November 2023

[North and West]

The major reporting stations still looking for their first freeze 

Didn’t know that, thank you. I assume CPK and the airports?


.

[psv88]

Still too many mosquitoes and yellowjackets for my liking. 

[SACRUS]

 

mde it to 69 here - clouds parted too late for any 70s here.  Still a nice day.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Surprised about Westhampton, they usually drop huge with radiational cooling. Maybe there were lots of clouds. A little surprised about Teterboro also.

It’s an amazing station, I watch it a little too much. So if the wind is over 10mph it doesn’t radiate. Obviously if the winds calm it’s bombs away. Even the wantagh mesonet went below freezing and it just as coastal. 

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures rose into the 60s across the region today. However, parts of the Plains States saw monthly record highs. Monthly records included: Amarillo: 88°; Borger, TX: 91°; Childress, TX: 94°; Gage, OK: 93°; Hollis, OK: 95°; Vernon, TX: 92°; and, Wichita Falls, TX: 90°.

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler before milder air returns on Thursday.

Afterward, a strong cold front, perhaps preceded by some showers, will bring a period of colder weather to the region. Overall, the first 10-14 days of November remains on track for a cold anomaly.

The long-range guidance is continuing to move into consensus that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway.

The SOI was -18.71 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.580 today.

On November 3 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.122 (RMM). The November 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.310 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.8° (0.2° below normal).

 

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

Tererboro and Newark are in the city? 

God are they ever

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Still too many mosquitoes and yellowjackets for my liking. 

yeah there are a bunch here still-I figured 2 nights of subfreezing would kill them off but not the ones with the nest under our vinyl siding

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah there are a bunch here still-I figured 2 nights of subfreezing would kill them off but not the ones with the nest under our vinyl siding

It's very low, but there's still a little ragweed pollen out there too. It takes more than a couple brief light to moderate freezes to kill off these annoying things. The bugs and ragweed won't be gone until we get more consistent freezing temps.

[Maureen]

6 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

It's very low, but there's still a little ragweed pollen out there too. It takes more than a couple brief light to moderate freezes to kill off these annoying things. The bugs and ragweed won't be gone until we get more consistent freezing temps.

Ragweed refuses to die this year, it’s miserable! 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  47degs.(41/53) or -2.

Reached 65 here yesterday at 4pm.

Today: 50-53, wind nw., increasing clouds late, 46 tomorrow AM.

47*(54%RH) here at 6am.   44* at 8am.      Reached 51* at 4pm.

[lee59]

Chilly, breezy morning and temperature still falling slowly 42.7

[bluewave]

NW NJ actually came closest around the region to reaching 70° yesterday.

 

Walpack

NJ

2023-11-07

SafetyNet

69

46

[lee59]

65 here yesterday. Maybe a shot at 70 for some tomorrow before back to November temps.

[SACRUS]

 

41 to a breezy 46. Cooler today hot tomale back into the mid 60s.  Cloudy friday and yet another dry weekend on tap.  Nov 11 - Nov 13/14 chill down near or perhaps chillier than the Nov 1 -3 period.  Nov 15 - beyond warm to much above for 5  - 7 days.  We'll see if that ridging brings more moisture/storm potential 11/22 - 11/24.

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 77 (2020) - 5 day record warmth period 3 years ago
NYC: 76 (1975)
LGA: 77 (2020)


Lows:

EWR: 27 (1976) cold nov-dec
NYC: 29 (2019)
LGA: 31 (2019)

 

Historical:

 

1870: The U.S. Signal Corps Weather Service issued the first storm warning on this day. Professor Increase A. Lapham believed that warnings of deadly storms on the Great Lakes could be derived from telegraphed weather observations. As a result, a bill was introduced and signed into law to establish a national telegraphic weather service. The Signal Corps began taking observations of November 1st, 1870. On this date, Lapham would issue the first storm warning, a cautionary forecast for the Great Lakes. 

1870 - The first storm warning was issued by the U.S. Signal Corps Weather Service. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1913: The Great Lakes Storm of November 7-13, 1913, was a blizzard with hurricane-force winds that devastated the Great Lakes Region, sinking as many as 19 ships and stranding 19 others. This storm would be the deadliest and most destructive natural disaster ever to hit the Great Lakes.

1943 - An early season snowstorm raged across eastern South Dakota and Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. The storm produced 22 inches of snow at Fairbult and Marshall MN, 20 inches at Redwood Falls MN, and 10.1 inches at Minneapolis. Drifts fifteen feet high were reported in Cottonwood County MN. The storm produced up to two feet of snow in South Dakota smothering a million Thanksgiving day turkeys. (6th-8th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1953 - Residents of New York City suffered through ten days of smog resulting in 200 deaths. (The Weather Channel)

1966 - The temperature in downtown San Francisco reached a November record of 86 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms over Texas produced locally heavy rains in the Hill Country, with 3.50 inches reported at Lakeway, and 3.72 inches reported at Anderson Mill. Thunderstorms over Louisiana produced hail an inch in diameter at Clay and at Provencial. Blustery northwest winds, ushering cold air into western Kansas and into northwest Texas, gusted to 46 mph at Hill City KS. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Fair weather prevailed across much of the nation for Election Day. Midland TX equalled their record for November with an afternoon high of 89 degrees, and the record high of 87 degrees at Roswell NM was their fifth in eight days. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from northern Louisiana into central Georgia. Thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes, and there were sixty-four reports of large hail or damaging winds. A late afternoon thunderstorm in central Georgia spawned a tornado which killed one person and injured eight others at Pineview. Late afternoon thunderstorms in central Mississippi produced baseball size hail around Jackson, and wind gusts to 70 mph Walnut Grove. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1994: The twelfth and final tropical cyclone of the Atlantic hurricane season formed in the southwestern Caribbean. While Hurricane Gordon was only a Category 1, it killed 1,149 individuals, including 1,122 in Haiti.

[Stormlover74]

There's a nonzero chance ewr will have no measurable precip for the first 20 days of the month

[vegan_edible]

12z GFS showing some cold air diving into the east thanksgiving week. It's out in fantasy land but lets see if it holds

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

12z GFS showing some cold air diving into the east thanksgiving week. It's out in fantasy land but lets see if it holds

November doesn't look torchy

[BucksCO_PA]

17 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah there are a bunch here still-I figured 2 nights of subfreezing would kill them off but not the ones with the nest under our vinyl siding

Last year we had yellow jackets make a nest under the siding just above ground level. I left them alone until they found their way into the basement & stung my wife & one of the grandkids. 

I used the product in the video, mixed based on the ratio indicated & it took out about close to half the nest based on the reduced activity. For the 2nd application I bumped up the Duo from 5ml to 10 ml & that finished them off. Relatively inexpensive solution as opposed to calling an exterminator.

 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

November doesn't look torchy

Yea the longer range model forecasts seem to be getting colder. I don't put to much in forecasts some 10-15 days out. Things change a lot.

[bluewave]

We could finish November warmer than average if the advertised mid to late November warmth verifies.

[the_other_guy]

50 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yea the longer range model forecasts seem to be getting colder. I don't put to much in forecasts some 10-15 days out. Things change a lot.

Words of wisdom!!

[wdrag]

How bout some ice pellets for the area of northern NJ NYC between 5 and 8p. And then spreading through se NYS and CT early tonight. 

 Probably last 30 minutes or less. If it’s ice pellets it goes down as snow in the records, unless I’m mistaken. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Yea the longer range model forecasts seem to be getting colder. I don't put to much in forecasts some 10-15 days out. Things change a lot.

Euro seasonal looks really nice for the winter 

[SACRUS]

11 years agi

 

https://www.weather.gov/phi/11072012

[qg_omega]

Sleeting

[gravitylover]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

How bout some ice pellets for the area of northern NJ NYC between 5 and 8p. And then spreading through se NYS and CT early tonight. 

 Probably last 30 minutes or less. If it’s ice pellets it goes down as snow in the records, unless I’m mistaken. 

I thought the raindrops felt kinda firm a few minutes ago. Good call Walt. 

[donsutherland1]

Milder air will return tomorrow. Afterward, a strong cold front, perhaps preceded by some showers, will bring a period of colder weather to the region. Overall, the first 10-14 days of November remains on track for a cold anomaly.

The long-range guidance is continuing to move into consensus that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway.

The SOI was -17.82 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.349 today.

On November 4 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.098 (RMM). The November 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.122 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.8° (0.2° below normal).

 

[MANDA]

NJ October weather Summary:

https://www.njweather.org/content/tranquility-october-2023-recap

Seems like November continues the trend of October.   Zzzzzzzz for at least the next week to 10 days.  Nothing resembling a good cold shot in our immediate future that's for sure.

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

11 years agi

 

https://www.weather.gov/phi/11072012

I'll never forget this one.  After a week without power following Sandy, it was finally restored hours before this storm hit.  3 hours later, right after the generator was finally tucked away, the power was out *again*, only to come back on the very moment after I'd cleared a spot in the snow, rolled the generator back out, and had fired it up.  In the wind I believe I heard the weather gods mock me that night.