November 2023

[ForestHillWx]

More rain than expected. That puts me close to 3.5-4” this month after starting out rather dry. 

[BlizzLuv]

Last night, my sump pump ran for the first time since summer. It only triggers once or twice a year. I do not recall it ever triggering in November in the 20+ years we have lived here.

[donsutherland1]

On 11/19/2023 at 12:25 PM, donsutherland1 said:

The week ahead is looking somewhat cooler than normal and wetter than normal. Snowfall for the big cities of the Northeast is unlikely. A low percentage of EPS ensemble members shows some snow for Boston.

Final Outcomes:

[bluewave]

Tuesday into Wednesday will probably be the coldest readings we see in a while.

 

[MJO812]

Scattered flurries possible tomorrow 

[STORMANLI]

0.30"

Multiple objects and trash cans relocated as also occurred elsewhere. 

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

0.30"

Multiple objects and trash cans relocated as also occurred elsewhere. 

that's about what I had here...winds gusted to 40-where was the wind advisory?

[STORMANLI]

49 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's about what I had here...winds gusted to 40-where was the wind advisory?

I guess it was a blown forecast.

[Stormlover74]

22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's about what I had here...winds gusted to 40-where was the wind advisory?

They mentioned the storm was stronger than forecast so sounds like it caught them off guard

In related news I feel like this year has had the lowest amount of wind advisories I can remember 

[Brian5671]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

They mentioned the storm was stronger than forecast so sounds like it caught them off guard

In related news I feel like this year has had the lowest amount of wind advisories I can remember 

Most of the time the best winds seem to come out of nowhere...

[psv88]

21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Most of the time the best winds seem to come out of nowhere...

And thunderstorms as well…

[psv88]

Hit 56 at 1 am, that should be the high I would think. Coldest temp this date in past 8 years here was 32, so interesting that recently this has been a warm day

[SACRUS]

49 now partly sunny and breeezy. 0.81 from the Sunday system.  Cool down Tue - Fri then Decemeber opens warm.  Perhapsin and out trough Dec 6 - 8 before more overall warmer than normal. 

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:
 

EWR: 67 (1960)
NYC: 72 (1896)
LGA: 65 (2015)

Lows:

EWR: 12 (1932)
NYC: 12 (1932)
LGA: 23 (1949) - records1942

 

Historical:

 

1883 - Fire engines were called out in New York City and New Haven, CT, as a result of the afterglow of the sunset due to vivid red ash from the Krakatoa Volcano explosion in August. (The Weather Channel)

1898 - The Portland storm raged across New England producing gale force winds along the coast and heavy snow inland. A foot of snow blanketed Boston MA, and 27 inches fell at New London CT. Winds at Boston gusted to 72 mph, and wind gusts to 98 mph were estimated at Block Island RI. A passenger ship, the S. S. Portland, sank off Cape Cod with the loss of all 191 persons aboard, and Boston Harbor was filled with wrecked ships. The storm wrecked 56 vessels resulting in a total of 456 casualties. (26th- 28th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1898: A powerful storm, known as the "Portland Gale" impacted the coastal areas of New England on November 26 - 27, 1898. The storm formed when two areas of low pressures merged off the coast of New Jersey and traveled up the east coast. This storm produced hurricane force winds in Nantucket and sank more than 150 boats and ships.

1960: An ice storm occurred from 40 miles on either side of a line from Pipestone to Brainerd, Minnesota. Power and communication lines were downed, leaving at least 22 communities isolated. Ice coasting reported ranged from one half to three fourth of an inch at Lake Benton. Heavy snow fell in eastern North Dakota with blizzard conditions throughout the state. In South Dakota, this storm began as freezing rain on the 27th and remained largely as such in the southeast quarter of the state. The remainder of the experienced blizzard conditions with 5 to 10 inches of snow and winds gusting to 30 to 60 mph. These horrible caused extensive closing of schools and businesses, blocked highways, and disrupted telephone and power services. Slippery highways caused many auto accidents. Some loss of livestock was reported, such as 1,000 turkeys in Gettysburg. Restoration of telephone service alone was estimated to have cost $210,000 and required up to three days after the storm.

1987 - Wet weather prevailed across much of the nation east of the Rockies. Sunny and cool weather prevailed in the western U.S. Snow fell in the central U.S., with totals in Kansas ranging up to six inches at Burr Oak. Much of the area from central Oklahoma to southwestern Minnesota experienced its first snow of the winter season. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in Minnesota. Winds gusted to 63 mph at Windom, and snowfall totals ranged up to 14 inches at Aitkin. Snow drifts seven feet high closed many roads. Fargo ND reported a wind chill reading of 34 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A storm system crossing the north central U.S. spread snow across the Dakotas and Minnesota. Heavy snow fell in western South Dakota, with 18 inches reported at Galena. Strong winds associated with the storm gusted to 50 mph in the Great Lakes Region and the Great Plains, with blowing dust reported in Kansas. Thunderstorms associated with the same storm system produced damaging winds in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana during the evening, with gusts to 73 mph reported east of Ypsilante MI. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed ahead of the cold front. Twenty-three cities from the Gulf coast to the Ohio Valley and the Mid Mississippi Valley reported record high temperatures for the date, including Saint Louis MO with a reading of 76 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - A major winter storm affected parts of Nebraska and the Dakotas during the 27th-28th. Snowfall accumulations of 16-20 inches were observed in parts of eastern South Dakota, while wind gusts exceeding 60 mph also accompanied the snow, creating blizzard conditions. Thousands of power outages were caused by the combination of strong winds and heavy snow. In South Dakota, about 8,000 utility poles and 10,000 miles of transmission line were brought down by the storm (Associated Press).

[SACRUS]

[MANDA]

1.46" rain for the recent event.

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of November are averaging  41degs.(37/45) or -3.

Month to date is 47.8[-0.8].     November should end at  47.8[-1.3].

Reached 55 at midnight yesterday.

Today:  50-52, wind w. -breezy, few clouds, 33 tomorrow AM.

44* at 6am.     51* at 1pm.

[psv88]

Some pretty significant tree damage in the neighborhood from last nights winds. Can’t post photos here for some reason

[Roger Smith]

With a cold day expected tomorrow, here is a historical overview for NYC: 

Records for Nov 28: 

low max __ 24 1871 (min was 16)

low min ___ 15 1930 (max was 27)

The low max was tied second coldest of Nov to 28th, with 24F also on Nov 21st 1879 and they were one deg behind 23F on 22nd 1880.  It was 25F again on Nov 29, 1871 for another record low max. These early season marks were all obliterated by 14F on Nov 30, 1875. The 1871 cold spell continued with 22F on Nov 30th and this is still second lowest max of month.

The lowest min before 28th was 12F on Nov 27, 1932. Again, this was blown away by 5F on Nov 30, 1875. The second lowest 12F was tied on Nov 30, 1929.

Since the 24 in 1871, 26 in 1901, and 27 in 1882 and 1930, the lowest max on Nov 28 was 31 in 1996. It was 35 in 2002, 2013.

Since the 15F in 1930, the lowest min was 22 on several occasions, most recently 1951. It was 23 in 1996. 

[Volcanic Winter]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

1883 - Fire engines were called out in New York City and New Haven, CT, as a result of the afterglow of the sunset due to vivid red ash from the Krakatoa Volcano explosion in August. (The Weather Channel)

I never heard this before, super interesting!

Yeah Krakatau 1883 was an absolutely enormous eruption, over 3x larger than Pinatubo 1991. The amount of particulate matter and gas dispersing around the globe in the aftermath of that eruption would’ve been immense. The skies after were immortalized in various artwork from that period (“The Scream”).  

Cool, nice find!

[NorthShoreWx]

0.14" here last night.  We've only had 1.84" total for November.

[Dark Star]

32 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I never heard this before, super interesting!

Yeah Krakatau 1883 was an absolutely enormous eruption, over 3x larger than Pinatubo 1991. The amount of particulate matter and gas dispersing around the globe in the aftermath of that eruption would’ve been immense. The skies after were immortalized in various artwork from that period (“The Scream”).  

Cool, nice find!

I wonder what they were responding to?

[MJO812]

First flakes for many tomorrow 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

43 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I never heard this before, super interesting!

Yeah Krakatau 1883 was an absolutely enormous eruption, over 3x larger than Pinatubo 1991. The amount of particulate matter and gas dispersing around the globe in the aftermath of that eruption would’ve been immense. The skies after were immortalized in various artwork from that period (“The Scream”).  

Cool, nice find!

What we would give to experience another eruption of that caliber. Or even better Tambora, a winter on par with the little ice age would follow, despite the current background warming. 

[Volcanic Winter]

25 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

What we would give to experience another eruption of that caliber. Or even better Tambora, a winter on par with the little ice age would follow, despite the current background warming.

For reference, Tambora was as much as ~15x larger than Pinatubo, itself a massive eruption and low end VEI 6 (and 10x larger than Mt St Helen’s!).

Tambora was unfathomably large, especially on the scale of a single human lifespan. None of us know any volcanism that hangs in that ballpark, and it would appear absolutely apocalyptic to us today.

It would also cause immeasurable human suffering, so it’s tough for me to ‘wish for’, despite my obvious passion and scientific curiosity. Tambora’s ashfall and pyroclastic flows were cataclysmic. There’s really no other adjective that’s impactful enough there.  
 

@Dark Star

Probably the red/yellow sulfur/ash glow low on the horizon making something appear that it was on fire? My best guess. The skies all over were absolutely ‘perturbed’ for some time after the eruption. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

24 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

For reference, Tambora was as much as ~15x larger than Pinatubo, itself a massive eruption and low end VEI 6 (and 10x larger than Mt St Helen’s!).

Tambora was unfathomably large, especially on the scale of a single human lifespan. None of us know any volcanism that hangs in that ballpark, and it would appear absolutely apocalyptic to us today.

It would also cause immeasurable human suffering, so it’s tough for me to ‘wish for’, despite my obvious passion and scientific curiosity. Tambora’s ashfall and pyroclastic flows were cataclysmic. There’s really no other adjective that’s impactful enough there.  
 

@Dark Star

Probably the red/yellow sulfur/ash glow low on the horizon making something appear that it was on fire? My best guess. The skies all over were absolutely ‘perturbed’ for some time after the eruption. 

I might now be as on par with volcanos as yourself, I’m more of a wave/hurricane guy, so I have to ask what do you think the reoccurrence rate is of a Tambora event? My favorite is 542AD the mother of them all during civilization. Great docs on that one. 

[Allsnow]

 

[Volcanic Winter]

11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I might now be as on par with volcanos as yourself, I’m more of a wave/hurricane guy, so I have to ask what do you think the reoccurrence rate is of a Tambora event? My favorite is 542AD the mother of them all during civilization. Great docs on that one. 

2-4 per millenium. 2x per thousand years is the most commonly cited figure, but IMHO it’s a poorly constrained figure with a very low absolute sample size.

If you expand the field to ‘borderline VEI 7’ events, or eruptions with total eruptive volume around 75-90 cubic kilometers (ten shy of a VEI 7 and functionally indistinguishable), it’s closer to at least 4 per thousand years. Do be mindful of if literature speaks in terms of DRE (dense rock equivalent) or tephra volume, sometimes it’s not clear which figure a paper is referencing. It varies but generally tephra volume is 2.5x the DRE, and for purposes of VEI ratings you normally look at the bulk tephra volume.

1000CE to present you had Samalas / Rinjani in 1257 (a bit larger than Tambora even), Tambora in 1815, and possibly the poorly constrained and still debatable Kuwae eruption in the 1450’s, which was possibly very, very large. 

Going back into the 10th century you have the Millenium eruption of Changbaishan / Paekdu Mountain which was a borderline 6-7. 

Very tricky to answer. Different sources will offer different opinions. 

Takeaway: they’re really not that rare. The next could be right around the corner… 

Don’t forget in 1808/9 we had an unknown massive eruption (or series of clustered very large eruptions) just before Tambora, with its own massive sulfur spike showing up in the ice cores. All part of why the 1810’s were one of the coldest decades in human history. Talk about improbable, but speaks to how potentially frequent large eruptions can be (frequent on a century to century basis). 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

2-4 per millenium. 2x per thousand years is the most commonly cited figure, but IMHO it’s a poorly constrained figure with a very low absolute sample size.

If you expand the field to ‘borderline VEI 7’ events, or eruptions with total eruptive volume around 90 cubic kilometers (ten shy of a VEI 7 and functionally indistinguishable), it’s closer to at least 4 per thousand years. 

1000CE to present you had Samalas in 1257 (a bit larger than Tambora even), Tambora in 1815, and possibly the poorly constrained and still debatable Kuwae eruption in the 1450’s, which was possibly very, very large. 

Going back into the 10th century you have the Millenium eruption of Changbaishan / Paekdu Mountain which was a borderline 6-7. 

Very tricky to answer. Different sources will had different opinions. 

Takeaway: they’re not *that* rare. 

Excellent response. I find volcanoes incredibly fascinating. It’s, in my opinion the only reliable chance we have at seeing a real NYC old winter in our lifetimes. (The others being truly awful, meteor/comet strike or nuclear winter). I don’t wish anything truly apocalyptic, like Yellowstone going off. Or any population center close super volcanos either. Let’s say a VIE 7 in an extremely remote location. 

[Volcanic Winter]

12 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Excellent response. I find volcanoes incredibly fascinating. It’s, in my opinion the only reliable chance we have at seeing a real NYC old winter in our lifetimes. (The others being truly awful, meteor/comet strike or nuclear winter). I don’t wish anything truly apocalyptic, like Yellowstone going off. Or any population center close super volcanos either. Let’s say a VIE 7 in an extremely remote location. 

It’s the scale. 

Most laypeople have no idea how ridiculously, unfathomably massive explosive eruptions can get.

Mt St Helen’s was a baby burp in comparison. Doesn’t even rate.

The Toba supereruption 75kya was as much as 4,500x larger than St Helens…

———

Anddddd back to the weather! Sorry to derail guys.