November 2023

[lee59]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Hurrican season ending soon.  NOAA increased their original forecast for the number of storms based on the water temperature.  I wonder what the latest tally is vs. the number of storms predicted?

Water temps has something to do with the number of storms and so does the fact they are much more liberal in what they name as storms.

[bluewave]

Just enough sun to make it to 60°.

 

Newark Liberty PTSUNNY   60  46  59 VRB6  

[Allsnow]

59 and stayed in the clouds all day 

[Brian5671]

low 50's here-clouds did break around 2:30pm

[Stormlover74]

Finally something showing up on the gfs. Storm next Friday 

Euro has it as well

[qg_omega]

14 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.8° (0.2° below normal).

Time will tell but I have a hard time seeing how November doesn’t finish at least 1 degree above normal if not more

[donsutherland1]

Cooler air will begin to advance into the region tomorrow. A reinformcing shot of cold air will arrive Saturday night or Sunday. That will likely be the coldest air mass so far this season, but the cold will be short-lived.

A warmup will commence early next week. The long-range guidance is continuing to move into consensus that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway.

The SOI was -12.03 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.020 today.

On November 6 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.385 (RMM). The November 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.041 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.8° (0.2° below normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Personally, I think it will wind up on the warmer side of normal. The GFS still tends to cool things down around 240 hours. I suspect the warmer look on the GEFS and EPS is more likely to verify.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  48degs.(43/53) or Normal.

Reached 60 here yesterday at 4pm.

Today:  53-55 early, wind w., decreasing clouds late, 44 tomorrow AM.

55*(59%RH) here at 6am.    53* at 4pm.

 

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Won’t happen until December if they fail late this weekend 

Yeah, we’ll see if this is one of the few years that NYC can avoid a first freeze until December.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
1998	03-23 (1998)	32	12-22 (1998)	22	273
2001	03-28 (2001)	30	12-16 (2001)	32	262
1948	04-04 (1948)	32	12-11 (1948)	31	250
2011	03-29 (2011)	31	12-10 (2011)	32	255
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	12-09 (2016)	29	242
2009	03-24 (2009)	27	12-07 (2009)	32	257
1902	03-20 (1902)	31	12-05 (1902)	24	259
2010	03-27 (2010)	29	12-04 (2010)	32	251
2006	03-22 (2006)	31	12-04 (2006)	31	256
1907	04-03 (1907)	32	12-03 (1907)	30	243
1985	04-10 (1985)	28	12-02 (1985)	30	235
1963	03-23 (1963)	30	12-01 (1963)	29	252

[SnoSki14]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Personally, I think it will wind up on the warmer side of normal. The GFS still tends to cool things down around 240 hours. I suspect the warmer look on the GEFS and EPS is more likely to verify.

I think we'll see some 70s in the Nov 16-22 period 

[SACRUS]

50 / 37 and cloudy dry but cooler (overall) period 11/11 - 11/14. More frosts / freezes not sure about metro citites. Warmer overall 11/15 - 11/25 (at least) with some chance for 60s /perhaps 70 in 11/17-18 period.  But suspect we get some rain /systems in between.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Lots of records lows/highs in the last 6 years this time of Nov
Highs:

EWR: 76 (2020)
NYC: 74 (2020)
LGA: 75 (2020)

Lows:

EWR: 25 (2017)
NYC: 24 (2017)
LGA: 27 (2017)

Historical:

1915 - An unusually late season tornado struck the central Kansas town of Great Bend killing eleven persons along its 35 mile track. The tornado destroyed 160 homes in Great Bend killing 11 persons and causing a million dollars damage. Hundreds of dead ducks dropped from the sky northeast of the track's end. (The Weather Channel)

1975 - Another freshwater fury hit the Great Lakes. A large ore carrier on Lake Superior, the Edmund Fitzgerald, sank near Crisp Point with the loss of its crew of 29 men. Eastern Upper Michigan and coastal Lower Michigan were hardest hit by the storm, which produced wind gusts to 71 at Sault Ste Marie MI, and gusts to 78 mph at Grand Rapids MI. Severe land and road erosion occurred along the Lake Michigan shoreline. A popular hit song by Gordon Lightfoot was inspired by the storm. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A cold front brought snow to the Appalachian Region and freezing temperatures to the central U.S. Up to nine inches of snow blanketed Garrett County of extreme western Maryland. Freezing temperatures were reported as far south as El Paso TX and San Angelo TX. Gale force winds lashed the Middle Atlantic Coast and the coast of southern New England. Thunderstorms brought fire quenching rains to Alabama, and produced large hail and damaging winds to eastern North Carolina. Ahead of the cold front, seven cities in Florida and Georgia reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 80s. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Strong winds circulating around a deep low pressure system in southeastern Ontario buffeted the northeastern U.S., with the Lower Great Lakes Region hardest hit. Winds in western New York State gusted to 68 mph at Buffalo, to 69 mph at Niagra Falls, and to 78 mph at Brockport. Four persons were injured at Rome NY when a tree was blown onto their car. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong southwesterly winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the Rockies in Montana and Wyoming. Winds of 80 to 90 mph prevailed across the northwest chinook zone of Montana, with gusts to 112 mph. Unseasonably warm weather accompanied the high winds. Shortly after midnight the temperature at Kalispell, MT, reached a record 59 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Windy and wet weather prevailed across Washington State. Strong southerly winds gusted to 70 mph at Rattlesnake Ridge, near Hanford. Six rivers in western Washington State rose above flood stage between the 9th and the 11th of the month, following eight days of moderate to heavy rain. Rainfall over the western slopes of the Cascade Mountains between the 3rd and the 10th ranged from 14 to 24 inches. High freezing levels also caused the early snowpack to melt, adding to the runoff in the rain-swollen rivers. Damage was heaviest in Whatcom County, where the Nooksack River caused nearly six million dollars damage, mostly to roads and bridges. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2002 - Severe thunderstorms developed ahead of a strong cold front and produced a widespread outbreak of severe weather including many tornadoes. The worst tornado damage was concentrated in Ohio, Tennessee and Alabama. A tornado rated as F-4 on the Fujita Scale struck Van Wert county in Ohio. In Tennessee, the community of Mossy Grove was nearly destroyed by a mile-wide tornado that claimed 12 lives (ENS). A major outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes occurred across the U.S. Tennessee and Ohio valley region on November 10-11, 2002, producing damage in 13 states. A total of 75 tornadoes touched down on Sunday 10th, resulting in at least 36 deaths (ENS).

 

[Allsnow]

49 cloudy with some rain drops….feels like your typical late November day 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

49 cloudy with some rain drops….feels like your typical late November day 

yep-that low overcast that the sun can no longer burn off.   Boring stretch coming up...average temps give or take and no storms

[lee59]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we’ll see if this is one of the few years that NYC can avoid a first freeze until December.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
1998	03-23 (1998)	32	12-22 (1998)	22	273
2001	03-28 (2001)	30	12-16 (2001)	32	262
1948	04-04 (1948)	32	12-11 (1948)	31	250
2011	03-29 (2011)	31	12-10 (2011)	32	255
2016	04-10 (2016)	31	12-09 (2016)	29	242
2009	03-24 (2009)	27	12-07 (2009)	32	257
1902	03-20 (1902)	31	12-05 (1902)	24	259
2010	03-27 (2010)	29	12-04 (2010)	32	251
2006	03-22 (2006)	31	12-04 (2006)	31	256
1907	04-03 (1907)	32	12-03 (1907)	30	243
1985	04-10 (1985)	28	12-02 (1985)	30	235
1963	03-23 (1963)	30	12-01 (1963)	29	252

With the UHI so strong in NYC, it seems they sometimes get their first snow before or around the same time as the first freeze.

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

With the UHI so strong in NYC, it seems they sometimes get their first snow before or around the same time as the first freeze.

The CAA has been very weak this fall.  So the stronger radiational cooling days just affected  the suburbs. NYC needs the winds to stay up in order to transport the colder air in from the NW. 

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The CAA has been very weak this fall.  So the stronger radiational cooling days just affected  the suburbs. NYC needs the winds to stay up in order to transport the colder air in from the NW. 

That is true-we have not had a strong windy W or NW wind this fall at all.

[MJO812]

Cmc has the city below freezing Monday morning 

[Allsnow]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc has the city below freezing Monday morning 

ICON still in the mid 30’s 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, lee59 said:

With the UHI so strong in NYC, it seems they sometimes get their first snow before or around the same time as the first freeze.

Yeah, my tropical plants on the uws are still going strong. I’m debating potting some that I over winter inside for the potential Sunday night. 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc has the city below freezing Monday morning 

Euro as well

[MJO812]

Gefs and geps are starting to show a colder pattern near Thanksgiving. 

[Allsnow]

Warmup for the end of next week looking kind of muted now from what was advertised last week.

[donsutherland1]

Cooler air will begin to advance into the region tomorrow. A reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive Saturday night or Sunday. That will likely be the coldest air mass so far this season, but the cold will be short-lived.

A warmup will commence early next week. The long-range guidance is continuing to move into consensus that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño. That transition continues.

Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965.

The SOI was -11.96 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.133 today.

On November 6 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.385 (RMM). The November 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.041 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.9° (0.1° below normal).

 

[TriPol]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs and geps are starting to show a colder pattern near Thanksgiving. 

Hopefully not a windy one. Don't want anything to happen to the parade. 

[RedSky]

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Warmup for the end of next week looking kind of muted now from what was advertised last week.

No worries it will change again, again and again

[TriPol]

Sold!

[North and West]

Sold!

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  49degs.(44/55) or +1.

Snow sneaks in near end of run for our area:

Reached 54 here yesterday.

Today:  52-55, wind nw., few clouds, 37 tomorrow AM.

47*(70%RH) here at 6am.    48* at 9am.    51* at Noon.     Reached 54* at 3pm.