WX-PA Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Ensembles backing off on cold around Thanksgiving with a warm up right after. So similar pattern of recent years with models underestimating the Southeast ridge day 6-10. New run Old run How is this warm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Ensembles backing off on cold around Thanksgiving with a warm up right after. So similar pattern of recent years with models underestimating the Southeast ridge day 6-10. New run Old run as of now, you mean another transient cold shot with normal or slightly below or above normal temperatures right after. Just to clarify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Ensembles backing off on cold around Thanksgiving with a warm up right after. So similar pattern of recent years with models underestimating the Southeast ridge day 6-10. New run Old run For the younger folks, 1980s weather. I remember TWC used to use the phrase "just a cold snap in the northeast followed by warmer temps". Definitely would never want to relive the 80s winters again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Question, does anyone have temp stats for the 1980s? Forky and others say it was frigid, however outside of 87 and 88 I remember it being really warm. I do remember the storms would always "cut" followed by cold shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 43 minutes ago, WX-PA said: How is this warm? I think he means that the models aren't as cold as they were. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Very windy here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 48 minutes ago, WX-PA said: How is this warm? it's not as cold as it had been looking 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Models have done a 180 on the cold, not a good sign for the winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: it's not as cold as it had been looking That's impressive cold doe the middle of the country! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: For the younger folks, 1980s weather. I remember TWC used to use the phrase "just a cold snap in the northeast followed by warmer temps". Definitely would never want to relive the 80s winters again. Overall the 80s winters were cold but not particularly stormy and the timing was often off but we didn't have a lot of major rainstorms either. Cold and dry was the rule. Jan 82 and 85 had famous arctic outbreaks with below zero temps. Christmas of 80 was also below zero 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 13 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Models have done a 180 on the cold, not a good sign for the winter Stop trolling 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 14 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Models have done a 180 on the cold, not a good sign for the winter Actually most (public) would be happy with another warm, snow-free winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Actually most (public) would be happy with another warm, snow-free winter. It's not even winter yet. The same knuckleheads keep doing this every year. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Actually most (public) would be happy with another warm, snow-free winter. Yeah, not sure what it’s going to take to finally see a cold winter again in the Northeast. Northeast DJF average temperatures since 15-16 22-23….30.7…..+4.9….2nd warmest 21-22…..26.1…..+0.3 20-21…..27.1…..+2.2….16th warmest 19-20…..28.9…..+4.0…6th warmest 18-19…..25.6……+0.7 17-18…..25.3……+0.4 16-17…..29.5……+4.6….5th warmest 15-16…..30.7…..+5.8……2nd warmest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: That's impressive cold doe the middle of the country! Just where it’s been going the last 4-5 years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, not sure what it’s going to take to finally see a cold winter again in the Northeast. Northeast DJF average temperatures since 15-16 22-23….30.7…..+4.9….2nd warmest 21-22…..26.1…..+0.3 20-21…..27.1…..+2.2….16th warmest 19-20…..28.9…..+4.0…6th warmest 18-19…..25.6……+0.7 17-18…..25.3……+0.4 16-17…..29.5……+4.6….5th warmest 15-16…..30.7…..+5.8……2nd warmest It’ll be very interesting to see the studies/research on it but it’s been crazy to see this Nina-ish background state continue year after year and the cold dump into the Rockies/Plains. I’m sure they’d be fine with a warm winter stretch like we’ve been getting. In the Northwest and upper Plains it’s near record cold at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, not sure what it’s going to take to finally see a cold winter again in the Northeast. Northeast DJF average temperatures since 15-16 22-23….30.7…..+4.9….2nd warmest 21-22…..26.1…..+0.3 20-21…..27.1…..+2.2….16th warmest 19-20…..28.9…..+4.0…6th warmest 18-19…..25.6……+0.7 17-18…..25.3……+0.4 16-17…..29.5……+4.6….5th warmest 15-16…..30.7…..+5.8……2nd warmest Probably take another 5 to 10 years to get into a colder regime. Of course we can get a good winter or 2 sprinkled in beforehand. Cold dumping into the west coast and middle of the country. We had 2000 through 2018 it's their turn lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, not sure what it’s going to take to finally see a cold winter again in the Northeast. Northeast DJF average temperatures since 15-16 22-23….30.7…..+4.9….2nd warmest 21-22…..26.1…..+0.3 20-21…..27.1…..+2.2….16th warmest 19-20…..28.9…..+4.0…6th warmest 18-19…..25.6……+0.7 17-18…..25.3……+0.4 16-17…..29.5……+4.6….5th warmest 15-16…..30.7…..+5.8……2nd warmest I feel like those days are past us with the rapid warming we've been seeing. Even strong blocking doesn't do much anymore due to its unfavorable location. That and the shrinking polar vortex makes cold less likely. The 15/16 Nino was our tipping point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 12 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Just where it’s been going the last 4-5 years. It will be our turn again. May take a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I feel like those days are past us with the rapid warming we've been seeing. Even strong blocking doesn't do much anymore due to its unfavorable location. That and the shrinking polar vortex makes cold less likely. Last year's blocking failure was driven by an extremely deep trough off the west coast. That overpowered the block and not shocking. On the bright side an epic winter on the west coast with lots of rain and run-off for the reservoirs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 51 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Overall the 80s winters were cold but not particularly stormy and the timing was often off but we didn't have a lot of major rainstorms either. Cold and dry was the rule. Jan 82 and 85 had famous arctic outbreaks with below zero temps. Christmas of 80 was also below zero I feel like 1976 through 1980 was an extremely cold timeframe. Too young but my dad used to talk of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I feel like 1976 through 1980 was an extremely cold timeframe. Too young but my dad used to talk of it. 76-77 yes not sure about the other years. 78 was very stormy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 couple light showers here this AM but the dry spell continues .25 since 10/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: For the younger folks, 1980s weather. I remember TWC used to use the phrase "just a cold snap in the northeast followed by warmer temps". Definitely would never want to relive the 80s winters again. seems like that's what we get now-even the cold for Thanksgiving is muted compared to 3-4 days ago on models.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Down to 52 now from a 60 degree high just after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 The cold air comes pouring after next week on the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 0.02 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: It’ll be very interesting to see the studies/research on it but it’s been crazy to see this Nina-ish background state continue year after year and the cold dump into the Rockies/Plains. I’m sure they’d be fine with a warm winter stretch like we’ve been getting. In the Northwest and upper Plains it’s near record cold at the same time. Yeah, the most impressive Arctic outbreak since 15-16 went to our west in February 2021. The February departures weren’t low enough for the winter to average colder than normal. So we go into this winter with a record 8 warmer than average winters in a row. A record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño. NYC Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: seems like that's what we get now-even the cold for Thanksgiving is muted compared to 3-4 days ago on models.... Yeah history repeating itself. Its the west coast turn. We had our fun 2000 through 2018. 1955 through 1969 seemed really snowy too looking at the KU book. 30 year periods between great periods? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah history repeating itself. Its the west coast turn. We had our fun 2000 through 2018. 1955 through 1969 seemed really snowy too looking at the KU book. 30 year periods between great periods? It never snows on Thanksgiving. ..Average high is 52 degrees...We will be below avearge this Thanksgiving. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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