November 2023

[MJO812]

Cold Thanksgiving on gfs and cmc 

[Stormlover74]

Both lost the Friday storn

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Probably somewhat of a hang over of the 3 yr Nina...hopefully we see a change as we head deeper into winter...even a 15-16 type winter (3 weeks of winter) would work after last year's ratter.

I almost wonder if we need a basin-wide super Niño to meaningfully reshuffle things (December 2017 was great!).  So tired of these boring winters.  

And yes I agree that maybe there is some potential for some fun later on in the winter.  But the fact that so many seem willing—with good reason—to punt December kinda tells us where we are (and it’s not a happy place unless you dig seeing all the cold out west).

[WX-PA]

21 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I almost wonder if we need a basin-wide super Niño to meaningfully reshuffle things (December 2017 was great!).  So tired of these boring winters.  

And yes I agree that maybe there is some potential for some fun later on in the winter.  But the fact that so many seem willing—with good reason—to punt December kinda tells us where we are (and it’s not a happy place unless you dig seeing all the cold out west).

who's punting December?..It's November 13th lol

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Vortex record strong going into December is not great for a snowy start. My bet would be that any changes we would see will be when that starts to weaken towards the starts of January 

I’m fully in that camp, let the cold air build over the pole and send it down (hopefully on our side of the world after the new year) pretty typical nino forecast. I don’t think this winter will full on rat, but I do believe there will be lots of talk of it ratting after December. 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m fully in that camp, let the cold air build over the pole and send it down (hopefully on our side of the world after the new year) pretty typical nino forecast. I don’t think this winter will full on rat, but I do believe there will be lots of talk of it ratting after December. 

Agreed. I think we get a storm probably around end of January/February following Nino climo. I don’t think it will be a blockbuster but will feel that way compared to nothing last winter 

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Agreed. I think we get a storm probably around end of January/February following Nino climo. I don’t think it will be a blockbuster but will feel that way compared to nothing last winter 

That long ? Hopefully not.

 

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m fully in that camp, let the cold air build over the pole and send it down (hopefully on our side of the world after the new year) pretty typical nino forecast. I don’t think this winter will full on rat, but I do believe there will be lots of talk of it ratting after December. 

There are talks now of rather lol

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That long ? Hopefully not.

 

Some winters the waiting never stops……

[Eduardo]

50 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

who's punting December?..It's November 13th lol

Just a few examples, I suppose, but it appears this guy:

39 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m fully in that camp, let the cold air build over the pole and send it down (hopefully on our side of the world after the new year) pretty typical nino forecast. I don’t think this winter will full on rat, but I do believe there will be lots of talk of it ratting after December. 

And maybe this guy:

34 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Agreed. I think we get a storm probably around end of January/February following Nino climo. I don’t think it will be a blockbuster but will feel that way compared to nothing last winter 

But never this guy (and we love him for it) 

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That long ? Hopefully not.

 

 

In fairness, typical Niño climo would mean that we’d have to wait for the second half to get anything meaningful anyway.  So, whether you think it’s due to continuity from the past few craptastic winters or that we’ve broken that logjam with the current ENSO state, a boring, mild December is the more likely outcome here.

[BxEngine]

They could run graduate level psych classes based on our subforum alone. 

[JustinRP37]

I don't get this doom and gloom. Maybe it is because I'm much further north, but November has been great up here. We were down to the low 20s and nothing but a few days scream really warm. Even a degree warmer or so over average can and does produce around here. I don't think we are looking at another snowless winter. It is very difficult to put up winters with less that 10 inches of snow across most of the subforum, just like it is very difficult to produce winters with 50+ inches across the whole subforum. Calm down. It is November 13th, and it was beautiful and COLD this morning. 

[WX-PA]

Euro cold Thanksgiving day..big switch from yesterday when it was dumping all the cold out west..looks very wintry late next week.

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Euro cold Thanksgiving day..big switch from yesterday when it was dumping all the cold out west..looks very wintry late next week.

The models are really struggling with the split flow and it may be a while before they get the pattern correct. La Niña background lingering through -PDO and El  Nino southern stream trying to assert itself. So probably a different solution each run next several days. Models don’t handle competing influences very well.

[Allsnow]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models are really struggling with the split flow and it may be a while before they get the pattern correct. La Niña background lingering through -PDO and El  Nino southern stream trying to assert itself. So probably a different solution each run next several days. Models don’t handle competing influences very well.

Euro slowed the northern stream enough this run to bring  rain Saturday like the rest of the models. If true, the airmass behind that might be the city’s next shot at 32 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro slowed the northern stream enough this run to bring  rain Saturday like the rest of the models. If true, the airmass behind that might be the city’s next shot at 32 

I am thinking we would need a full phase to draw down enough cold air behind that system for a freeze in NYC. Models like the ICON and GFS keep the streams slightly separate. So no freeze in NYC.

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am thinking we would need a full phase to draw down enough cold air behind that system for a freeze in NYC. Models like the ICON and GFS keep the streams slightly separate. So no freeze in NYC.

Eps went towards the full phase idea but I’m skeptical 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eps went towards the full phase idea but I’m skeptical 

Yeah, always weary to buy into Euro phases when it can be over amped at times. I would love to see some phases with the southern stream. It would tell us that the northern stream isn’t as overpowering as recent years. But the southern stream has been getting suppressed in these split flow patterns. We need a change from the cutter hugger,  and southern stream suppression storm tracks. Bring back that epic benchmark pattern from 2013 to 2018. 

[MJO812]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models are really struggling with the split flow and it may be a while before they get the pattern correct. La Niña background lingering through -PDO and El  Nino southern stream trying to assert itself. So probably a different solution each run next several days. Models don’t handle competing influences very well.

Pretty nice runs going forward even with the ensembles.  Maybe winter will be here early this year.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

I don't get this doom and gloom. Maybe it is because I'm much further north, but November has been great up here. We were down to the low 20s and nothing but a few days scream really warm. Even a degree warmer or so over average can and does produce around here. I don't think we are looking at another snowless winter. It is very difficult to put up winters with less that 10 inches of snow across most of the subforum, just like it is very difficult to produce winters with 50+ inches across the whole subforum. Calm down. It is November 13th, and it was beautiful and COLD this morning. 

Simple. I have tropical plants on campus on the uws that are still thriving. The urban heat island has been killing marginal events for years, and it’s only getting worse. If you took a campus tour right now and you had no idea what time of year it was I could convince you it was early October.

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Pretty nice runs going forward even with the ensembles.  Maybe winter will be here early this year.

These kind of run to run jumps don’t inspire a lot of confidence. The split flow is taking its toll on the EPS. Just give me a clean pattern without competing influences.

 

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These kind of run to run jumps don’t inspire a lot of confidence. The split flow is taking its toll on the EPS. Just give me a clean pattern without competing influences.

 

Yep

Complete flip for the ensembles going forward

[Tatamy]

7 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Been the pattern for years now. Go west if you want winter for thanksgiving this year 

We were out in CO on vacation in September.  We spent a day near Aspen and were up on a hill and saw my first cat paws of the season on the windshield during a rain shower.  Even in the daytime it struggled to reach 60.  Being near 10K feet above sea level will get you that.  I know they have already had accumulating snow in the Denver area.

[Tatamy]

6 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Vortex record strong going into December is not great for a snowy start. My bet would be that any changes we would see will be when that starts to weaken towards the starts of January 

We are going to need an SSW event in order to get the cold air needed down here for significant snow.  For now, in spite of the record strong vortex the models just keep printing more fantasy maps.  As they say delayed but not denied…  

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m fully in that camp, let the cold air build over the pole and send it down (hopefully on our side of the world after the new year) pretty typical nino forecast. I don’t think this winter will full on rat, but I do believe there will be lots of talk of it ratting after December. 

don’t write off this December. This is not a typical Nino yet. Adjusted for climate change over the last 30 years, This fall has been pretty cool. No typical nino warmth. None in sight…yet.

 

Sept AN by a decimal. Oct AN by 2 and change. Nov so far Normal. I wouldnt bet on a +5 for Dec. Lets see

 

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

don’t write off this December. This is not a typical Nino yet. Adjusted for climate change over the last 30 years, This fall has been pretty cool. No typical nino warmth. None in sight…yet.

 

Sept AN by a decimal. Oct AN by 2 and change. Nov so far Normal. I wouldnt bet on a +5 for Dec. Lets see

 

Agree

Whoever is writing off December now is foolish. 

[SACRUS]

 

51 today after low of 24 and now back to 39 already.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 74 (1931)
NYC: 73 (1931)
LGA: 70 (1964)


Lows:

EWR: 22 (2019)
NYC: 23 (2019)
LGA: 24 (2019)

 

Historical:

 

1833: In 1833, observers were familiar with the Leonid meteor shower, but the event that year was very intense and leads to the first formulation of a theory on the origin of meteors. By some estimates, the 1833 Leonid meteor shower had 240,000 meteors in a nine-hour period.

1906 - The mercury soared to 106 degrees at Craftonville, CA, a November record for the U.S. (The Weather Channel)

 

1946: General Electric scientists produced snow in the Massachusetts Berkshires in the first modern-day cloud seeding experiment. Scientist Vincent Schaefer dropped six pounds of dry ice pellets into a cloud over Pittsfield, MA. The cloud seeding experiment produced snowfall, as a 4-mile long cloud was converted into snow flurries. The success of the experiment became the basis of many weather modification projects.

1959 - Between Noon on the 11th and Noon on the 12th, a winter storm buried Helena, MT, under 21.5 inches of snow, which surpassed their previous 24 hour record by seven inches. (The Weather Channel)

1968 - A severe coastal storm produced high winds and record early snows from Georgia to Maine. Winds reached 90 mph in Massachusetts, and ten inches of snow blanketed interior Maine. (David Ludlum)

1974 - A great Alaska storm in the Bering Sea caused the worst coastal flooding of memory at Nome AK with a tide of 13.2 feet. The flooding caused 12 million dollars damage, however no lives are lost. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Heavy snow spread across much of New England. Totals in Massachusetts ranged up to 14 inches in Plymouth County. The seven inch total at the Logan Airport in Boston was their highest of record for so early in the season, and the 9.7 inch total at Providence RI was a record for November. Roads were clogged with traffic and made impassable as snowplow operators were caught unprepared for the early season snowstorm. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Bovina MS. Morning thunderstorms drenched Atlanta TX with more than four inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thirty-three cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 70s and 80s from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast Region. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Scottsbluff NE was a record for November, and highs of 76 degrees at Rapid City SD and 81 degrees at Chattanooga TN were the warmest of record for so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2003 - Thunderstorms developed in southern California and produced torrential downpours across parts of the Los Angeles area. More than 5 inches of rain fell in just 2 hours in southern Los Angeles, producing severe urban flooding. Small hail also accompanied the storms, accumulating several inches deep in some areas of the city. Nearly 115,000 electrical customers lost power as the storms affected the area (Associated Press).

[Stormlover74]

Line of showers just wet the ground. Not sure it'll be enough be the first measurable precip of the month at ewr

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

Whoever is writing off December now is foolish. 

I might be a bigger snow lover than you: the reality is, ninos are back loaded. My livelihood relies on snow for major overtime, so if it were up to me we would repeat 95/96 every year. But based ok climatology ninos are backloaded winters. I’m not saying we repeat December 15, that almost put the ski industry out of business, but let’s be realistic.