November 2023

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be noticeably milder. Readings will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 60s. Friday will be another very mild day. However, a cold front will move across the region Friday night into Saturday bringing some showers. An offshore storm could bring a soaking rain to eastern New England.

The long-range guidance has shifted. It now shows cooler air overspreading the region near or during the Thanksgiving Day holiday. The colder conditions could last through the remainder of November. The shift in the guidance reaffirms the limitations of guidance beyond Week 2 and the reality that such outlooks are low-skill in nature.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around November 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.63°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño. That transition continues.

Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965.

The SOI was -15.53 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.092 today.

On November 14 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.666 (RMM). The November 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.628 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.5° (1.5° below normal).

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

14 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what result? a winter like 1997? perhaps, but favorable winters also had cold novembers. there's just as much of a chance that NYC sees 40-50" as 10" this year IMO

people weenied because of the obvious rage bait lmao

I remember years ago having to do a regression analysis for a statistics class in school.  I picked the topic "is there a correlation between snowfall in November and an overall snowy winter", hoping to find a direct relationship between the two.  I found no correlation, but didn't know if that's because there was really minimal to no relationship or because I was bad at statistics.  I'm still not sure but I'm encouraged by what you said above.

[MJO812]

All the models pointing to a colder pattern ahead. 

[bluewave]

Rainy and windy GL cutter next Tuesday into Wednesday will pull down colder air for late November with the first freeze in NYC likely.

[the_other_guy]

39F this morning to start this mild day

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

In the 80's nobody was plowing anything, at least in NYC.  But we did have cold.

The 80s were known for the big 3. Historic April 82 blizzard that still stands as our greatest late season blizzard. The famous February 83 snowstorm. Then the surprise January 87 snowstorm that was supposed to quickly change to rain but dropped near 10” on Long Island. You could also add the surprise December 88 Norlun that dropped around  10” on Long Island. But the snow band was so narrow that Western Suffolk had close to 12” and Long Beach got nothing. So it was too limited in coverage for me to add to my big 3 list. 

[Dark Star]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 80s were known for the big 3. Historic April 82 blizzard that still stands as our greatest late season blizzard. The famous February 83 snowstorm. Then the surprise January 87 snowstorm that was supposed to quickly change to rain but dropped near 10” on Long Island. You could also add the surprise December 88 Norlun that dropped around  10” on Long Island. But the snow band was so narrow that Western Suffolk had close to 12” and Long Beach got nothing. So it was too limited in coverage for me to add to my big 3 list. 

I vaguely yremember the April 82 Snowstorm.  What I remember most about it was filling in for George Cullen at CBS NY Weather.  I made an awful gaff for predicting a daytime temperature for the city of Chicago that Steve Deshler was not happy about.  However, I noticed the LFM picking up the snowstorm.  Irv Gikofsky laughed at my analysis.  

[coastalplainsnowman]

39 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I vaguely yremember the April 82 Snowstorm.  What I remember most about it was filling in for George Cullen at CBS NY Weather.  I made an awful gaff for predicting a daytime temperature for the city of Chicago that Steve Deshler was not happy about.  However, I noticed the LFM picking up the snowstorm.  Irv Gikofsky laughed at my analysis.  

Also, the bitter, *bitter* miss in 1989 - either February or March.  Almost the opposite of '83 in terms of expectation vs result.  Left for school expecting a heavy snow to start mid day.  Ended up with Not. A. Flake.  It was the type of storm which today would have caused schools and businesses to close premptively.  If memory serves, Atlantic City got 18" and Montauk got 12".  That one left me convinced that an '83-like storm was never ever going to happen again.  What a fitting way to end the 80s.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  47degs.(41/53) or Normal.

Reached 52 here yesterday.

Today: 61-64, wind w., m.  sunny, 50 tomorrow AM.

47*(69%RH) here at 6am.     55* at Noon.      62* at 2pm.    Reached 63* at 2:30pm.       57* at 7pm.

[MANDA]

59 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I vaguely yremember the April 82 Snowstorm.  What I remember most about it was filling in for George Cullen at CBS NY Weather.  I made an awful gaff for predicting a daytime temperature for the city of Chicago that Steve Deshler was not happy about.  However, I noticed the LFM picking up the snowstorm.  Irv Gikofsky laughed at my analysis.  

Remember that weather office well!  Small and rather cramped.  Was there (WCBS TV) late 83 to early 86.  Started on weekends working with Tom Chisholm and when Frank Field came over from NBC Irv was bumped to weekends and Tom was let go.  Tom was great.  George was a great and very funny guy.  Ran into him many times as I was leaving on Sunday nights and he was coming in.  Steve Baskerville was also quite humorous.   Also worked with John Coleman on occasion.  Nice guy but a bit of a loose cannon when it came to forecasting.  Tried to reel in in a few times but he wanted no part of it.  I was right every time but it went unspoken about.   Moving from the old office to the new one was a refreshing experience.  We got a WINDOW !  Many stories I could tell.

[SACRUS]

 

Down to 33 and now quickly to 48.  Today and Fri likely the warmest days (mid - upper 60s)for at least  weeks perhaps till next year.  Strong storm next week inland into the lakes Tue (11/21)- Wed (11/22) pushes a strong front down and chilly period 11/23 - 11/28.  Overall drier pattern may be winding down in time for the start of the cold season.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 74 (2005)
NYC: 72 (1928)
LGA: 72 (1990)

Lows:

EWR: 15 (1933)
NYC: 17 (1933)
LGA: 22 (1967)

 

Historical:

 

1958 - More than six inches of snow fell at Tucson, AZ. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1959 - The most severe November cold wave in U.S. history was in progress. A weather observing station located 14 miles northeast of Lincoln MT reported a reading of 53 degrees below zero, which established an all-time record low temperature for the nation for the month of November. Their high that day was one degree above zero. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - High winds and heavy snow created blizzard conditions across parts of eastern Colorado. Wind gusts reached 68 mph at Pueblo, and snowfall totals ranged up to 37 inches at Echo Lake. In Wyoming, the temperature dipped to 14 degrees below zero at Laramie. Strong thunderstorms in Louisiana drenched Alexandria with 16.65 inches of rain in thirty hours, with an unofficial total of 21.21 inches north of Olla. Flash flooding in Louisiana caused five to six million dollars damage. (15th-16th) (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A powerful low pressure system in the north central U.S. produced high winds across the Great Lakes Region, with wind gusts to 60 mph reported at Chicago IL. Heavy snow blanketed much of Minnesota, with eleven inches reported at International Falls. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Snow and gusty winds invaded the north central U.S. Winds gusting to 40 mph produced wind chill readings as cold as 25 degrees below zero, and blizzard conditions were reported in Nebraska during the late morning hours. High winds around a powerful low pressure system produced squalls in the Great Lakes Region. Winds gusted to 63 mph at Whitefish Point MI, and snowfall totals in Michigan ranged up to 19 inches at Hart, north of Muskegon. (15th-16th) (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1996: An area of low pressure brought 6 to 9 inches of snowfall to most of central and parts of north-central South Dakota on the 16th, while widespread freezing rain associated with the warm front of the system, along with 4 to 10 inches of snow, fell in northeast South Dakota. Travel was significantly affected, and a few minor accidents occurred during the storm. Several sporting events and activities were postponed or canceled. Strong north winds late on the 16th into early the 17th resulted in near-blizzard conditions across northeast South Dakota. Some storm total snowfall amounts include, 9.0 inches 12SSW of Harrold; 8.5 inches near Highmore; 8.2 inches in Roscoe; 8.0 in Eureka; 7.9 inches near Mellette; 7.0 inches in Waubay; 6.5 inches in Murdo and Redfield; 6.0 inches in Kennebec and Miller; 5.5 inches near Victor; and 5.3 inches in Sisseton.

2006 - An F-3 tornado strikes Riegelwood, NC causing eight deaths and twenty injuries

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Also, the bitter, *bitter* miss in 1989 - either February or March.  Almost the opposite of '83 in terms of expectation vs result.  Left for school expecting a heavy snow to start mid day.  Ended up with Not. A. Flake.  It was the type of storm which today would have caused schools and businesses to close premptively.  If memory serves, Atlantic City got 18" and Montauk got 12".  That one left me convinced that an '83-like storm was never ever going to happen again.  What a fitting way to end the 80s.

Who could forget!   I was living in Philly as a junior in HS-woke up to overcast but no snow....it was delayed they said...we all know what that means...

[MJO812]

Coldest Thanksgiving in years ?

[wishcast_hater]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Who could forget!   I was living in Philly as a junior in HS-woke up to overcast but no snow....it was delayed they said...we all know what that means...

I remember that day very well, I was standing on the steps of my school in the early morning waiting in anticipation for the big snow. I kept looking out the window all day and kept hearing that the snow will come but its taking a bit longer than expected due to the dry air. In the end just more disappointment, for the snowless 80's. Though i do remember storms starting out as snow and going to rain very frequently but my grandparents up in Ulster County always got buried.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, Dark Star said:

I vaguely yremember the April 82 Snowstorm.  What I remember most about it was filling in for George Cullen at CBS NY Weather.  I made an awful gaff for predicting a daytime temperature for the city of Chicago that Steve Deshler was not happy about.  However, I noticed the LFM picking up the snowstorm.  Irv Gikofsky laughed at my analysis.  

Yeah, the model graphics off of the old Alden Difax machines were primitive compared to what we have today. Plus the accuracy of those old models was so low that it was the era of nowcasting many big events. I can remember all the paper jams in those old machines. But the April 1982 blizzard still stands as one of my favorite snowstorms of all time. Starting as rain and then changing to blizzard conditions with some of the most lightning I have ever seen with snow. To have early April heavy snow stick on the pavement in the afternoon with no trouble after rain with highs only in the 20s was like something out of the 1800s.

[IrishRob17]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Coldest Thanksgiving in years ?

Thanksgiving 2018 I had a high of 26, so since then is possible but I don't see anything yet to equal or top that.

[Allsnow]

With 1-2 artic shots coming November will finish solidly below avg 

[MANDA]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the model graphics off of the old Alden Difax machines were primitive compared to what we have today. Plus the accuracy of those old models was so low that it was the era of nowcasting many big events. I can remember all the paper jams in those old machines. But the April 1982 blizzard still stands as one of my favorite snowstorms of all time. Starting as rain and then changing to blizzard conditions with some of the most lightning I have ever seen with snow. To have early April heavy snow stick on the pavement in the afternoon with no trouble after rain with highs only in the 20s was like something out of the 1800s.

Waiting for the paper to dry before doing an analysis!  Hitting refresh every 30 seconds waiting for the FOUS to arrive. 

Checking for the latest PREXTD discussion (WSI) when something was pending and hoping that Weinbrenner or Ships wrote it. 

[Snowlover11]

solid evidence on a pretty cold end to november. i’ve gotten below freeze a few times already, but maybe lows in low 20’s? now we just need some 

[Stormlover74]

Gorgeous 65

[winterwx21]

65 degrees here. What a day. I'm leaving shortly for bow hunting, and I'll do leaf cleanup tomorrow. Nice to get a couple warm days for these outdoor activities before we go into the cool pattern. 

As others are pointing out, the cold shot coming in for Thanksgiving is looking pretty impressive. We'll probably have some days with high temps in the low-mid 40s and low temps in the low-mid 20s. 

Still some nice foliage out there. Obviously we're past peak and a lot of trees are finished, but still some here and there that turned late and are filled with brilliant reds. I had to stop to take some picks on my way to hunting in Readington yesterday. But as Allsnow pointed out, next week should finish off the foliage season with the big rainstorm. 

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

solid evidence on a pretty cold end to november. i’ve gotten below freeze a few times already, but maybe lows in low 20’s? now we just need some 

We have actually have done  much better with snowfall from late October in to mid-November since 2010 than in late November.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 28 to Nov 20	Missing Count
2022-11-20	0.0	0
2021-11-20	T	0
2020-11-20	0.0	0
2019-11-20	0.0	0
2018-11-20	6.4	0
2017-11-20	T	0
2016-11-20	T	0
2015-11-20	0.0	0
2014-11-20	T	0
2013-11-20	T	0
2012-11-20	4.7	0
2011-11-20	2.9	0
2010-11-20	T	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Nov 21 to Nov 30	Missing Count
2022-11-30	0.0	0
2021-11-30	T	0
2020-11-30	0.0	0
2019-11-30	0.0	0
2018-11-30	T	0
2017-11-30	0.0	0
2016-11-30	0.0	0
2015-11-30	0.0	0
2014-11-30	0.2	0
2013-11-30	T	0
2012-11-30	T	0
2011-11-30	0.0	0
2010-11-30	0.0	0

[the_other_guy]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 80s were known for the big 3. Historic April 82 blizzard that still stands as our greatest late season blizzard. The famous February 83 snowstorm. Then the surprise January 87 snowstorm that was supposed to quickly change to rain but dropped near 10” on Long Island. You could also add the surprise December 88 Norlun that dropped around  10” on Long Island. But the snow band was so narrow that Western Suffolk had close to 12” and Long Beach got nothing. So it was too limited in coverage for me to add to my big 3 list. 

I was in nursery school in 1987. They closed the school in the middle of the day and my father had to come get me. It was the first time I remember getting stuck in the snow in a car. I remember my father telling me we have a foot of snow on the ground. I couldnt believe it. I still remember the awe that I felt looking at all that snow and the fear of the car getting stuck 35 years later.  

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I was in nursery school in 1987. They closed the school in the middle of the day and my father had to come get me. It was the first time I remember getting stuck in the snow in a car. I remember my father telling me we have a foot of snow on the ground. I couldnt believe it. I still remember the awe that I felt looking at all that snow and the fear of the car getting stuck 35 years later.  

I remember that day very well. The forecast was for snow to quickly change to rain. Got on the Meadowbrook Parkway around 1pm near Garden City with heavy thundersnow. The traffic backup was so bad that I had to take Merrick Ave south instead. Then had to stop every few minutes to clean the windshield off by hand since the wipers couldn’t keep up. Had Craig Allen on the AM radio the whole time for updates. They had to get him on the air earlier than usual due to the surprise nature of the storm. What was usually a 30 minute drive for me took 4 hours to get back to Long Beach with around 10”.

[BucksCO_PA]

One of those rare events in which the MA is all snow & Boston changes to rain. Locally just north of Philly 12" with that storm & 18" with the subsequent late FEB event. Both events were big dumps within relatively short timeframes and the JAN event was accompanied by thunder. 

Over 3" of snow all the down to ATL.

[Gravity Wave]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 80s were known for the big 3. Historic April 82 blizzard that still stands as our greatest late season blizzard. The famous February 83 snowstorm. Then the surprise January 87 snowstorm that was supposed to quickly change to rain but dropped near 10” on Long Island. You could also add the surprise December 88 Norlun that dropped around  10” on Long Island. But the snow band was so narrow that Western Suffolk had close to 12” and Long Beach got nothing. So it was too limited in coverage for me to add to my big 3 list. 

Growing up in Allentown the neighbors who had been around for a while would talk about February 1983 before 1996 even though the latter ended up as a slightly bigger storm in terms of accumulations (30" vs 25"). I think it was the intensity that made such an impression, 1996 was 36 hours of steady snow while 83 came in like a wall and dropped 5" in an hour at one point.

[SACRUS]

Upto 68, perhaps stray 70 today and low 70s tomorrow in the sunnoer/warmer spots

[FPizz]

27 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

One of those rare events in which the MA is all snow & Boston changes to rain. Locally just north of Philly 12" with that storm & 18" with the subsequent late FEB event. Both events were big dumps within relatively short timeframes and the JAN event was accompanied by thunder. 

Over 3" of snow all the down to ATL.

This one was the one that made me love snow.  12" of snow in CNJ as a 9 year old seemed like a ton.  

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Growing up in Allentown the neighbors who had been around for a while would talk about February 1983 before 1996 even though the latter ended up as a slightly bigger storm in terms of accumulations (30" vs 25"). I think it was the intensity that made such an impression, 1996 was 36 hours of steady snow while 83 came in like a wall and dropped 5" in an hour at one point.

Yeah, that was the heaviest single snowstorm of the 1980s. I can remember looking out the window of the LB High school just after noon and wondering why it was taking so long to start. But when I looked out a few minutes later it went from nothing to very heavy snow in about 10 minutes. It wasn’t until January 1996 that we had a snowstorm that was able to surpass it.