November 2023

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.12" of rain so far today.

Storm total so far 1.92"

[gravitylover]

1.5

[Allsnow]

1.50 

 

leaves are 99% down now 

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, TriPol said:

Any chance of 55 inches this year? A wet December?

The first half of December looks relatively dry. It could be tough to get to 55”.

[Allsnow]

Looks like NYC drops to the upper 20’s Saturday morning 

[Brian5671]

2.30 inches of rain at BDR with wind gusts near 40 last nite

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  42degs.(38/47) or -3.

Reached 50 here yesterday at midnight.

Today: 53-56, wind w.-breezy, Rain ending early, m. cloudy, 45 tomorrow AM.

54*(98%RH) here at 6am{was 56 at 5am} drizzle-fog.    51* at 8am.      55* at 2pm.

[weathermedic]

1.11 total at my station

 

[Snowlover11]

nice drink 1.63”

[lee59]

1.71 storm total here. Peak wind gust 37mph

[FPizz]

2.09"

[psv88]

1.74”, hit 58 earlier. Now 53

[North and West]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A cold front will move across the region tomorrow after a storm brings a general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with some locally higher amounts overnight. Ahead of the frontal passage, temperatures will likely soar into the middle and upper 50s. A few places will likely exceed 60°.

New York City's annual precipitation, which stood at 49.18" as of 8:39 pm, will surge past 50.00". Years with 50.00" or precipitation have increased dramatically since the City's climate became abruptly wetter in 1972.

The frequency of 50.00" or above years is as follows:

1869-1971: Once every 7.9 years
1972-2023*: Once every 2.3 years
Since 2000*: Once every 1.8 years

*Includes 2023 as a 50.00" year. 2023 currently has 49.70". No year had less than 0.30" from November 19-December 31. The record least precipitation during that timeframe was 0.67" in 1955.

Following the storm and frontal passage, somewhat colder air will arrive. Thanksgiving Day will be blustery and cooler, but not harsh. Highs should reach the upper 40s and lower 50s. An even colder air mass should arrive late in the week. Friday night or Saturday morning will likely see New York City experience its first freeze of the season. The remainder of November will likely be generally cooler than normal. However, no Arctic blasts appear likely.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around November 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.70°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter as the current East-based event completes its evolution into a basinwide El Niño.

Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965.

Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar conditions: December 1972.

The SOI was -18.07 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.535 today.

On November 19 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.564 (RMM). The November 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.507 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.2° (1.8° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019.

 

Great analysis. Wonder why it suddenly turned in 1972. (Agnes notwithstanding)

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, North and West said:

Great analysis. Wonder why it suddenly turned in 1972. (Agnes notwithstanding)

Maybe just that a warmer atmosphere holds more water. There was a problem with the rain gauge in 1983. So the actual reading may have been closer to 70”. But the long term trend remains either way. 

 

[rclab]

Good morning everyone. As per NWS/NOAA 2.49” recorded at CPK between 14:51 Tuesday and 06:51 Wednesday. Stay well and Thankful, as always ….

 

[North and West]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Maybe just that a warmer atmosphere holds more water. There was a problem with the rain gauge in 1983. So the actual reading may have been closer to 70”. But the long term trend remains either way. 

 

Thank you, seems logical. 

[steve392]

Incredible rains overnight. Lots of flooding by me as evident by all the debris in places

[Cfa]

Just under 2.50” here.

[STORMANLI]

3.07"

[Roger Smith]

I would agree a warmer climate is partly responsible for the increase in rainfall since about 1971 (I would say July 1971 is where the trend really reversed), but note a few periods in the period 1901 to 1940 had a few wet years consecutively, such as 1902-03, 1919-20 and 1926-27, 1936-38. The dry climate period was most evident from about 1941 to 1970, and also first part of the 1880s decade was notably dry except for 1882. 

The ten driest years for NYC since 1869 are (in order) 1965, 1964, 1910, 1935, 1963, 1970, 1885t1895, 1954, 1892. The next ten are 2001, 1883, 1931, 1949, 1956, 1881, 1957, 1880, 1943, 1950. After 2001, the next driest years in recent decades was 25th driest 1981 and 28th driest 2012.

The ten wettest years were 1983, 2011, 1972, 2018, 1989, 2007, 1975, 1990, 2006, 2021 -- all since 1972. The next ten show a bit of scatter -- 1903, 2003, 1889, 1913, 1973, 1984, 1971, 1996, 1927, 2005. That brings the post 1971 total to 16 of 20, and by 30th place it is 21 of 30. 

So there may be other factors to consider as heavier rainfall and warmth were not well correlated in previous examples (1931, a very warm year, was quite dry, and so were 1949 and 1953; conversely, 1902-03 and 1926-27 were quite cool especially summers). 

I would imagine Pacific influences can be found in any in-depth study but also, I recall that around 1971-72 there was an unusually deep eastern arctic vortex near Baffin Island, perhaps the first signs of large-scale changes underway in Canada's arctic climate which began to warm rapidly by the 1970s. As shown by 1883 and 1885 being dry years, a lot of arctic air flowing south inhibits rainfall in the northeastern U.S. (probably southeast and central U.S. rainfalls are higher). As shown by 1930s, severe heat and drought in central regions often fails to transfer to east coast although 1930, 1931, 1935 and 1939 were all relatively dry. 

The period 1962 to 1965 was exceptionally dry (1962 was 21st driest and you can see top five status of 1963-65 above). These years all set records for sunshine hours at Toronto and were generally quite dry there also (1965 not as notably, storm track was quite active in 1965 in lower Great Lakes region). Oct 1963 and Feb 1964 were both records by wide margins. Toronto's climate record is different in that there has been an ongoing rainfall decrease from very wet peaks in mid 19th century, only recently has this trend reversed a bit. The ten wettest years at Toronto are 1843, 1878, 1870, 1842, 2013, 1977, 1996, 1855, 1841, 1986 but as four of those are pre-NYC (1869-) the overlapping ten are 1878, 1870, 2013, 1977, 1996, 1986, 1945, 2008, 1869, 1893. (another three pre-1869 years intervene before 1893 as well, 1852, 1857 11th-12th and 1859 is 15th). Toronto's ten driest years are 1933, 1963, 1874, 1949, 1934, 1882, 2016, 1872, 1988, 1938. The dust bowl influence was stronger and 1965 ranks 66th wettest of 183 years, 1964 was 71st driest. The signals are not always opposite but correlations are low and probably a bit on the negative side even for these relatively close locations, I would guess there is a strong negative correlation in annual precip between say NYC and GRB or STL. 

[Allsnow]

Warm sector fail today 

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Warm sector fail today 

55 and sunny is no good?

[Allsnow]

13 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

55 and sunny is no good?

It’s been cloudy all day. Temps were forecasted to approach 60 

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

55 and sunny is no good?

Cloudy here but not far off from forecast high of upper 50s

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cloudy here but not far off from forecast high of upper 50s

Really? 

high of 52 here today 

 

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Really? 

high of 52 here today 

 

Ewr is 57

[Allsnow]

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ewr is 57

Max was 58.

while nyc max was 54 

Teterboro was 53 

Ewr 4-5 degrees warmer then everyone else today 

 

 

[bluewave]

Looks like Jersey City made it to 58° earlier.

https://www.njweather.org/data/5min/3411

Jersey City

NJ

2023-11-22 12:50

Mesonet

58

 

[Allsnow]

Don’t want to go down this rabbit hole but that temp sticks out from ewr today 

[Cfa]

My high was also 58, down to 49 now.