snywx Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 30 w lgt snow/sleet coating on non paved surfaces 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 I’m 90% sure I saw flurries earlier near West Babylon. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said: How are Atlantic SST’s lately? Haven’t seen that discussed much. Still looking very high, Labrador current is weak and not pushing very hard past Newfoundland, Gulf stream is keeping it toasty just south of benchmark to just east of Delmarva. If enough cold air gets sucked down by troughs, a very potent situation for any developing nor'easters. Just as long as it doesn't turn them to cold rainstorms. Pattern ahead looks a bit like 1917 or 1933, two years that saw extreme cold later in Dec and a continuation into Jan-Feb 1918, while in 1934 a pause in Jan and return to severe cold in Feb. https://www.weather.gc.ca/data/analysis/351_100.gif Note also 10 C readings in Great Lakes suggesting potent snow squall banding can occur in future cold surges. Ice is also slow to develop on hudson bay. Sea temps of -1 C are still open (salt) water. Oceans freeze at about -2 C. Any -2 or lower readings are basically meaningless on maps as ice is present so it becomes a question of how thick that ice is. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 1 hour ago, FPizz said: A few sleet pellets came down for a few minutes earlier. Nice to see. Exactly the same thing here. Same thing will happen in winter but I will waste a week of life tracking a big snow that ends up cutting in disappointment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 I think I saw three flakes while on Route 10 midday, prior to the cold November rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: First flakes here too, 15 days later than the average but not even close to the latest I've ever recorded the first snowflakes. 34/26 with light snow. First accumulating snow of the season here as well, 12 days later than my average but also not even close to the latest I've recorded. 31/28 with light snow starting to mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Looks like 20s Friday night in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: First accumulating snow of the season here as well, 12 days later than my average but also not even close to the latest I've recorded. 31/28 with light snow starting to mix. Didnt expect accumulating snow here as well. Just under 1" here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 11 minutes ago, lee59 said: Looks like 20s tomorrow night in the city. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 18 minutes ago, lee59 said: Looks like 20s tomorrow night in the city. I think you mean Friday or Saturday night... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 11 minutes ago, qg_omega said: What? My mistake, I changed it. Meant Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 36 and mostly snow here in Dutchess, coating on cars and grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 1 hour ago, snywx said: Didnt expect accumulating snow here as well. Just under 1" here .3” here, still not above freezing but close at 31.7° 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 32 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: .3” here, still not above freezing but close at 31.7° 0.8” here 31.5 here w/ freezing drizzle. Secondary roads are slick. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 30F snowing lightly here in the Berkshires, about 2'' OTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Just nasty here. 43 degrees, wind gusting to 24mph, light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 26 minutes ago, snywx said: 0.8” here 31.5 here w/ freezing drizzle. Secondary roads are slick. Sounds like Ulster county’s roads are a mess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 looks like our next potential shot at something as this vort rounds the trough. GEFS picks up on it well this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 7 hours ago, the_other_guy said: enough already they’re pushing a narrative. It’s 41° out at noon. They’re looking at specific days and saying it’s not as cold as it was supposed to be. it absolutely is. the models just don’t know the day of the week to the exact perfection that they would like. Another night well below freezing I haven’t seen a November this cold in a long time. AND… starting Friday there’s a distinct possibility of an extended period of time where every night is below freezing for the suburbs. Who's pushing a narrative though? HPN is -0.9 this month against historically high normals. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 A cold front will move across the region tomorrow after a storm brings a general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with some locally higher amounts overnight. Ahead of the frontal passage, temperatures will likely soar into the middle and upper 50s. A few places will likely exceed 60°. New York City's annual precipitation, which stood at 49.18" as of 8:39 pm, will surge past 50.00". Years with 50.00" or precipitation have increased dramatically since the City's climate became abruptly wetter in 1972. The frequency of 50.00" or above years is as follows: 1869-1971: Once every 7.9 years 1972-2023*: Once every 2.3 years Since 2000*: Once every 1.8 years *Includes 2023 as a 50.00" year. 2023 currently has 49.70". No year had less than 0.30" from November 19-December 31. The record least precipitation during that timeframe was 0.67" in 1955. Following the storm and frontal passage, somewhat colder air will arrive. Thanksgiving Day will be blustery and cooler, but not harsh. Highs should reach the upper 40s and lower 50s. An even colder air mass should arrive late in the week. Friday night or Saturday morning will likely see New York City experience its first freeze of the season. The remainder of November will likely be generally cooler than normal. However, no Arctic blasts appear likely. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around November 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.70°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter as the current East-based event completes its evolution into a basinwide El Niño. Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965. Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar conditions: December 1972. The SOI was -18.07 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.535 today. On November 19 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.564 (RMM). The November 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.507 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.2° (1.8° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 .5" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Up to .80” 46F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: A cold front will move across the region tomorrow after a storm brings a general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with some locally higher amounts overnight. Ahead of the frontal passage, temperatures will likely soar into the middle and upper 50s. A few places will likely exceed 60°. New York City's annual precipitation, which stood at 49.18" as of 8:39 pm, will surge past 50.00". Years with 50.00" or precipitation have increased dramatically since the City's climate became abruptly wetter in 1972. The frequency of 50.00" or above years is as follows: 1869-1971: Once every 7.9 years 1972-2023*: Once every 2.3 years Since 2000*: Once every 1.8 years *Includes 2023 as a 50.00" year. 2023 currently has 49.70". No year had less than 0.30" from November 19-December 31. The record least precipitation during that timeframe was 0.67" in 1955. Following the storm and frontal passage, somewhat colder air will arrive. Thanksgiving Day will be blustery and cooler, but not harsh. Highs should reach the upper 40s and lower 50s. An even colder air mass should arrive late in the week. Friday night or Saturday morning will likely see New York City experience its first freeze of the season. The remainder of November will likely be generally cooler than normal. However, no Arctic blasts appear likely. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around November 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.70°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter as the current East-based event completes its evolution into a basinwide El Niño. Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965. Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar conditions: December 1972. The SOI was -18.07 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.535 today. On November 19 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.564 (RMM). The November 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.507 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.2° (1.8° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019. Any chance of 55 inches this year? A wet December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Healthy looking squall line moving eastward across central PA. If this holds together it will be approaching the city during the early morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 It was 24 this morning but 21 last year this date…not sure why people thinking this month is abnormally cold… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 3 hours ago, Rjay said: Who's pushing a narrative though? HPN is -0.9 this month against historically high normals. And thats pretty damn cool for the 2010s and 2020s my friend. with quite a cold week ahead to finish the month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Wave is embedded near e PA w NJ but not a lot of dynamics in system, will possibly lead to rumbles of TRW- type, 55-60 air mass will be close to e LI as wave passes. Not likely to act like a squall line except later on over open water late tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Picked up 0.80" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 5 years ago today it was 17 degrees. brrrr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 5 hours ago, the_other_guy said: And thats pretty damn cool for the 2010s and 2020s my friend. with quite a cold week ahead to finish the month Highs were in the 20s on Thanksgiving several years back. The city is still struggling to hit freezing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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