November 2023

[Allsnow]

55 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Had a few flurries at Allaire State Park in Monmouth County around noon (was playing disc golf there)...

As an aside, CPK hit 30F on 11/25 its first temp AOB 32F, but I don't recall any freeze watches/warnings - did I miss that somehow?  

NWS discontinued issuing freeze warnings because the growing season ended for the majority of the area 

[NorthShoreWx]

Had a couple of flurries this afternoon in Smithtown.  Its rare for us to not get at least a trace in November.  Maybe not as rare as a heavy November snowfall.

[Stormlover74]

31 now on my way down to 22

[North and West]

31 now on my way down to 22

.

[weathermedic]

5 hours ago, Dark Star said:

MVA's?

motor vehicle accidents

[donsutherland1]

Today was blustery and winterlike with highs finishing in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Baltimore, Bridgeport, Islip, New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia were among locations seeing their first snow flurries of the season.

Tomorrow be partly sunny but unseasonably cold. Temperatures will again peak mainly in the 30s in much of the region. A moderating trend should commence on Thursday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around November 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.80°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter.  

Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar ENSO/PDO conditions: December 1972.

The SOI was -1.72 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.042 today.

On November 26 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.824 (RMM). The November 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.015 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.3° (1.6° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019.

 

[tmagan]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through November 27, both New York City and Philadelphia are continuing their longest streaks on record during which less than 1" daily snowfall was measured.

The record for longest streak with less than 2" daily snowfall for Central Park is coming up for December 15th.

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, tmagan said:

The record for longest streak with less than 2" daily snowfall for Central Park is coming up for December 15th.

Yes it is. Sadly, I think the Park will break that record, too.

[Volcanic Winter]

What’s the longest <1” for Boston? I can’t imagine it’s more than close to a year? Actually have no idea and am curious. 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

What’s the longest <1” for Boston? I can’t imagine it’s more than close to a year? Actually have no idea and am curious. 

386 days.

[SACRUS]

40 today and down to 27 now.

[SACRUS]

 

11/28 records

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 72 (2011)
NYC: 70 (2011)
LGA: 68 (1990)


Lows:

EWR:  16 (1932)
NYC: 15 (1930)
LGA:  21 (1951)

 

Historical:

 

1921 - New England was in the midst of a four day icestorm, their worst of record. Ice was more than three inches thick in many places following the storm, and property damage was in the millions of dollars. Northern New England received heavy snow with more than two feet reported in some areas. Overnight freezing rains continued through the day at Worcester MA while the wind increased to a gale. Streets become impassable even on foot, and whole towns were plunged into darkness without communication. The storm caused 20 million dollars damage to power lines, telephone lines and trees. (David Ludlum)

1960 - A severe storm produced waves 20 to 40 feet high on Lake Superior. Duluth, MN, was buried under a foot of snow, and clocked wind gusts to 73 mph. The northern shore of Lake Superior was flooded, and property along the shore was battered. Thousands of cords of pulpwood were washed into Lake Superior, and up to three feet of water flooded the main street of Grand Marais. Thunder accompanied the nor'easter . (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Low pressure in the Middle Mississippi Valley produced a mixture of snow and sleet and freezing rain from the Central Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley. Snowfall totals in Iowa ranged up to ten inches at Red Oak. Totals in Nebraska ranged up to 11 inches at Shickley. Freezing rain made roads treacherous in the Twin Cities area of southeastern Minnesota. Bitter cold arctic air invaded the Northern High Plains Region. Laramie WY was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 18 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms spawned five tornadoes in North Carolina during the early morning hours. A powerful tornado ripped through one of the most densely populated areas of Raleigh destroying hundreds of homes and damaging thousands more. The tornado killed four persons along its 83 mile track, and injured 154 others. Total damage was estimated at more than 77 million dollars. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Strong Santa Ana winds prevailed across southern California. Winds gusted to 70 mph at the Rialto Airport, and several tractor- trailer trucks were overturned east of Los Angeles. High winds also buffeted the northeastern U.S., ushering arctic air into the region. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Montpelier VT, and reached 66 mph at Saint Albans VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[wdrag]

Please correct me if I'm wrong: NYC-CP and PHL have climate summary for yesterday as Trace snow... but I. must have missed this in the obs... no SB/SE, and I see the CF6 monthly summary that shows the dailies in PHL has no T pcpn and no T snow. Still waiting for NYC.  Not sure if controversy is looming on such a minor event but I might have missed something.  It's possible le local observers that supplement the snowfall data had an override.  

Unofficially, in my mind, it would seem both cities had brief Trace flurries but I might have missed something at the ASOS. If you find it, just let us know.  Thanks.

More on possible first measurable in the Dec thread.

[dmillz25]

Coldest of the season so far. Down to 27

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Please correct me if I'm wrong: NYC-CP and PHL have climate summary for yesterday as Trace snow... but I. must have missed this in the obs... no SB/SE, and I see the CF6 monthly summary that shows the dailies in PHL has no T pcpn and no T snow. Still waiting for NYC.  Not sure if controversy is looming on such a minor event but I might have missed something.  It's possible le local observers that supplement the snowfall data had an override.  

Unofficially, in my mind, it would seem both cities had brief Trace flurries but I might have missed something at the ASOS. If you find it, just let us know.  Thanks.

More on possible first measurable in the Dec thread.

TV media reports of flurries and snow showers in many parts of the Philly area earlier yesterday morning.  

[bluewave]

November continues to be one of the few months of the year that is able to reliably produce colder departures at times. 

The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 have been more pronounced during certain months. Newark and Islip are compared below. The +1.0 or warmer months for either station were bolded. 

 

……….EWR…..ISP

Dec…+1.5….+1.5

Jan….+1.2…+1.3

Feb….+0.5….+0.5

 

Mar….+0.4….+0.6

Apr….+0.5…..+0.6

May...+0.6….+0.9

 

Jun….+0.3….+0.6

Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1

Aug...+0.6….+0.9

 

Sep….+1.0….+1.3

Oct…..+0.9..+1.4

Nov….+0.2..+0.5

[steve392]

Gorgeous last two days off from work.  Had first snow showers yesterday and they didn't disappoint.

 

Currently 24 in Paramus, NJ.

[crossbowftw3]

13 hours ago, weathermedic said:

motor vehicle accidents

If what a family member told me was right, it was an oil truck near Liberty 

[SACRUS]

 

Down to 23 last night.   A bit warmer today, then warmer but wetter Thu - Monday.  Next cold spell looks Dec 5 - 7 ahead of overwall warmer into the first half of Dec.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1990)
NYC: 69 (1990)
LGA: 69 (1990)


Lows:

EWR: 15 (1955)
NYC:  14 (1875)
LGA: 17 (1955)

Historical:

1896 - The mercury plunged to 51 degrees below zero at Havre, MT. It marked the culmination of a two week long cold wave caused by a stagnate high pressure area similar to those over Siberia during the winter. During the month of November temperatures across Montana and the Dakotas averaged 15 to 25 degrees below normal. (David Ludlum)

1969 - Dense fog along the Jersey Turnpike resulted in a chain reaction of vehicle collisions during the morning rush hour. A propane truck jacknifed and was struck by a trailor truck, and other vehicles piled into the fiery mass. (David Ludlum)

1975 - Red River was buried under 34 inches of snow in 24 hours, establishing a record for the state of New Mexico. (The Weather Channel)

1985 - The temperature at Bismarck, ND, plunged to 30 degrees below zero to establish their record low for the month of November. The high that day was 4 degrees below zero. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Snow blanketed the Upper Mississippi Valley, with heavy snow reported near Lake Superior. Up to ten inches of snow was reported in Douglas County and Bayfield County of Wisconsin. Brule WI received nine inches of snow. Heavy rain soaked the Middle Atlantic Coast States, while gale force winds lashed the coastline. Flooding was reported in Maryland and Virginia. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Nine inches of snow at Alta UT brought their total for the month to 164 inches, surpassing their previous November record of 144 inches. Snowbird UT, also in the Little Cottonwood Valley, surpassed their November record of 118 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong Santa Ana winds diminished over southern California, but record cold was reported in some of the California valleys, with readings of 27 degrees at Redding and 31 degrees at Bakersfield. Gale force winds, gusting to 44 mph at Milwuakee WI, produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region. Sault Ste Marie MI finished the month of November with a record 46.8 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1991:A tornado struck southeast Springfield, Missouri, causing F4 damage. Shortly after touchdown, the tornado reached F3 intensity, approximately 3 miles north of the town of Nixa. While crossing Highway 65, the tornado picked up a truck and dropped it onto a frontage road, killing one passenger and injuring ten others. The tornado intensified to F4 strength as it moved through the Woodbridge and Natural Bridge Estates subdivisions where 15 homes were destroyed. Altogether, two people were killed and 64 others were injured.

 

[Snowlover11]

low of 24.

[MANDA]

Low of 18 with a breeze.  Legit "hoodie weather".

[psv88]

25

[snywx]

19° for a low here 

[ForestHillWx]

I’m at 26 now but it was definitely chilly when I put the trash out at 7.  

[FPizz]

21 this morning, coldest so far.

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

If what a family member told me was right, it was an oil truck near Liberty 

Hope he's ok

[wdrag]

Added CoCoRaHs reports from our area yesterday... not enough traces here cause many reporters probably at work. Flurries yesterday were widespread in total. 

For fun added the two day Old Forge area where snowmobiling is popular.  13" on the ground there this morning (snow mobile trail groomer report) with probably 15-18" powder having been deposited. Note the 30" CoCoRaHs report near Redfield... I saw an LSR of 33" nearby and finally..  the north side gradient down to Trace. Wow!

I kind of agree with many posters... different than last year at this early stage.  Seemingly better. 

 

Click for clarity.

[BucksCO_PA]

25 degrees this morning at PHL, the average date over the entire Philadelphia POR (1874) for the 1st 25 degree day of the season is 11/29 

Since 2000 that average date is 12/7.

[Dark Star]

On 11/27/2023 at 3:52 PM, Volcanic Winter said:

2-4 per millenium. 2x per thousand years is the most commonly cited figure, but IMHO it’s a poorly constrained figure with a very low absolute sample size.

If you expand the field to ‘borderline VEI 7’ events, or eruptions with total eruptive volume around 75-90 cubic kilometers (ten shy of a VEI 7 and functionally indistinguishable), it’s closer to at least 4 per thousand years. Do be mindful of if literature speaks in terms of DRE (dense rock equivalent) or tephra volume, sometimes it’s not clear which figure a paper is referencing. It varies but generally tephra volume is 2.5x the DRE, and for purposes of VEI ratings you normally look at the bulk tephra volume.

1000CE to present you had Samalas / Rinjani in 1257 (a bit larger than Tambora even), Tambora in 1815, and possibly the poorly constrained and still debatable Kuwae eruption in the 1450’s, which was possibly very, very large. 

Going back into the 10th century you have the Millenium eruption of Changbaishan / Paekdu Mountain which was a borderline 6-7. 

Very tricky to answer. Different sources will offer different opinions. 

Takeaway: they’re really not that rare. The next could be right around the corner… 

Don’t forget in 1808/9 we had an unknown massive eruption (or series of clustered very large eruptions) just before Tambora, with its own massive sulfur spike showing up in the ice cores. All part of why the 1810’s were one of the coldest decades in human history. Talk about improbable, but speaks to how potentially frequent large eruptions can be (frequent on a century to century basis). 

I wonder if there are graphs or charts showing the world wide temperature effects based on volcanic actiivty over the last 200 years?