November 2023

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the IO forcing is pretty handily running the show, though. i don't think the two are really related... there isn't some permanent Nina background state, we've just had a bunch of them recently

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01801-6

Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas

Abstract

Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted two to three years. Why so many long-lasting multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common remains unknown. Here we show that ten multiyear La Niña events over the past century had an accelerated trend, with eight of these occurring after 1970. The two types of multiyear La Niña events over this time period followed either a super El Niño or a central Pacific El Niño. We find that multiyear La Niña events differ from single-year La Niñas by a prominent onset rate, which is rooted in the western Pacific warming-enhanced zonal advective feedback for the central Pacific multiyear La Niña events type and thermocline feedback for the super El Niño multiyear La Niña events type. The results from large ensemble climate simulations support the observed multiyear La Niña events–western Pacific warming link. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse socioeconomic impacts if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01801-6

Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas

Abstract

Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted two to three years. Why so many long-lasting multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common remains unknown. Here we show that ten multiyear La Niña events over the past century had an accelerated trend, with eight of these occurring after 1970. The two types of multiyear La Niña events over this time period followed either a super El Niño or a central Pacific El Niño. We find that multiyear La Niña events differ from single-year La Niñas by a prominent onset rate, which is rooted in the western Pacific warming-enhanced zonal advective feedback for the central Pacific multiyear La Niña events type and thermocline feedback for the super El Niño multiyear La Niña events type. The results from large ensemble climate simulations support the observed multiyear La Niña events–western Pacific warming link. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse socioeconomic impacts if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central 

i get that, but there is a strong El Nino ongoing with strong IO forcing. that should run the show. sure, will we get some periods where the forcing drifts into the MC? yes, but I don't think it'll be a consistent feature. the MJO should stay in 7-8-1-2 for the most part, pushing into 3 and 4 at times

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

As long as we have this perma-Nina background state we'll struggle. Hopefully either the Nino can finally overpower it or we get lucky with blocking like Feb 2021.

Something will, I am sure this has happened before. 

[bluewave]

57 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i get that, but there is a strong El Nino ongoing with strong IO forcing. that should run the show. sure, will we get some periods where the forcing drifts into the MC? yes, but I don't think it'll be a consistent feature. the MJO should stay in 7-8-1-2 for the most part, pushing into 3 and 4 at times

I would say the fall pattern has been a blend of La Niña and El Niño influences. 

[North and West]

the IO forcing is pretty handily running the show, though. i don't think the two are really related... there isn't some permanent Nina background state, we've just had a bunch of them recently

For the idiots, what’s IO?


.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

For the idiots, what’s IO?


.

indian ocean

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

tone of potential in the long range. I don't follow the weather as much as I used as I used to be a feen now I am more of an enthusiast. I see some good potential for snow for our area in the future. I am not an expert, but what do you think?

T


.

You'll always be our expert, Tony

[psv88]

Beautiful day today. Touched 58, well above forecast 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Beautiful day today. Touched 58, well above forecast 

Funny I started below and went above forecast

[brooklynwx99]

really a very nice pattern heading into the last week of November. wish this was a month later but not much has changed... there should be some threats with this look

[donsutherland1]

Today was another fine fall day with bright sunshine and pleasant, if not mild temperatures. Four photos before all the leaves come down.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and chilly with temperatures reaching the middle and upper 40s in much of the region. The cool weather will continue through Tuesday.

Afterward, a strong cold front will move across the region during the middle of the week. A storm will move along the front bringing a significant rainfall to the region. A general 1.00"-2.00" with locally higher amounts is likely.

New York City's annual precipitation will surge past 50.00". Years with 50.00" or precipitation have increased dramatically since the City's climate became abruptly wetter in 1972.

The frequency of 50.00" or above years is as follows:

1869-1971: Once every 7.9 years
1972-2023*: Once every 2.3 years
Since 2000*: Once every 1.8 years

*Includes 2023 as a 50.00" year. 2023 currently has 49.70". No year had less than 0.30" from November 19-December 31. The record least precipitation during that timeframe was 0.67" in 1955.

Following the storm and frontal passage, a renewed shot of cold air will arrive. Thanksgiving Day will be blustery and cold. Another system could bring at least some precipitation to the region on Friday into Saturday. Generally cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through the remainder of November.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around November 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.63°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event continuing to evolve into a basinwide El Niño.

Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965.

Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar conditions: December 1972.

The SOI was +1.65 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.003 today.

On November 17 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.535 (RMM). The November 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.563 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.1° (1.9° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019.

 

[wishcast_hater]

lol

2 Weeks ago the long range showed no cold and even a warm Thanksgiving. Long range is a crap shoot at best.


.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

2 Weeks ago the long range showed no cold and even a warm Thanksgiving. Long range is a crap shoot at best.


.

Gfs is active and cold in the long range.  

[nycwinter]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is active and cold in the long range.  

i trust the euro way more...

[SnoSki14]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is active and cold in the long range.  

GFS has a massive cold bias 

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

really a very nice pattern heading into the last week of November. wish this was a month later but not much has changed... there should be some threats with this look

No it's not bad but things could get pushed back again so I'm very weary of any long range outlook 

[JerseyWx]

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

No point looking at model runs in the long range.

 

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is active and cold in the long range.  

 

[MJO812]

34 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS has a massive cold bias 

Eps is similiar

Winter is coming 

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i trust the euro way more...

LOL

[SACRUS]

 

57 for a high and now down to 40

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 70 (1953)
NYC:  72 (1921)
LGA: 70 (1953)

 

 

Lows:

 

EWR: 22 (2014) 
NYC: 18 (1936)
LGA: 22 (2014)

 

Historical:

 

1921 - The Columbia Gorge ice storm finally came to an end. In Oregon, 54 inches of snow, sleet and glaze blocked the Columbia River Highway at the Dalles. Apart from traffic on the river itself, all transportation between Walla Walla WA and Portland OR came to a halt. Nine trains were stopped as railroads were blocked for several days. (David Ludlum)

1930: A rare, estimated F4 tornado struck the town of Bethany, Oklahoma. Between 9:30 am and 9:58 am CST, it moved north-northeast from 3 miles west of the Oklahoma City limits, and hit the eastern part of Bethany. About 110 homes and 700 other buildings, or about a fourth of the town, were damaged or destroyed. Near the end of the damage path, 3.5 miles northeast of Wiley Post Airfield, the tornado hit the Camel Creek School. Buildings blew apart just as the students were falling to the floor and looking for shelter, and five students and a teacher were killed. A total of 23 people were killed and another 150 injured, with 77 being seriously injured. Damage estimates were listed at $500,000.

1957 - Nineteen inches of snow covered the ground at Cresco, IA, a record November snow depth for the state. (The Weather Channel)

1981 - An unusually early snowstorm struck the Twin Cities of Minnesota, with as much as a foot of snow reported. The weight of the heavy snow caused the newly inflated fabric dome of the Hubert Humphrey Metrodome in downtown Minneapolis to collapse and rip. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A sharp cold front pushed across the Great Lakes Region and the Mississippi Valley. Northwest winds gusting to 50 mph in Iowa caused some property damage around Ottumwa, and wind chill readings reached 16 degrees below zero at Hibbing MN. Showers and thunder- storms over Florida produced 5.80 inches of rain in six hours at Cocoa Beach. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Strong thunderstorms developed during the mid morning hours and produced severe weather across eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into the wee hours of the night. Thunderstorms spawned twenty-one tornadoes, including thirteen in Mississippi. One tornado killed two persons and injured eleven others at Nettleton MS, and another tornado injured eight persons at Tuscaloosa AL. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail in east Texas and northern Louisiana, and Summit MS was deluged with six inches of rain in four hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Gale force winds continued to produce squalls in the Lower Great Lakes Region early in the day. Snowfall totals in western New York State reached 24 inches in southern Lewis County, with 21 inches reported at Highmarket. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the Northern and Central Plains Region. Eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Denver CO with a reading of 79 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2003 - Flooding affected the central Appalachians and Eastern Seaboard, with some isolated 8-inch rainfall totals across mountainous areas. There were 11 deaths caused by flooding in the region (Associated Press).

[Brian5671]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is similiar

Winter is coming 

It may not be.  The cool down is muted and we head into Phases 4-5-6 as we get further into December...might have to wait a month for anything meaningful....

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It may not be.  The cool down is muted and we head into Phases 4-5-6 as we get further into December...might have to wait a month for anything meaningful....

The MJO response looks very muted though. It mostly hangs in the circle. 

Also not sure what the response of those phases in a Nino for Dec mean. It may not mean much given a mixed Nina/Nino response.

It's going to be a nightmare for models that's for sure.

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It may not be.  The cool down is muted and we head into Phases 4-5-6 as we get further into December...might have to wait a month for anything meaningful....

That's fine but we have a chance in early December before it gets mild.

[weathermedic]

Cold front just moved through here. Winds gusted to near 30 mph as they shifted from westerly to the north. Temp down to 45

[the_other_guy]

32F this morning. Nice cold November, too many people keep talking about hypothetical warmth.

 

stop making yourself miserable and enjoy whats around you outside! I can’t remember the last time I had so many nights below freezing in November

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

32F this morning. Nice cold November, too many people keep talking about hypothetical warmth.

 

stop making yourself miserable and enjoy whats around you outside! I can’t remember the last time I had so many nights below freezing in November

I can't even get below 40 here. Smfh.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I can't even get below 40 here. Smfh.

Tonight looks like it may be the coldest night of the fall so far in NYC. The MOS is down to 34° and some models have 33°. Then the temperatures rebound. What was supposed to be a Thanksgiving cooldown now has highs in the low 50s for NYC which is pretty much close to average. 

 

[Allsnow]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I can't even get below 40 here. Smfh.

You might get 32 tonight, Anthony.