November 2023

[SACRUS]

 

Down to 30 upto 45 and clear/clouds hugging SNJ.  Dry but cool next 3 days before warming 11/15 - 11/19. Latest guidance has a trough come in quick but with a potential cold 48 hours 11/20 - 11/22 befor3 moderating back by 11/23 - looks to get more active towards thanksgiving with trough into the GL.

 

 

[wdrag]

Where's the chill? Coming south, I do not southeast in the surface-boundary layer. 

Added 845AM pressure rises and dew point changes.  Canadian and ECMWF 2m temps look too cold in the urban centers Sunday and Monday mornings and have lost a little faith in prospects for nudging 32F in NYC.  Best chance is a north wind in this situation, not northwest. 

Probably wouldn't give up on Wednesday morning but MOS (USA model statistics for similar patterns) should not have a 5-8 deg warm bias error Sunday-Wednesday.

I view this as learning the various model handling of fcst 2m temps without precip.  NAM/GFS 2m probably more accurate than the RGEM/EC (understanding the EC that we see probably doesn't handle the urban centers very well).

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 75 (1949)
NYC: 74 (1949)
LGA: 74 (1949)

Lows:

EWR: 24 (2017)
NYC: 24 (2017)
LGA: 26 (2017)

Historical:

 

1911 - The central U.S. experienced perhaps its most dramatic cold wave of record. During the early morning temperatures across the Central Plains ranged from 68 degrees at Kansas City to 4 above North Platte NE. In Kansas City, the temperature warmed to a record 76 degrees by late morning before the arctic front moved in from the northwest. Skies become overcast, winds shifted to the northwest, and the mercury began to plummet. By early afternoon it was cold enough to snow, and by midnight the temperature had dipped to a record cold reading of 11 degrees above zero. Oklahoma City also established a record high of 83 degrees and record low of 17 degrees that same day. In southeastern Kansas, the temperature at Independence plunged from 83 degrees to 33 degrees in just one hour. The arctic cold front produced severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the Mississippi Valley, a blizzard in the Ohio Va

1940 - An Armistice Day storm raged across the Great Lakes Region and the Upper Midwest. A blizzard left 49 dead in Minnesota, and gales on Lake Michigan caused ship wrecks resulting in another 59 deaths. Up to seventeen inches of snow fell in Iowa, and at Duluth MN the barometric pressure reached 28.66 inches. The blizzard claimed a total of 154 lives, and killed thousands of cattle in Iowa. Whole towns were isolated by huge snowdrifts. (David Ludlum)

1955 - An early arctic outbreak set many November temperature records across Oregon and Washington. The severe cold damaged shrubs and fruit trees. Readings plunged to near zero in western Washington, and dipped to 19 degrees below zero in the eastern part of the state. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A deepening low pressure system brought heavy snow to the east central U.S. The Veteran's Day storm produced up to 17 inches of snow in the Washington D.C. area snarling traffic and closing schools and airports. Afternoon thunderstorms produced five inches of snow in three hours. Gale force winds lashed the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast. Norfolk VA reported their earliest measurable snow in 99 years of records. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Low pressure brought snow to parts of the Rocky Mountain Region. Totals in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado ranged up to 10 inches at Summitville. Evening thunderstorms produced large hail in central Oklahoma and north central Texas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Veteran's Day was an unseasonably warm one across much of the nation east of the Rockies. Temperatures warmed into the 70s and 80s from the Southern and Central Plains to the southern half of the Atlantic coast. Thirty-four cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Saint Louis MO with a reading of 85 degrees. Calico AR and Gilbert AR reported record highs of 87 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

[MANDA]

Cold morning with frost.  Low of 32.  Nice weather but I'd rather watch oil based paint dry.  Boring pattern continues.

[snywx]

Currently 46/29 here. Nice mid fall day up this way.  

[nycwinter]

53 in the city a little warmer then what was predicted

[bluewave]

The NAM and the GFS are the only 2 models which seem to be able to resolve the NYC heat island. So these models keep the low above freezing in NYC next few mornings. The Euro, GEM, and HRRR don’t show  the heat island and go below freezing. So not sure why the other models can’t see what the GFS and NAM do. At least the NWS NDFD corrects for this.

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Suburbs should radiate nicely tomorrow night. I'm thinking widespread low to mid 20s. 

[SACRUS]

Made it up to 58 before becoming mostly cloudy again

 

[lee59]

You want snow, Anchorage has plenty. As of Thursday 21 inches on the ground.

[Allsnow]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The NAM and the GFS are the only 2 models which seem to be able to resolve the NYC heat island. So these models keep the low above freezing in NYC next few mornings. The Euro, GEM, and HRRR don’t show  the heat island and go below freezing. So not sure why the other models can’t see what the GFS and NAM do. At least the NWS NDFD corrects for this.

 

 

Nyc might have a chance but not lga or JFK 

[TriPol]

Any chance the volcano in iceland impacts our weather? 

[donsutherland1]

Some late autumn photos from Turkey Mountain Nature Preserve (Yorktown Heights, New York). Temperatures were around 50F.

 

[donsutherland1]

A reinforcing shot of cold air is overspreading the region. That will likely be the coldest air mass so far this season, but the cold will be short-lived. Central Park will likely remain several degrees above freezing. During 1961-1990, Central Park's mean first freeze fell on November 11. Under the latest 1991-2020 base period, its first freeze typically occurs on November 20.

A warmup will commence early next week. Dry conditions could continue until late in the week before showers could move into the region.

The long-range guidance suggests that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal with the possibility of some shorter cool shots. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño. That transition continues.

Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965.

The SOI was -20.62 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.140 today.

On November 7 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.924 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.385 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.8° (0.2° below normal).

 

[North and West]

Some late autumn photos from Turkey Mountain Nature Preserve (Yorktown Heights, New York). Temperatures were around 50F.



 

These are nice!


.

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Nyc might have a chance but not lga or JFK 

I would think Jfk has a better chance than LaGuardia or Central Park.

 

Jfk does well on radiating nights. LGA is worst effected by UHI

 

Either way, if this happens, it may be the first time that I remember everybody in the area has gone below freezing, some of us several times, and New York City still has not

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, TriPol said:

Any chance the volcano in iceland impacts our weather? 

wrong type of volcano

[bluewave]

Great job by GFS and NAM as everyone near NYC stayed above freezing.

Nov 12 low temperatures 

EWR…34

NYC….36

LGA….37

JFK….35

HPN…32

FRG….33

ISP……30

HVN….28

TEB….31

 

[MJO812]

38 here

[MANDA]

27 here.

[ForestHillWx]

27 here 

[SnoSki14]

I saw lots of low to mid 20s in NJ. Got down to about 29F near New Brunswick. 

Tonight should be ideal for several degrees lower. The dry weather will also help.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  48degs.(42/54) or Normal.

Reached 54 here yesterday at 4pm.

Today: 44-48, wind n., m. sunny, 35 tomorrow AM.

41*(54%RH) here at 6am.     Reached 48* at 4pm.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Great job by GFS and NAM as everyone near NYC stayed above freezing.

Nov 12 low temperatures 

EWR…34

NYC….36

LGA….37

JFK….35

HPN…32

FRG….33

ISP……30

HVN….28

TEB….31

 

Urban heat island growing 

 

 

[lee59]

33 my low.

[SACRUS]

 

29 to 41 now. Partly cloudy 50s today chilly evening/overnight. Dry and moderating this week. Overall warmer than normal 11/15 - 11/19.  Some rain chances perhaps to break the 2 1/2 dry weekend trend next week. Perhaps next storms early - mid next week ahead of Thanksgiving with a forecasted 48 chill 11/23 - 11/24 then warmer again.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 74 (2022) - year ago record warm spell
NYC: 76 (1879)
LGA: 69 (2022)

Lows:

EWR: 25 (2019)
NYC: 25 (2019)
LGA: 27 (2019)

 

Historical:

 

1906 - The mercury soared to 106 degrees at Craftonville, CA, a November record for the U.S. (The Weather Channel)

1959 - Between Noon on the 11th and Noon on the 12th, a winter storm buried Helena, MT, under 21.5 inches of snow, which surpassed their previous 24 hour record by seven inches. (The Weather Channel)

1968 - A severe coastal storm produced high winds and record early snows from Georgia to Maine. Winds reached 90 mph in Massachusetts, and ten inches of snow blanketed interior Maine. (David Ludlum)

1974 - A great Alaska storm in the Bering Sea caused the worst coastal flooding of memory at Nome AK with a tide of 13.2 feet. The flooding caused 12 million dollars damage, however no lives are lost. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Heavy snow spread across much of New England. Totals in Massachusetts ranged up to 14 inches in Plymouth County. The seven inch total at the Logan Airport in Boston was their highest of record for so early in the season, and the 9.7 inch total at Providence RI was a record for November. Roads were clogged with traffic and made impassable as snowplow operators were caught unprepared for the early season snowstorm. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Bovina MS. Morning thunderstorms drenched Atlanta TX with more than four inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thirty-three cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 70s and 80s from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast Region. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Scottsbluff NE was a record for November, and highs of 76 degrees at Rapid City SD and 81 degrees at Chattanooga TN were the warmest of record for so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2003 - Thunderstorms developed in southern California and produced torrential downpours across parts of the Los Angeles area. More than 5 inches of rain fell in just 2 hours in southern Los Angeles, producing severe urban flooding. Small hail also accompanied the storms, accumulating several inches deep in some areas of the city. Nearly 115,000 electrical customers lost power as the storms affected the area (Associated Press).

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Urban heat island growing 

 

 

The urban heat island is not growing in New York City area at all. within New York City it certainly growing. due to restrictive development policies, It’s not growing in Nassau or Westchester at all.

 

down to 33 this morning as predicted. looking for upper 20s tonight. we shall see

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The urban heat island is not growing in New York City area at all. within New York City it certainly growing. due to restrictive development policies, It’s not growing in Nassau or Westchester at all.

 

down to 33 this morning as predicted. looking for upper 20s tonight. we shall see

The heat islands both around NYC and Philly have been fairly stable since the 1980s. Just look at the US migration trends. People leaving the big cities of the Northeast and heading south to the sunbelt. Places like Phoenix and Las Vegas have seen the greatest UHI growth in recent years.

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The heat islands both around NYC and Philly have been fairly stable since the 1980s. Just look at the US migration trends. People leaving the big cities of the Northeast and heading south to the sunbelt. Places like Phoenix and Las Vegas have seen the greatest UHI growth in recent years.

in theory, they should be growing, but due to restrictive development policies of the ring counties, they have some of the lowest development rates in the nation. As you said, most of that has shifted south.