a good pacific it’s worthless 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 6 hours ago, Roger Smith said: The period 1962 to 1965 was exceptionally dry (1962 was 21st driest and you can see top five status of 1963-65 above). They estimated from a tree ring study that the 1960s drought was the worst in 400 years. https://seaandskyny.com/2012/04/29/trees-tell-the-story-of-500-years-of-nyc-drought-history/ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 31 minutes ago, Allsnow said: If we don’t have a good pacific it’s worthless Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: Historical: 1641 - An observer at Boston, MA, recorded a great tempest of wind and rain from the southeast all night, as fierce as a hurricane, and thereupon followed the highest tide which we have seen since our arrival here . (David Ludlum) Any indication of whether date (Nov 22) was O.S. or converted to N.S.? I wanted to check against lunar dates but would need to know that detail (would be Dec 2, 1641 N.S. or if converted would have been observed on Nov 12, 1641 O.S.). Gregorian calendar was not used in British colonies or Britain until 1752. The "Daniel Defoe" 1703 event in south coast England was experienced as being on Nov 26-27 but would have been Dec 7-8 in Gregorian calendar, and it was at a new moon. (10 days difference to 1700, 11 days after 1700 was a leap year in Julian but not in Gregorian calendar). Britain finally joined the continent which had converted around 1582, in 1752, dropping 3rd to 13th of September from calendars. This was the one occasion on which the GFS 16-day verified /jk ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: If we don’t have a good pacific it’s worthless Yes this! I’ll take a -NAO, esp in December (@bluewave would know better than me, but I think that bodes well for the ensuing months), but like we saw last Dec, it won’t mean much unless we get at least a little bit of PAC love. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 I ended up working in short sleeves the back half of the afternoon, so it wasn't that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Following last night’s heavy rainfall, deer were out and about. Long Island needs bow hunting for them or population control. One was standing in the right lane just before Heritage nursery on Northern Blvd. going eastbound. This was at 6:30pm. Thankfully I was in the left lane otherwise would have nailed it. So far have already seen 4 of them hit the last 2 months or so on Northern Blvd. NYS just puts up signs showing deer the next 1 mile. All good until someone dies from an accident with them. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Following last night’s heavy rainfall, deer were out and about. oh deer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Happy Thanksgiving to all. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Happy Thanksgiving Everyone 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 The last 8 days of November are averaging 41degs.(36/45) or -3. Month to date is 48.7[-0.5]. November should end near 46.6[-1.5]. Reached 56 yesterday at 5am. Today: Steady T near 50, wind w.-breezy, m. sunny, 43 tomorrow AM. 46*(73%RH) here at 6am. 45* at 9am. Reached 53* at 3pm. 50* at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 12 hours ago, Allsnow said: If we don’t have a good pacific it’s worthless Last December also had a great Greenland block. Maybe just bad luck. But to me the Pac rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 23, 2023 Author Share Posted November 23, 2023 Will get a Dec thread started late Friday, after CPC D8-14, and week 3-4 are posted around 330 PM, in addition to their previous mid month Dec Outlook. Ensembles, as I see it, slowly depress (climo?) the jet in early Dec with blocking in Canada, especially blocking over northern Canada. Nino pattern continues with a wetter than normal southeast USA, probably encompassing our NYC subforum with at least normal precip first week of Dec. So far, snow threats through 300 hours on the multi ensembles (CMCE, EPS, GEFS) seems to be I84 northward. Would love to see NYC first freeze and northwest wind instability passing flurry accomplished by Nov 30. Seems to be a chance of both especially with the cold trough developing in the northeast USA early next week. Happy Thanksgiving! 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Last December I averaged 36 degrees which beat January and Feb by over 4. Pretty insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 9 hours ago, uofmiami said: Long Island needs bow hunting for them or population control. One was standing in the right lane just before Heritage nursery on Northern Blvd. going eastbound. This was at 6:30pm. Thankfully I was in the left lane otherwise would have nailed it. So far have already seen 4 of them hit the last 2 months or so on Northern Blvd. NYS just puts up signs showing deer the next 1 mile. All good until someone dies from an accident with them. I am glad you missed it. A few years ago, the population here was out of control. A period of bow hunting reduced the population to manageable levels. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. We may have to be patient for our first snowfall. Very slow start to the season so far across the US. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. We may have to be patient for our first snowfall. Very slow start to the season so far across the US. Not surprising. Most of the country has been mild and very dry to boot. Only the northeast has had a cooler anomaly this month but we've just had our rainiest event in weeks. Was very dry before that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I am glad you missed it. A few years ago, the population here was out of control. A period of bow hunting reduced the population to manageable levels. https://www.dec.ny.gov/animals/123773.html Above did a number on the herds around here for a couple years but numbers are bouncing back IMBY. Inadvertently got between this guy (not a high quality photo)and six or so does in the yard a couple weeks ago. He wasn’t happy so I decided it was best to head inside as I was clearly disturbing his date night plans… 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Have a fantastic holiday everyone! We do the old double turkey trouble as we head up to Milltown this morning to spend time with the in-laws, then back down to TR for my family. Safe travels guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Not surprising. Most of the country has been mild and very dry to boot. Only the northeast has had a cooler anomaly this month but we've just had our rainiest event in weeks. Was very dry before that. Yeah, very warm and dry November for the CONUS outside the Northeast. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, very warm and dry November for the CONUS outside the Northeast. Does it bother anyone else that they can't bother to put a color on geographic Long Island? I mean, only about 8 million people live here. If they did the same to Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska combined, I bet a lot of folks would rightly complain that the map isn't anywhere near complete, yet those states total about two thirds of the population of Long Island. Also, get off my lawn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 45 with a brisk wind makes for perfect thanksgiving weather 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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