CIK62 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 46degs.(44/51) or Normal. Reached 63 here yesterday at 2pm. Today: 64-67, wind s., increasing clouds, 54 tomorrow AM. 52*(76%RH) here at 6am. 60* at Noon. Reached 61* at 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 43 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs lost it completely Gfs op is a joke. The flipping is insane. 46 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Cold after thanksgiving is fleeting Hard disagree. Very strong ensemble support that last week of November will be very cool. However I do think we warm up once December begins and there's ensemble support for that too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 OP models coming around to the idea of a warm up right after Thanksgiving as the Southeast ridge flexes. But there is still a lot of spread in the ensembles. With the convection returning near the Maritime Continent, it’s possible that the coldest departures stay to our west again. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: OP models coming around to the idea of a warm up right after Thanksgiving as the Southeast ridge flexes. But there is still a lot of spread in the ensembles. With the convection returning near the Maritime Continent, it’s possible that the coldest departures stay to our west again. Yeah I'll need to see more ensemble support. OP runs are extremely fickle given the chaotic pattern we're in. For example they were way too warm for this current warmup period. Of course a warm-up wouldn't be shocking by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Cold after thanksgiving is fleeting Still 10 days away as I told you last time you promised me record heat. need to stop preaching gospel beyond 5 days 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 26 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Still 10 days away as I told you last time you promised me record heat. need to stop preaching gospel beyond 5 days DING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Manchester on Accuweather is showing 24 for a low and 43 for a high on Thanksgiving for me (I use that station despite being in TR bc it’s closer to the temps I actually experience being on the inland border). Definitely a chilly holiday this year. I’m curious if I can break the teens overnight as I did last Nov during the cooldown around the 20th. Looking ahead I finished reading @40/70 Benchmark’s outlook for winter and thought it was an excellent read. Highly recommend checking out his blog, he put a crazy amount of work into it and I can’t emphasize that enough. He thinks 25-35 inches this year for NYC. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/11/winter-23-24-will-be-lesson-in.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah I'll need to see more ensemble support. OP runs are extremely fickle given the chaotic pattern we're in. For example they were way too warm for this current warmup period. Of course a warm-up wouldn't be shocking by any means. It’s mostly that the days have been off beyond a week which is par for the course. Instead of the warmth for Thanksgiving, it just got moved up a day. Then probably another warm up after the Thanksgiving cooldown. But the exact dates after to be determined. The last time we had a really cold Thanksgiving was back in 2018. But this year will be much warmer than that. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/11/23/northeast-endured-its-most-frigid-thanksgiving-decades-record-cold-persists-black-friday/ Data for November 22, 2018 through November 22, 2018Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Lowest Min Temperature CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 10 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 12 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 12 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 13 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 13 CT DANBURY COOP 13 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 14 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 14 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 14 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 15 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 15 NY WEST POINT COOP 15 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 15 CT GROTON COOP 15 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 16 NY MATTITUCK COOP 16 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 16 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 17 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 17 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 17 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 17 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 17 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 17 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 17 NJ HARRISON COOP 18 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 18 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 18 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 18 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 18 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 19 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 19 NY CENTERPORT COOP 19 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 19 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 19 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 19 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 19 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 20 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Morristown is up 34 degrees in 5 hours after bottoming out at 30 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 3 hours ago, North and West said: DING One would think 5-10 "general" forecasts (warmer, colder, drier, wetter) should be achievable? Is it that the models just weren't designed to deal with the persisten Pacific jet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Morristown is up 34 degrees in 5 hours after bottoming out at 30 That's my house! Morristown Airport is in the valley a few hundred feet lower than my house; it gets coooooold at night, and radiates really well, so it's never surprising to read this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Temperatures soared into the middle and upper 60s in advance of an approaching cold front. Meanwhile, Anchorage saw its November snowfall reach 39.1". That broke the November record of 38.8" from 1994 and is the 5th highest monthly figure on record. November 1994 saw an El Niño with a strongly negative PDO. The warmth will soon be a memory. A cold front will cross the region tonight bringing scattered showers. In its wake, temperatures will hold nearly steady tomorrow morning and then fall during the afternoon. Cool weather will continue through Tuesday. Afterward, a strong cold front will move across the region during the middle of the week. A moderate to significant rainfall is likely. Afterward, the coldest air of the season will arrive. Thanksgiving Day could be blustery and very cold for the season with the temperature struggling to reach the lower 40s in New York City and Philadelphia. Temperatures will slowly moderate afterward. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around November 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.63°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño. That transition continues. Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965. Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar conditions: December 1972. The SOI was -0.07 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.539 today. On November 15 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.637 (RMM). The November 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.666 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (2.0° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Again up to 68 ahead of the clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Morristown is up 34 degrees in 5 hours after bottoming out at 30 3rd greatest 5 hour temperarure rise in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Records: Highs: EWR: 71 (1953) NYC: 71 (1953) LGA: 72 (1953) Lows: EWR: 18 (1933) NYC: 19 (1933) LGA: 27 (1959) Historical: 1869 - Southwest winds of hurricane force swept the Berkshire and Green Mountains of New England causing extensive forest and structural damage. (David Ludlum) 1927 - A tornado cut a seventeen mile path across Alexandria and southeastern Washington, DC, injuring 31 persons. The tornado struck the Naval Air Station where a wind gust of 93 mph was recorded. A waterspout was seen over the Potomac River ninety minutes later. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1927: A tornado (at times to 260 yards wide) cut a seventeen-mile path through Alexandria, Virginia across the District of Columbia from the Navy yard to Benning Rd. & 19th St. NE and Northeast to East Riverdale, Maryland. This storm injured 31 people. The tornado struck the Naval Air Station where a wind gust of 93 mph was recorded. 1953 - The temperature at Minneapolis, MN, reached 71 degrees, their warmest reading of record for so late in the autumn. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A storm in the Rockies produced 21 inches of snow at the Monarch ski resort in Colorado, with 14 inches reported at Steamboat Springs CO. Early morning thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. drenched Mary Esther FL with 4.43 inches of rain. Gale force winds over the Great Lakes Region gusted to 49 mph at Johnstown PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Another in a series of storms brought heavy snow to the mountains of the western U.S. Totals ranged up to 17 inches at Bob Scott Summit in Nevada. Winds around Reno NV gusted to 80 mph. The Alta and Sundance ski resorts in Utah received 14 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Freezing temperatures overspread the southeastern U.S. in the wake of the severe weather outbreak of the previous two days. Eight cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Gilbert AR with a reading of 8 degrees. A fast moving storm blanketed the Great Lakes Region and Upper Ohio Valley with snow during the night. Totals ranged up to 12 inches at Pellston MI and Little Valley NY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2013: An unusually powerful storm system spun up five dozen tornadoes from the Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley. Two EF4 twisters struck Illinois, hitting the communities of Washington and New Minden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah I'll need to see more ensemble support. OP runs are extremely fickle given the chaotic pattern we're in. For example they were way too warm for this current warmup period. Of course a warm-up wouldn't be shocking by any means. 18z GFS OP run does the happy hour tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 High of 65 here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 I think the op runs are being silly… the ens continue to show cold air in the east. The gefs and eps are very cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I think the op runs are being silly… the ens continue to show cold air in the east. The gefs and eps are very cold The Met on NBC 10 Philly led off his segment at 7PM with the 18z OP GFS for Tuesday. And so the fun begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: I think the op runs are being silly… the ens continue to show cold air in the east. The gefs and eps are very cold Our big Thanksgiving Eve storm on the GFS is turning into a sheared out mess with energy burying into the SW. I guess fewer flight delays that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 15 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Our big Thanksgiving Eve storm on the GFS is turning into a sheared out mess with energy burying into the SW. I guess fewer flight delays that way. Active pattern on the models. Inland areas have a chance of snow next week. We have to wait a little longer for the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 66 today. Warmest since I’ve been here since 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 6 hours ago, bluewave said: 3rd greatest 5 hour temperarure rise in November. If no measurable rainfall tonight or tomorrow at ewr will this be the first time no rain has fallen for the first 20 days of a month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Ensembles backing off on cold around Thanksgiving with a warm up right after. So similar pattern of recent years with models underestimating the Southeast ridge day 6-10. New run Old run 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 48degs.(43/52) or +2. Reached 61 yesterday at 2pm. Today: Falling T's from 60 to 48, wind nw., drizzle early-then clearing, 40 by tomorrow AM. 58*(86%RH) here at 6am, drizzle. 55* at 9am. 51* at 10am. 51* at Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 14 hours ago, SACRUS said: 1987 - A storm in the Rockies produced 21 inches of snow at the Monarch ski resort in Colorado, with 14 inches reported at Steamboat Springs CO. We had already been skiing in the high country along the Divide for almost 2 months at this point. There had been a few storms that dropped a foot or more. This storm was the final push the ski area needed before opening day a few days later. The area opened to the top which almost never happens and the conditions were more like midwinter than November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 i do not mind temps around 50 cold enough to wear a open coat and no gloves... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Low of 52 now to 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 51 here this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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