WX-PA Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, that was the heaviest single snowstorm of the 1980s. I can remember looking out the window of the LB High school just after noon and wondering why it was taking so long to start. But when I looked out a few minutes later it went from nothing to very heavy snow in about 10 minutes. It wasn’t until January 1996 that we had a snowstorm that was able to surpass it. 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, that was the heaviest single snowstorm of the 1980s. I can remember looking out the window of the LB High school just after noon and wondering why it was taking so long to start. But when I looked out a few minutes later it went from nothing to very heavy snow in about 10 minutes. It wasn’t until January 1996 that we had a snowstorm that was able to surpass it. Think you forgot Feb 1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, that was the heaviest single snowstorm of the 1980s. I can remember looking out the window of the LB High school just after noon and wondering why it was taking so long to start. But when I looked out a few minutes later it went from nothing to very heavy snow in about 10 minutes. It wasn’t until January 1996 that we had a snowstorm that was able to surpass it. It's funny in today's times school would not even open on a day like this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Think you forgot Feb 1983. He is likely referring to intensity as the 87 January storm dumped it all in eight hours and February 83 was long duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 12 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Think you forgot Feb 1983. The post you quoted from me was referring to February 83 which was our heaviest 80s snowstorm. Growing up in Allentown the neighbors who had been around for a while would talk about February 1983 before 1996 even though the latter ended up as a slightly bigger storm in terms of accumulations (30" vs 25"). I think it was the intensity that made such an impression, 1996 was 36 hours of steady snow while 83 came in like a wall and dropped 5" in an hour at one point. Yeah, that was the heaviest single snowstorm of the 1980s. I can remember looking out the window of the LB High school just after noon and wondering why it was taking so long to start. But when I looked out a few minutes later it went from nothing to very heavy snow in about 10 minutes. It wasn’t until January 1996 that we had a snowstorm that was able to surpass it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 58 minutes ago, FPizz said: This one was the one that made me love snow. 12" of snow in CNJ as a 9 year old seemed like a ton. 12” of snow in Central NJ from one storm is still a ton. We’ve been spoiled since the early 2000s. I remember the late 90s were horrendous. Between April 1996 and 12/30/00 couldn’t get any event more than a few inches. Don’t want to disturb the hornet nest but we’re due for a down period again. Hopefully this winter can produce but the background Niña state and -PDO is always a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 69 earlier, 65 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 39 minutes ago, qg_omega said: How're you feeling about this prediction so far? On 11/9/2023 at 6:48 AM, qg_omega said: Time will tell but I have a hard time seeing how November doesn’t finish at least 1 degree above normal if not more Looks like Central Park is running 2.0F below normal through the 15th. According to the 0z EPS it looks like they'll be running around normal for the next 7 days and then 3-5F below normal for the following 7 days to close out the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 8 hours ago, bluewave said: The 80s were known for the big 3. Historic April 82 blizzard that still stands as our greatest late season blizzard. The famous February 83 snowstorm. Then the surprise January 87 snowstorm that was supposed to quickly change to rain but dropped near 10” on Long Island. You could also add the surprise December 88 Norlun that dropped around 10” on Long Island. But the snow band was so narrow that Western Suffolk had close to 12” and Long Beach got nothing. So it was too limited in coverage for me to add to my big 3 list. On the Nassau south shore that snow hung on til about 3:30 or so. I remember looking out the window at school, already cursed with enough meteorology knowledge to know that rain was on the doorstep, and so was unable to share in the joy of my bilssfully innocent classmates, yet shocked at this storm which was breaking the 'inevitable changeover to rain' axiom that I'd come to just concede as a fact of life. Will never forget shoveling my driveway after school in what had by then in fact finally become rain. It was without a doubt the most waterlogged, brutally heavy snow to shovel that I've ever experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 How's the rain looking Saturday? Spotty? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 51 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 12” of snow in Central NJ from one storm is still a ton. We’ve been spoiled since the early 2000s. I remember the late 90s were horrendous. Between April 1996 and 12/30/00 couldn’t get any event more than a few inches. Don’t want to disturb the hornet nest but we’re due for a down period again. Hopefully this winter can produce but the background Niña state and -PDO is always a concern. We've pretty much been in a down period since March 2018, with the exception of February 2021 (and maybe January 2022 for eastern areas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 56 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 12” of snow in Central NJ from one storm is still a ton. We’ve been spoiled since the early 2000s. I remember the late 90s were horrendous. Between April 1996 and 12/30/00 couldn’t get any event more than a few inches. Don’t want to disturb the hornet nest but we’re due for a down period again. Hopefully this winter can produce but the background Niña state and -PDO is always a concern. It is, I was just saying as a kid it seemed overwhelming and didn't think I'd see anything like it again. I was quite wrong, lol. I appreciate all snow knowing that seasons like last year happen, so I enjoy what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: 12” of snow in Central NJ from one storm is still a ton. We’ve been spoiled since the early 2000s. I remember the late 90s were horrendous. Between April 1996 and 12/30/00 couldn’t get any event more than a few inches. Don’t want to disturb the hornet nest but we’re due for a down period again. Hopefully this winter can produce but the background Niña state and -PDO is always a concern. The March 99 heavy wet snow event was probably the best one in that disappointing stretch. Probably one of the lowest snow ratios we ever got in Long Beach. There was so much water content in that snow that the snapping sycamore branches sounded like gunshots in Long Beach. Data for March 14, 1999 through March 15, 1999Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 9.5 CT DANBURY COOP 9.2 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 9.0 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 9.0 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 8.8 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 8.3 CT COCKAPONSET RANGER STA COOP 8.0 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 8.0 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 7.9 CT GROTON COOP 7.0 NY MINEOLA 1 NE COOP 6.1 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 6.0 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 6.0 NY OCEANSIDE COOP 5.8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: Upto 68, perhaps stray 70 today and low 70s tomorrow in the sunnoer/warmer spots You live in the hottest place in the region. Sucks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 30 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: You live in the hottest place in the region. Sucks I thought that was Tony? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 I thought that was Tony? who's tony? any chance we get some snow next week in the burbs?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 Coldest Thanksgiving in years ?In five years, sure.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 22 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said: who's tony? any chance we get some snow next week in the burbs? . MJ0812 doubt anyone gets snow with a storm track to our west which will bring strong S/SE winds and maritime air inland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 turkey bomb 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 55 minutes ago, forkyfork said: turkey bomb 18z GFS is also on board too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Tomorrow will be another very mild day. Highs will reach the middle and upper 60s. A few locations could reach 70°. However, a cold front will move across the region Friday night into Saturday bringing some showers. Generally rainfall amounts should be light (less than 0.25"). The long-range guidance has shifted. It now shows cooler air overspreading the region near or during the Thanksgiving Day holiday. The responsible cold front could bring a moderate to significant rainfall to the region. The colder conditions could last through the remainder of November. The shift in the guidance reaffirms the limitations of guidance beyond Week 2 and the reality that such outlooks are low-skill in nature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around November 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.63°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño. That transition continues. Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965. The SOI was -10.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.417 today. On November 15 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.637 (RMM). The November 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.666 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.1° (1.9° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 7 hours ago, Gravity Wave said: Growing up in Allentown the neighbors who had been around for a while would talk about February 1983 before 1996 even though the latter ended up as a slightly bigger storm in terms of accumulations (30" vs 25"). I think it was the intensity that made such an impression, 1996 was 36 hours of steady snow while 83 came in like a wall and dropped 5" in an hour at one point. 83 came in like a wall where I was on the north shore of LI as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 It’s never going to snow again 2 1 2 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 The 18z and 00z GFS continues to be very wet for the Thanksgiving eve storm. Widespread 1-3" of rain locally higher amounts possible. The 12 Euro looked quite wet also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 14 hours ago, Brian5671 said: I thought that was Tony? 68 was about in line with C/NE NJ. EWR 69,New Brnswck: 68 yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 It would be funny if NYC misses a freeze again for Thanksgiving. Some models drop the winds pretty quickly behind the front with very weak CAA. But Wednesday looks like the milder day ahead of the front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: It would be funny if NYC misses a freeze again for Thanksgiving. Some models drop the winds pretty quickly behind the front with very weak CAA. But Wednesday looks like the milder day ahead of the front. I need to get the working theory on this forum to wrap my head around why the city can’t freeze anymore… They don’t radiate because of the UHI and need winds from the northwest to freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Cold after thanksgiving is fleeting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Cold after thanksgiving is fleeting Gfs lost it completely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 20 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I need to get the working theory on this forum to wrap my head around why the city can’t freeze anymore… They don’t radiate because of the UHI and need winds from the northwest to freeze? It’s more the nature of the colder air masses this fall so far. Fronts come through and winds drop off pretty quickly. There hasn’t been any strong cold air advection behind the fronts. But this isn’t that unusual as the average first freeze in NYC last decade is 11-16. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 03-01 (2020) 10-31 (2020) 215 Mean 03-29 11-16 232 Maximum 04-16 (2014) 12-09 (2016) 243 2022 03-30 (2022) 29 11-19 (2022) 31 233 2021 04-03 (2021) 32 11-23 (2021) 32 233 2020 03-01 (2020) 25 10-31 (2020) 32 243 2019 03-18 (2019) 32 11-08 (2019) 29 234 2018 04-09 (2018) 32 11-14 (2018) 32 218 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 29 242 2015 04-01 (2015) 32 11-24 (2015) 32 236 2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215 2013 03-23 (2013) 32 11-12 (2013) 31 233 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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