November 2023

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Simple. I have tropical plants on campus on the uws that are still thriving. The urban heat island has been killing marginal events for years, and it’s only getting worse. If you took a campus tour right now and you had no idea what time of year it was I could convince you it was early October.

Oh I 100% agree with the UHI, but what I am pushing back on are the number of people saying it is going to be a carbon copy of last year. That type of year is just as hard to have as a winter with 50+ inches in Manhattan. They will, sadly, become more common, but I still think this one will wind up much closer to average for snowfall. Still thinking it will be just below average with more marginal events, but I do think Vermont, the Catskills, Adirondacks, etc do well this year. 

[lee59]

With early sunset, temperatures drop fast early evening. Already down to 40 here after a high of 48.

[psv88]

Beautiful 72 in Vegas. Great day to be pool side at the Bellagio 

[North and West]

I don't get this doom and gloom. Maybe it is because I'm much further north, but November has been great up here. We were down to the low 20s and nothing but a few days scream really warm. Even a degree warmer or so over average can and does produce around here. I don't think we are looking at another snowless winter. It is very difficult to put up winters with less that 10 inches of snow across most of the subforum, just like it is very difficult to produce winters with 50+ inches across the whole subforum. Calm down. It is November 13th, and it was beautiful and COLD this morning. 

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[donsutherland1]

After a frosty start, readings should become slightly milder tomorrow. The warmup will likely peak Thursday and Friday. Dry conditions could continue until late in the week before showers or periods of rain could move into the region Friday night into Saturday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño. That transition continues.

Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965.

The SOI was -32.77 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.764 today.

On November 11 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.755 (RMM). The November 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.696 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (0.8° below normal).

 

[jm1220]

Dropping quickly here, down to 34 already. 

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Dropping quickly here, down to 34 already. 

49 here

[Eduardo]

4 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

don’t write off this December. This is not a typical Nino yet. Adjusted for climate change over the last 30 years, This fall has been pretty cool. No typical nino warmth. None in sight…yet.

 

Sept AN by a decimal. Oct AN by 2 and change. Nov so far Normal. I wouldnt bet on a +5 for Dec. Lets see

 

I wouldn’t either.  Probably closer to +1 to +3 tops.  Not impossible to snow, but a steeper uphill battle for the City and coast.

3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Oh I 100% agree with the UHI, but what I am pushing back on are the number of people saying it is going to be a carbon copy of last year. That type of year is just as hard to have as a winter with 50+ inches in Manhattan. They will, sadly, become more common, but I still think this one will wind up much closer to average for snowfall. Still thinking it will be just below average with more marginal events, but I do think Vermont, the Catskills, Adirondacks, etc do well this year. 

I think so too, although that won’t take much, given how the City came in with record low snowfall last year.  In terms of snowfall, I don’t think it’ll be a “carbon copy.”  But I have a hard time believing that we break the humdrum hemispheric pattern we’ve seen these past two years.

Again, I cannot emphasize enough how thrilled I’d be to be dead wrong on all of this.  Been aching for some real wintertime fun for too long now (esp a good ol fashioned holiday season snowstorm). 

[SRRTA22]

Yeah I've had 3 freezes so far this November. It's def a change from what we've seen 

[coastalplainsnowman]

51 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I wouldn’t either.  Probably closer to +1 to +3 tops.  Not impossible to snow, but a steeper uphill battle for the City and coast.

I think so too, although that won’t take much, given how the City came in with record low snowfall last year.  In terms of snowfall, I don’t think it’ll be a “carbon copy.”  But I have a hard time believing that we break the humdrum hemispheric pattern we’ve seen these past two years.

Again, I cannot emphasize enough how thrilled I’d be to be dead wrong on all of this.  Been aching for some real wintertime fun for too long now (esp a good ol fashioned holiday season snowstorm). 

I don't think it will be a carbon copy of last year, only because that would be the first time in recorded history.

For those raising the point that it's been much warmer lately,  let's say we have a  1980s Baltimore / DC climate now.  They still average between 16-20 inches of snow a year.  That's still a few decent storms.  What'd we get, 3-5" total along the coast last year?  Raleigh, NC averages 5.2" a year.  Are we in a Raleigh, NC climate?  No. 

For those reasons I chalk last year up to being an anomaly which will not repeat this year.  I hope this ages well.

[coastalplainsnowman]

5 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

don’t write off this December. This is not a typical Nino yet. Adjusted for climate change over the last 30 years, This fall has been pretty cool. No typical nino warmth. None in sight…yet.

 

Sept AN by a decimal. Oct AN by 2 and change. Nov so far Normal. I wouldnt bet on a +5 for Dec. Lets see

 

Let's hope for a break from the trend of having one out of place, spirit destroying, hideous, 55+ degree day in the week leading up to Christmas, as we've seen in the majority of Decembers the past dozen years.

[lee59]

Another night where the suburbs are some 10-15 degrees colder than the city.

[North and West]

Let's hope for a break from the trend of having one out of place, spirit destroying, hideous, 55+ degree day in the week leading up to Christmas, as we've seen in the majority of Decembers the past dozen years.

Going off of gut feeling, it feels like Thanksgiving has been generally colder than Christmas recently, last year notwithstanding.


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[the_other_guy]

11 minutes ago, North and West said:

Going off of gut feeling, it feels like Thanksgiving has been generally colder than Christmas recently, last year notwithstanding.


.

and the problem with trying to quantify that : there is no statistical reasoning why it’s happening. That’s why it’s hard to actually put that fact into a bullet point. the fact is that for the last several years, there seems to be a warm-up just before Christmas with little scientific reason for it. 

 

I would say the most concerning thing I see going into the winter is that these cold shots seem to be very transient in nature again. I was 36° when I went to bed and the warm air moved in and it’s already up to 39 and there was no warm front. Just an aggressive movement of warm air to push out short-term cold air which we’ve been seeing over the last few years.

also, concerning is the city just doesn’t seem to get cold anymore. I jumped 10° the minute I crossed into the Bronx. that’s very concerning and it’s almost like an urban heat island on steroids

[Allsnow]

Another night and another freeze…been several this month now 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Another night and another freeze…been several this month now 

Congrats

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

and the problem with trying to quantify that : there is no statistical reasoning why it’s happening. That’s why it’s hard to actually put that fact into a bullet point. the fact that for the last several years, there seems to be a warm-up just before Christmas with little scientific reason for it. 

 

I would say the most concerning thing I see going into the winter is that these cold shots seem to be very transient in nature again. I was 36° when I went to bed and the warm air moved in and it’s already up to 39 and there was no warm front. Just an aggressive movement of warm air to push out short-term cold air which we’ve been seeing over the last few years.

also, concerning is the city just doesn’t seem to get cold anymore. I jumped 10° the minute I crossed into the Bronx that’s very concerning and it’s almost like an urban heat island on steroids

All we can say is the warm up around the solstice is a feature of our new climate. The rate of warming since 1981 in late December has been increasing a a significantly faster rate than early December. So our average near 40° is similar to the average in early December 40 years ago. So going over 55 during this period from a week before to around Christmas is the new normal.

 

 

[dmillz25]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Congrats

Yup lowest Ive seen was 34 yesterday got down to 35 here

[Allsnow]

Looks like this month has a good shot of finishing below avg with this week’s potential torch getting muted 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like this month has a good shot of finishing below avg with this week’s potential torch getting muted 

and then a nice +PNA/-EPO pattern showing up around Thanksgiving. could definitely see some potential for snowfall with this setup

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

and then a nice +PNA/-EPO pattern showing up around Thanksgiving. could definitely see some potential for snowfall with this setup

Hopefully the pac cooperates or it might dump into the west. Ens have been back and fourth on that idea 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like this month has a good shot of finishing below avg with this week’s potential torch getting muted 

Yeah, looks like our typical post 2010 fall around the region. Endless summer into September or October followed by colder departures in November. This has become very predictable. 




 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  47degs.(41/53) or Normal.

Snow fun reaches us the 26th>

Reached 50 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today: 51-53, wind w. ton., decreasing clouds, 38 tomorrow AM.

47*(60%RH) here at 6am.   Reached 53* at 3pm.

[bluewave]

Hopefully, the cold front clears the area and we get a dry Thanksgiving for travel. The EPS may be holding too much energy back to the SW. The GEFS and GEPS have rain on Wednesday but clearing out and cooler for Thanksgiving. Looks like a brief warm up ahead of the cold front. 

 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

and then a nice +PNA/-EPO pattern showing up around Thanksgiving. could definitely see some potential for snowfall with this setup

06z GFS is showing something at that time. Subject to change of course. We’ll see.

 

[brooklynwx99]

there have been some posts on next week's potentially exciting pattern, so I thought I'd share some more coherent thoughts... the main driver for this change in the pattern from -PNA/+EPO to +PNA/-EPO will be an anomalously strong +EAMT (east Asian mountain torque) that will develop over the next couple of days. HP is around 3-4 sigma above normal here

the way EAMT works is that since the pressure gradient force is pointed to the west (wind blows from HP to LP), the Pacific jet must extend in order to conserve the total momentum. we see this Pacific jet extension here:

the Pacific jet extension then forces a strong Aleutian / GoA LP (yay El Nino) that leads to an anomalous -EPO that is also timed up with a +PNA! no more -EPO/-PNA crap from last year, it seems. these patterns are very efficient at driving Arctic air into the CONUS, especially the Plains eastward. given split flow and the displacement of the TPV into SE Canada, there is certainly an increased risk at seeing wintry weather, even south of the M-D line. either way, there is a reason for this pattern to develop... I don't think it's model fantasy BS

[North and West]

All we can say is the warm up around the solstice is a feature of our new climate. The rate of warming since 1981 in late December has been increasing a a significantly faster rate than early December. So our average near 40° is similar to the average in early December 40 years ago. So going over 55 during this period from a week before to around Christmas is the new normal.

 


 

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[North and West]

there have been some posts on next week's potentially exciting pattern, so I thought I'd share some more coherent thoughts... the main driver for this change in the pattern from -PNA/+EPO to +PNA/-EPO will be an anomalously strong +EAMT (east Asian mountain torque) that will develop over the next couple of days. HP is around 3-4 sigma above normal here

the way EAMT works is that since the pressure gradient force is pointed to the west (wind blows from HP to LP), the Pacific jet must extend in order to conserve the total momentum. we see this Pacific jet extension here:

the Pacific jet extension then forces a strong Aleutian / GoA LP (yay El Nino) that leads to an anomalous -EPO that is also timed up with a +PNA! no more -EPO/-PNA crap from last year, it seems. these patterns are very efficient at driving Arctic air into the CONUS, especially the Plains eastward. given split flow and the displacement of the TPV into SE Canada, there is certainly an increased risk at seeing wintry weather, even south of the M-D line. either way, there is a reason for this pattern to develop... I don't think it's model fantasy BS

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[Eduardo]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there have been some posts on next week's potentially exciting pattern, so I thought I'd share some more coherent thoughts... the main driver for this change in the pattern from -PNA/+EPO to +PNA/-EPO will be an anomalously strong +EAMT (east Asian mountain torque) that will develop over the next couple of days. HP is around 3-4 sigma above normal here

the way EAMT works is that since the pressure gradient force is pointed to the west (wind blows from HP to LP), the Pacific jet must extend in order to conserve the total momentum. we see this Pacific jet extension here:

the Pacific jet extension then forces a strong Aleutian / GoA LP (yay El Nino) that leads to an anomalous -EPO that is also timed up with a +PNA! no more -EPO/-PNA crap from last year, it seems. these patterns are very efficient at driving Arctic air into the CONUS, especially the Plains eastward. given split flow and the displacement of the TPV into SE Canada, there is certainly an increased risk at seeing wintry weather, even south of the M-D line. either way, there is a reason for this pattern to develop... I don't think it's model fantasy BS

Excellent post!!  I love it!  Maybe I’m just a battered weenie, but I have a hard time believing after these last few winters that the models aren’t just playing tricks on us.  They’ve not done too well in that they’ve consistently forecasted cold in the medium and long range that didn’t pan out.  Here is to hoping this year is different!  

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there is certainly an increased risk at seeing wintry weather, even south of the M-D line. either way, there is a reason for this pattern to develop... I don't think it's model fantasy BS

We’ll probably need the northern stream to relax otherwise any southern stream systems coming after Thanksgiving run the risk of suppression like we are seeing in the forecasts for this weekend. Looks like plenty of Canadian high  pressure dominating after Thanksgiving with the -EPO+PNA.