gravitylover Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 2 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Since it's dry out there and we could use a good soaking, I'm glad to see that the models haven't backed down on the heavy rain for tomorrow night. Still looking like a nice 1 to 2 inch soaking. Not dry here. Sure it hasn't rained much this month but the ground is still wet and muddy and the Croton River and all of the reservoirs here are as high as they can be. It's wet right up through Dutchess County and NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Not dry here. Sure it hasn't rained much this month but the ground is still wet and muddy and the Croton River and all of the reservoirs here are as high as they can be. It's wet right up through Dutchess County and NW CT. Grass and trees stopped soaking up the water....the same period in September would end up with dry ground... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 4 hours ago, Allsnow said: We have issued a Freeze Watch for Bronx, Richmond (Staten Island), Southern Nassau, and Hudson Counties 12:00 am-8:00 am EST Tuesday November 21, 2023. The watch is in effect where temps could fall to 30-32 degrees. The growing season has not officially ended here (ends Nov 21). Forget the freeze watch where I am. It was 29 this morning and that is about the 4th or 5th time below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Tomorrow will be increasingly cloudy and somewhat milder. Showers could arrive late in the day or during the evening. Temperatures will generally top out in the upper 40s and lower 50s. A strong cold front will move across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. A storm along the front will bring a general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with some locally higher amounts. New York City's annual precipitation will surge past 50.00". Years with 50.00" or precipitation have increased dramatically since the City's climate became abruptly wetter in 1972. The frequency of 50.00" or above years is as follows: 1869-1971: Once every 7.9 years 1972-2023*: Once every 2.3 years Since 2000*: Once every 1.8 years *Includes 2023 as a 50.00" year. 2023 currently has 49.70". No year had less than 0.30" from November 19-December 31. The record least precipitation during that timeframe was 0.67" in 1955. Following the storm and frontal passage, a renewed shot of cold air will arrive. However, the latest guidance is warmer than it had been previously. Thanksgiving Day will be blustery and cooler. Some additional showers are possible Friday into Saturday. The remainder of November will likely be generally cooler than normal. However, no Arctic blasts appear likely. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around November 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.70°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter as the current East-based event completes its evolution into a basinwide El Niño. Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965. Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar conditions: December 1972. The SOI was not available today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.003 today. On November 18 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.507 (RMM). The November 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.535 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.4° (1.6° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Looks like a stormy night tomorrow night. Heavy rain and winds near 40mph at times, especially near the coast. It has been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Grass and trees stopped soaking up the water....the same period in September would end up with dry ground... Yup. That makes such a big difference but we've been getting enough to keep the surface moist and blocking the lower level moisture from evaporating. Meanwhile the western 40% of the state is dry to very dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Temperatures in parts of the Hudson Valley already in the upper 20s. 37 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 36 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 31 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Looks like a chilly night outside NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like a chilly night outside NYC. If it stays clear, the temperatures could hit single digits in parts of the Catskill and Adirondacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 At 32. My low of the season so far is 25, should probably clear that I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 11 minutes ago, lee59 said: If it stays clear, the temperatures could hit single digits in parts of the Catskill and Adirondacks. Looks like the forecast is for 1° at Saranac Lake but the record is -10°. Saranac Lake Area, NYPeriod of record: 1903-03-01 through 2023-11-19 11/21 -10 in 1933 -3 in 1903 -2 in 2018 https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=137&y=113&site=btv&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=137&map_y=113 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Below normal but nothing crazy for the good rad cooling spots A famous cold spot in our forecast area, Saranac Lake, has a forecast low of around 0 degrees Fahrenheit. It`s only a single night with this frigid cold though, as a storm system approaching will advect in milder air and increasing clouds for the following periods. Cold air drainage special. https://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/21443/why-lake-clear-is-so-very-cold#:~:text="And it was so interesting,air drainage%2C" Werner said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: Cold air drainage special. https://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/21443/why-lake-clear-is-so-very-cold#:~:text="And it was so interesting,air drainage%2C" Werner said. Interesting article. I have found on calm, clear nights, the temperature difference can be surprising over very short distances. In February of 1979 Old Forge NY (not to far from Saranac Lake) hit the NY State record low of -52 degrees. Would have been interesting to know what the temperature was at Lake Clear that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 NYC waits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 the cams show an impressively large area of 2" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 finally a wet nino stj system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: NYC waits Awful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Nyc down to 34 at 4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Awful They'll fall below freezing this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 28F here this AM. High of 43 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 36 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Looks like the low topped squall and 40+ mph gusts come through early tomorrow. Then a mostly dry day for travel with highs near 60° on Long Island. Then a seasonable and dry Thanksgiving with highs in the low 50s. So great travel weather around the holiday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 30 degrees this morning with another night this month below frz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Coldest of the season, 33 with the freeze warning. Did touch 32 briefly. Temp been sitting right on the 32/33 mark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Down to 33 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Looks like the low at the park will be 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 27 degrees in Paramus this morning. Love this crisp cold air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 23 here at 6am 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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