November 2023

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That storm was all +pna and -epo driven…

Nothing on the Atlantic side to slow it down or shift it west 

Yeah, much better pattern on Long Island than points further west.
 

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

New England forum meltdown pre thanksgiving. Ya hate to see it 

Yup. The in fighting is already starting with that crew. That forum is on edge after a few bad winters 

[North and West]

Yup. The in fighting is already starting with that crew. That forum is on edge after a few bad winters 

It’s before Thanksgiving, so that’s crazytown.

We’re acting like it’s never going to snow again.


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[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be fair and cooler. Monday will be chilly with temperatures reaching the middle and upper 40s in much of the region. The cool weather will continue through Tuesday.

Afterward, a strong cold front will move across the region during the middle of the week. A storm will move along the front bringing a significant rainfall to the region. A general 1.00"-2.00" with locally higher amounts appears likely.

New York City's annual precipitation will surge past 50.00". Years with 50.00" or precipitation have increased dramatically since the City's climate became abruptly wetter in 1972.

The frequency of 50.00" or above years is as follows:

1869-1971: Once every 7.9 years
1972-2023*: Once every 2.3 years
Since 2000*: Once every 1.8 years

*Includes 2023 as a 50.00" year. 2023 currently has 49.70". No year had less than 0.30" from November 19-December 31. The record least precipitation during that timeframe was 0.67" in 1955.

Afterward, the coldest air of the season will arrive. Thanksgiving Day could be blustery and very cold for the season with the temperature struggling into the lower 40s in New York City and perhaps Philadelphia. Temperatures will slowly moderate afterward.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around November 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.63°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter with the current East-based event continuing to evolve into a basinwide El Niño.

Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965.

Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar conditions: December 1972.

The SOI was +3.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.123 today.

On November 16 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.563 (RMM). The November 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.637 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.1° (1.9° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019.

 

[vegan_edible]

18z GFS shows the cold air back in town for turkey (tofurkey) day. Love to see it

[SACRUS]

Quickly down to 40 here

[brooklynwx99]

much better WB -NAO blocking showing up due to the stronger phase of the Thanksgiving system. hopefully we see this continue 

[Eduardo]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 17-18 winter was +1.1 warmer than average due to the record 80° warmth in February. So the cold departures from December into January got erased by the big +6.1 departure in February. 

NYC

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6

…………..+4.8

 

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

……………..+1.0

 

Feb 21….-1.7

Jan 21….+1.1

Dec 20…+1.7

…………..+0.4

 

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

…………….+4.0

 

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

…………….+4.2

 

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

…………….+5.9

Lol yes I completely forgot about the Feb torch that year.  Early Jan 2018 storm remains near my all-time top storm list for the snow and wind!

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

much better WB -NAO blocking showing up due to the stronger phase of the Thanksgiving system. hopefully we see this continue 

 

It’s pretty rare that we get any decent frozen precip events along the coast in late November with a piece of the trough hanging back over the SW. 

[the_other_guy]

Another night below freezing! Blew right past the forecast too! 30F

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  44degs.(39/49) or -2.

No wet snow here till Dec. 01+ now:

Reached 54 here yesterday at 3pm.

Today:  53-55, wind w.-breezy, few clouds, 36 tomorrow AM.

42*(58%RH) here at 6am.    45* at 9am.    47* at 10am.     49* at Noon.     51* at 1pm.     Reached 56* at 3pm.

[bluewave]

Looks like NYC continues to miss the freezes with the weak CAA and light winds. Thanksgiving should be a nice day for travel with seasonable temperatures. Good that the rain is coming in ahead of the holiday and after. 

 

[forkyfork]

lol

[bluewave]

That the power of even a little forcing near MJO 4-6 around 120 E to pump the Southeast ridge. 
 

New run

 

Old run

 

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

lol

No point looking at model runs in the long range .

[lee59]

Central Park is averaging a half degree below normal so far this month. Their average low is now 41°. The lowest they've been so far is 35°. This is only six degrees below their average low. UHI has a big effect when you're in a period of calm winds and calm weather.

[Volcanic Winter]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s pretty rare that we get any decent frozen precip events along the coast in late November with a piece of the trough hanging back over the SW. 

Yeah I’m not thinking about snow yet, just setting up my candles and offerings so the models find and hold good looks going into December / Jan. 

I’ll take and enjoy whatever seasonal and cool weather we get in the meantime, but my watch begins somewhere in the vicinity of Dec 15th. 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

lol

Impressive cold for Mexico!

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That the power of even a little forcing near MJO 4-6 around 120 E to pump the Southeast ridge. 
 

New run

 

Old run

 

that's a radical change for an ensemble mean inside day 7

[EastonSN+]

Same general issue from last handful of winters. Unfortunately may take a few years to get out of it.

Still hopeful for this winter.

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Central Park is averaging a half degree below normal so far this month. Their average low is now 41°. The lowest they've been so far is 35°. This is only six degrees below their average low. UHI has a big effect when you're in a period of calm winds and calm weather.

Probably mid December before they drop below freezing

[jm1220]

39 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Same general issue from last handful of winters. Unfortunately may take a few years to get out of it.

Still hopeful for this winter.

As long as we have this perma-Nina background state we'll struggle. Hopefully either the Nino can finally overpower it or we get lucky with blocking like Feb 2021.

[Allsnow]

32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Probably mid December before they drop below freezing

Mid January 

[psv88]

29 this morning. 
 

 

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

As long as we have this perma-Nina background state we'll struggle. Hopefully either the Nino can finally overpower it or we get lucky with blocking like Feb 2021.

the IO forcing is pretty handily running the show, though. i don't think the two are really related... there isn't some permanent Nina background state, we've just had a bunch of them recently

[brooklynwx99]

also it's not like it doesn't get cold... just delayed by a day, pretty typical medium range errors when phasing is involved

[wilsonvoid1]

also it's not like it doesn't get cold... just delayed by a day, pretty typical medium range errors when phasing is involved

tone of potential in the long range. I don't follow the weather as much as I used as I used to be a feen now I am more of an enthusiast. I see some good potential for snow for our area in the future. I am not an expert, but what do you think?

T


.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, wilsonvoid1 said:

tone of potential in the long range. I don't follow the weather as much as I used as I used to be a feen now I am more of an enthusiast. I see some good potential for snow for our area in the future. I am not an expert, but what do you think?

T


.

if we had this pattern a month from now I'd be more excited, but it's still too early to see much unless there's a really anomalous setup

[Stormlover74]

42 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Mid January 

Never 

[donsutherland1]

The week ahead is looking somewhat cooler than normal and wetter than normal. Snowfall for the big cities of the Northeast is unlikely. A low percentage of EPS ensemble members shows some snow for Boston.