November 2023

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

For the younger folks, 1980s weather. I remember TWC used to use the phrase "just a cold snap in the northeast followed by warmer temps". Definitely would never want to relive the 80s winters again.

 

 

I think that we may be in the middle of such a period again right now.  I don’t know what it’s going to take to end it though.  Seeing the models already moving the center of next week’s cold to our west is just a continuation of what we have seen the past few years and, unfortunately, doesn’t bode well for us winter weather lovers.  Might be another year of “take what we can get.”

[psv88]

I just want to use my snowblower once. That’s all. It takes up a ton of space 

[North and West]

It's not even winter yet. The same knuckleheads keep doing this every year.

It’s like turkey for Thanksgiving and gifts for Christmas. Same church, different pew.


.

[North and West]

It will be our turn again. May take a while. 

Agreed - might not be this year, may not be next year, but it will happen.


.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Eduardo said:

I think that we may be in the middle of such a period again right now.  I don’t know what it’s going to take to end it though.  Seeing the models already moving the center of next week’s cold to our west is just a continuation of what we have seen the past few years and, unfortunately, doesn’t bode well for us winter weather lovers.  Might be another year of “take what we can get.”

Yeah, 1955 through 1969 looked like it was extremely snowey, likely like 2000 through 2018. 

It was a horrible 30 year period for snowfall in between. Not saying we are in another 30 lull, however we have to know that 2000 through 2018 was not the NORM, nor is this period. It changes. We will 100% see another period like 2000 through 2018 or 55 through 69 again, but I would not be shocked if this is our norm for a number of years, with good years sprinkled in.

Although 70 through 1999 were terrible, 77, 78, 94 and 96 were tremendous. 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I think that we may be in the middle of such a period again right now.  I don’t know what it’s going to take to end it though.  Seeing the models already moving the center of next week’s cold to our west is just a continuation of what we have seen the past few years and, unfortunately, doesn’t bode well for us winter weather lovers.  Might be another year of “take what we can get.”

We have had snow droughts before, but never an 8 winter cold drought before. 

[WX-PA]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have had snow droughts before, but never an 8 winter cold drought before. 

Well thats good for my old bones. Hate dry and cold.

[Intensewind002]

24 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah history repeating itself. Its the west coast turn. We had our fun 2000 through 2018. 1955 through 1969 seemed really snowy too looking at the KU book. 30 year periods between great periods?

2020-21 and 2021-22 were both decent winters though for parts of the region

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 73 (1963)
NYC: 73 (1928)
LGA: 72 (1953)

Lows:

EWR:  19 (1936)
NYC: 18 (1936)
LGA: 22 (1959)

 

Historical:

 

 

1873 - A severe storm raged from Georgia to Nova Scotia causing great losses to fishing fleets along the coast. In Maine, the barometric pressure reached 28.49 inches at Portland. (David Ludlum)

1955 - An early season cold snap finally came to an end. Helena, MT, experienced 138 consecutive hours of subzero temperatures, including a reading of 29 below zero, which surpassed by seven degrees their previous record for the month of November. Missoula MT broke their November record by 12 degrees with a reading of 23 below zero, and Salt Lake City UT smashed their previous November record of zero with a reading of 14 below. Heavy snow in the Great Basin closed Donner Pass CA, and total crop damage from the cold wave amounted to eleven million dollars. (David Ludlum)

1957 - A tornado, 100 yards in width, travelled a nearly straight as an arrow 27-mile path from near Rosa AL to near Albertville AL, killing three persons. A home in the Susan Moore community in Blount County was picked up and dropped 500 feet away killing one person. (The Weather Channel)

1986 - The first of two successive snowstorms struck the northeastern U.S. The storm produced up to 20 inches of snow in southern New Hampshire. Two days later a second storm produced up to 30 inches of snow in northern Maine. (Storm Data)

1987 - It was a windy day across parts of the nation. Gale force winds whipped the Great Lakes Region. Winds gusting to 80 mph in western New York State damaged buildings and flipped over flatbed trailers at Churchville. In Montana, high winds in the Upper Yellowstone Valley gusted to 64 mph at Livingston. Strong Santa Ana winds buffeted the mountains and valleys of southern California. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a warm front drenched Little Rock AR with 7.01 inches of rain, smashing their previous record for the date of 1.91 inches. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A second surge of arctic air brought record cold to parts of the north central U.S. Eleven cities in the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date, including Rochester MN with a reading of 4 degrees below zero. Strong winds ushering the arctic air into the north central U.S. produced squalls in the Lower Great Lakes Region. Snowfall totals in northern Ohio ranged up to twenty inches in Ashatabula County and Geauga County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, North and West said:

Agreed - might not be this year, may not be next year, but it will happen.


.

Good chance this winter with the active stj .

[Allsnow]

Tuesday morning freeze for nyc? 

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

2020-21 and 2021-22 were both decent winters though for parts of the region

Yeah one of those was above average snowfall.

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

couple light showers here this AM but the dry spell continues .25 since 10/29

 I don't usually care as much about getting rain once the gardening season has ended, but it's very dry out there. Dry dirt was flying when I was doing leaf cleanup yesterday. We really could use a good soaking. Hopefully we'll get at least an inch from the Tuesday night storm. 

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I think he means that the models aren't as cold as they were.

Yep it's gonna be chilly for the holiday, but not as impressive as it was looking. A few days ago it looked like high temps in the low-mid 40s for Thursday and Friday, but now it appears high temps will be near 50. Just near normal weather for late november. 

[psv88]

15 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep it's gonna be chilly for the holiday, but not as impressive as it was looking. A few days ago it looked like high temps in the low-mid 40s for Thursday and Friday, but now it appears high temps will be near 50. Just near normal weather for late november. 

Average is the new “cold”…

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We have had snow droughts before, but never an 8 winter cold drought before. 

This is true, Chris. 2017-2018 was a cold one, so I dunno if it’d be 8 straight years of cold drought, but your point still stands. I wasn’t around for the 80s, but I remember the late 90s winters being mild and boring as well.

[forkyfork]

the 80s were frigid with near average snow. nothing close to the furnace winters we've been seeing

[psv88]

New England forum meltdown pre thanksgiving. Ya hate to see it 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

I just want to use my snowblower once. That’s all. It takes up a ton of space 

If we get one big Nino fueled monster and nothing else this winter I’ll be more than happy. The opportunities will probably be there if we can ever get some cold to time with them. 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

 I don't usually care as much about getting rain once the gardening season has ended, but it's very dry out there. Dry dirt was flying when I was doing leaf cleanup yesterday. We really could use a good soaking. Hopefully we'll get at least an inch from the Tuesday night storm. 

Wouldn’t surprise me if Tue PM becomes a regular cold/cool front without much rain. The trough is shearing out more and more which means less energy available to develop a consolidated storm and heavy precip. 

[bluewave]

59 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

This is true, Chris. 2017-2018 was a cold one, so I dunno if it’d be 8 straight years of cold drought, but your point still stands. I wasn’t around for the 80s, but I remember the late 90s winters being mild and boring as well.

The 17-18 winter was +1.1 warmer than average due to the record 80° warmth in February. So the cold departures from December into January got erased by the big +6.1 departure in February. 

NYC

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6

…………..+4.8

 

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

……………..+1.0

 

Feb 21….-1.7

Jan 21….+1.1

Dec 20…+1.7

…………..+0.4

 

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

…………….+4.0

 

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

…………….+4.2

 

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

…………….+5.9

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 17-18 winter was +1.1 warmer than average due to the record 80° warmth in February. So the cold departures from December into January got erased.

 

NYC

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6

…………..+4.8

 

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

……………..+1.0

 

Feb 21….-1.7

Jan 21….+1.1

Dec 20…+1.7

…………..+0.4

 

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

…………….+4.0

 

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

…………….+4.2

 

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

…………….+5.9

Yup. That was a product of the SSW which lead to the blocking for the historic March snowfalls. 

[Allsnow]

On 11/17/2023 at 8:59 AM, bluewave said:

OP models coming around to the idea of a warm up right after Thanksgiving as the Southeast ridge flexes. But there is still a lot of spread in the ensembles. With the convection returning near the Maritime Continent, it’s possible that the coldest departures stay to our west again. 
 

Looks like the cold in the east was rushed by the models. Gfs did a great job picking up on this first. Hopefully not a case of delayed and denied but I do feel the artic air will come east eventually 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like the cold in the east was rushed by the models. Gfs did a great job picking up on this first. Hopefully not a case of delayed and denied but I do feel the artic air will come east eventually 

Euro is cold on day 9 after a big rainstorm next weekend

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro is cold on day 9 after a big rainstorm next weekend

Yeah, eps is similar with perhaps a snow chance as we go into December 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. That was a product of the SSW which lead to the blocking for the historic March snowfalls. 

That was still one of my favorite snowfall seasons. Probably the greatest Euro control run in history. The 950 mb benchmark blizzard could be the last time one of these Lockitin posts actually verified. 
 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Jan42018

 

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That was still one of my favorite snowfall seasons. Probably the greatest Euro control run in history. The 950 mb benchmark blizzard could be the last time one of these Lockitin posts actually verified. 
 

 

That was an epic storm. Too bad it was so fast moving. 4-5 hour all out blizzard. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

That was an epic storm. Too bad it was so fast moving. 4-5 hour all out blizzard. 

That storm was all +pna and -epo driven…

Nothing on the Atlantic side to slow it down or shift it west 

[Chinook]

For those who like to track the weather with surface observations: The Aviation Weather Center has upgraded its interface for showing surface observations, with fronts, SLP, radar, satellite, and other related overlays

 

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

The cold air comes pouring after next week on the cmc.

that's 8-10 days away on an OP model...