November 2023

[jm1220]

20 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I'll never forget this one.  After a week without power following Sandy, it was finally restored hours before this storm hit.  3 hours later, right after the generator was finally tucked away, the power was out *again*, only to come back on the very moment after I'd cleared a spot in the snow, rolled the generator back out, and had fired it up.  In the wind I believe I heard the weather gods mock me that night.

 

 

Seeing piles of snow on top of piles of debris in Long Beach after Sandy was quite surreal. And the house I was staying at had its power knocked out again from that freak snow too. The alternative though was the further west track that was predicted and very strong winds again (remember we were under a hurricane force wind warning, thankfully the offshore track kept that wind offshore). 

[SRRTA22]

11 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

There's a nonzero chance ewr will have no measurable precip for the first 20 days of the month

Didn't they have light rain the other night ? It was raining lightly here for a few hours and I'm right across the bay from ewr

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Didn't they have light rain the other night ? It was raining lightly here for a few hours and I'm right across the bay from ewr

Only a trace reported

[stu]

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

3 hours later, right after the generator was finally tucked away, the power was out *again*, only to come back on the very moment after I'd cleared a spot in the snow, rolled the generator back out, and had fired it up.

If there's anything I've ever learned about my 13 year old portable generator, it's that power will only come back quickly if you fire her up. The longer I leave her in the garage, the longer it will take PSE&G to fix the outage. This honestly happens nearly every time.

[coastalplainsnowman]

12 minutes ago, stu said:

If there's anything I've ever learned about my 13 year old portable generator, it's that power will only come back quickly if you fire her up. The longer I leave her in the garage, the longer it will take PSE&G to fix the outage. This honestly happens nearly every time.

Absolutely.  I call that beating Murphy's Law by playing Murphy against himself.  

[STORMANLI]

Down to 33°

[bluewave]

A warmer day coming up today with highs getting back into the low 60s as the warm front moves through this afternoon. 
 

[wdrag]

9 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I thought the raindrops felt kinda firm a few minutes ago. Good call Walt. 

None in this part of Wantage but I watched mPing a bit while baby sitting and looked like the southern edge was the NJ-NYS border.  Was less extensive than I anticipated.

 

Noticed 00z/9 EPS was better on this early mornings low temp here than the 00z/9 EC OP (32).

 

EPS has first freeze for NYC Sunday or Monday morning with 2M temps down to 28-29F. Latest MOS from the GFS is now down to 34-35 NYC.  EC-EPS has been consistent for days on near or below freezing NYC for this time frame where GFS has been warmer (I think in part due to overall 1000-500 thickness). Northerly surface wind can more easily deliver the cold with less downslope.  Maybe EPS is 2F too cold for NYC but I think NYC should get down to 30-32F on one of those two days.  Blend of models from NWS has 37.  Interesting differences.

Checked extended EPS GEFS and the option looks pretty good for 65-70F on one or more of the days 11/17-19.

[gravitylover]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

None in this part of Wantage but I watched mPing a bit while baby sitting and looked like the southern edge was the NJ-NYS border.  Was less extensive than I anticipated.

It was super light. I wouldn't even have known if I hadn't looked at the light just right and then put a piece of dark metal down to see the micro pellets bounce. I'm betting most observers would've missed it. 

[the_other_guy]

13 minutes ago, wdrag said:

None in this part of Wantage but I watched mPing a bit while baby sitting and looked like the southern edge was the NJ-NYS border.  Was less extensive than I anticipated.

 

Noticed 00z/9 EPS was better on this early mornings low temp here than the 00z/9 EC OP (32).

 

EPS has first freeze for NYC Sunday or Monday morning with 2M temps down to 28-29F. Latest MOS from the GFS is now down to 34-35 NYC.  EC-EPS has been consistent for days on near or below freezing NYC for this time frame where GFS has been warmer (I think in part due to overall 1000-500 thickness). Northerly surface wind can more easily deliver the cold with less downslope.  Maybe EPS is 2F too cold for NYC but I think NYC should get down to 30-32F on one of those two days.  Blend of models from NWS has 37.  Interesting differences.

Checked extended EPS GEFS and the option looks pretty good for 65-70F on one or more of the days 11/17-19.

I was in the Foodtown parking lot and was also hit with it around 635pm last night. I dismissed it. Hastings on Hudson

[Rjay]

4 hours ago, STORMANLI said:

Down to 33°

After a low of 35 I'm up to 50

[qg_omega]

On 11/7/2023 at 7:34 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures rose into the 60s across the region today. However, parts of the Plains States saw monthly record highs. Monthly records included: Amarillo: 88°; Borger, TX: 91°; Childress, TX: 94°; Gage, OK: 93°; Hollis, OK: 95°; Vernon, TX: 92°; and, Wichita Falls, TX: 90°.

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler before milder air returns on Thursday.

Afterward, a strong cold front, perhaps preceded by some showers, will bring a period of colder weather to the region. Overall, the first 10-14 days of November remains on track for a cold anomaly.

The long-range guidance is continuing to move into consensus that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway.

The SOI was -18.71 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.580 today.

On November 3 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.122 (RMM). The November 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.310 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.8° (0.2° below normal).

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.8° (0.2° below normal).

Time will tell but I have a hard time seeing how November doesn’t finish at least 1 degree above normal if not more

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, wdrag said:

None in this part of Wantage but I watched mPing a bit while baby sitting and looked like the southern edge was the NJ-NYS border.  Was less extensive than I anticipated.

 

Noticed 00z/9 EPS was better on this early mornings low temp here than the 00z/9 EC OP (32).

 

EPS has first freeze for NYC Sunday or Monday morning with 2M temps down to 28-29F. Latest MOS from the GFS is now down to 34-35 NYC.  EC-EPS has been consistent for days on near or below freezing NYC for this time frame where GFS has been warmer (I think in part due to overall 1000-500 thickness). Northerly surface wind can more easily deliver the cold with less downslope.  Maybe EPS is 2F too cold for NYC but I think NYC should get down to 30-32F on one of those two days.  Blend of models from NWS has 37.  Interesting differences.

Checked extended EPS GEFS and the option looks pretty good for 65-70F on one or more of the days 11/17-19.

The ICON looks like a compromise solution. Colder in the suburbs than the GFS. But a more defined UHI effect in NYC than the Euro. So NYC lows around 34° With the first freeze having to wait a while longer.

 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  47degs.(42/52) or -2.

Reached 52 here yesterday.

Today: 60-62, wind variable e.>se.>w., clearing late, 45 tomorrow AM.

53*(58%RH) here at 6am.

[MJO812]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ICON looks like a compromise solution. Colder in the suburbs than the GFS. But a more defined UHI effect in NYC than the Euro. So NYC lows around 34° With the first freeze having to wait a while longer.

 

 

Very sad

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very sad

It’s good if you want to extend the growing season around NYC. Drove down to Long Island over the weekend and the mums are still going strong. Even saw some tomato plants which didn’t look damaged by the recent freeze in spots. So that suburban freeze last week was probably of too short a duration to have much effect with how warm the fall has been to date. Even saw garden centers still selling mums last weekend. Not sure who will buy them this late but it was interesting to see.

 

 

[Brian5671]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s good if you want to extend the growing season around NYC. Drove down to Long Island over the weekend and the mums are still going strong. Even saw some tomato plants which didn’t look damaged by the recent freeze in spots. So that suburban freeze last week was probably of too short a duration to have much effect with how warm the fall has been to date. Even saw garden centers still selling mums last weekend. Not sure who will buy them this late but it was interesting to see.

 

 

Problem with that is that there is too little sunlight hours/strength of sun this time of year-so while the growing season might be extended, the plants tend to stop flowering or just look sad waiting for a "mercy kill" from a frost/freeze...

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Problem with that is that there is too little sunlight hours/strength of sun this time of year-so while the growing season might be extended, the plants tend to stop flowering or just look sad waiting for a "mercy kill" from a frost/freeze...

It’s nice if you like the natural beauty of flowering plants like mums which are very hearty. All the outdoor landscaping with mums and ornamental cabbages looked great back on Long Island this weened. Even the landscaping around the ferry terminal in Bridgeport looked great. 

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s nice if you like the natural beauty of flowering plants like mums which are very hearty. All the outdoor landscaping with mums and ornamental cabbages looked great back on Long Island this weened. Even the landscaping around the ferry terminal in Bridgeport looked great. 

Yeah mums do well this time of year regardless...I have a display on my porch that usually is good until around Thanksgiving....

[SACRUS]

 

35 to 50 but clouds/low clouds hanging tough. Same story enough sun gets the warmer spots mid/upper 60s,  near/low 70s C/SNJ or shve off 4-8 if clouds hold longer which looks likely.  Nov 11 - 14 chill down, Nov 15 - Nov 25 overall warm - much above normal.

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 77 (2020)
NYC: 75 (2020)
LGA: 78 (2020)


Lows:

EWR: 23 (1976)
NYC: 24 (1976)
LGA: 27 (1971)

Historical:

 

1864: On Election Night, a violent tornado strikes a ferry on the Mississippi River near Chester, Illinois, blowing away all but the hull. The boiler and engines are found up the bluff. Half of Chester was destroyed, and twenty died during the storm.

1913 - The freshwater fury , a rapidly deepening cyclone, caused unpredicted gales on the Great Lakes. Eight large ore carriers on Lake Erie sank drowning 270 sailors. Cleveland OH reported 17.4 inches of snow in 24 hours, and a total of 22.2 inches, both all-time records for that location. During the storm, winds at Cleveland averaged 50 mph, with gusts to 79 mph. The storm produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Buffalo NY, and buried Pickens WV under three feet of snow. (9th-11th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1926 - A tornado in Charles County of southern Maryland killed seventeen persons. (The Weather Channel)

1926: An estimated F3 to F4 tornado tore through La Plata, Maryland, killing 14 individuals at a small school. This storm caused 17 deaths and injured 65 others.

1982 - Seven tornadoes touched down in southern California, three of which began as waterspouts. The waterspouts moved ashore at Point Mugu, Malibu, and Long Beach. The Long Beach tornado traveled inland ten miles causing much damage. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Showers and gusty winds associated with a cold front helped extinguish forest fires in the Appalachian Region and clear out smoke in the eastern U.S. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains from eastern Texas to the Tennessee Valley. Longview TX received 3.12 inches of rain, including two inches in two hours, Tupelo MS was soaked with 2.80 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a strong cold front produced severe weather from eastern Oklahoma to central Indiana. Hail more than two inches in diameter was reported around Tulsa OK. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - High winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the Rockies from the afternoon of the 8th into the early morning hours of the 9th. Winds of 50 to 80 mph prevailed across the northwest chinook area of Wyoming, with gusts to 100 mph. Winds in Colorado gusted to 97 mph at Fritz Peak (located near Rollinsville) the evening of the 8th, and early in the morning on the 9th, gusted to 78 mph west of Fort Collins. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1996 - The Veteran's Day storm of November 9-14, 1996 may be the most severe early season lake effect snow (LES) storm the Great Lakes has witnessed in the past fifty years. At the height of the storm, over 160,000 customers were without power in Greater Cleveland alone, as the storm produced isolated snowfall tallies approaching 70 . As usual with these LES events, the Veteran's Day storm battered snowbelt communities downwind of each of the Great Lakes while nearby towns went unscathed. (University of Illimois WW2010)

[lee59]

Snowing in N.H.

 

https://whitemountains.tv/live-cam-north-conway-village-nh/

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The ICON looks like a compromise solution. Colder in the suburbs than the GFS. But a more defined UHI effect in NYC than the Euro. So NYC lows around 34° With the first freeze having to wait a while longer.

 

 

Won’t happen until December if they fail late this weekend 

[MJO812]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/11/09/washington-dc-winter-forecast-snow/?fbclid=IwAR0YzdgU214HjWSjzQa_5Yfkr7gRHX54IE2-teeTnMyGaGVMn3hRXZogaiU

[SACRUS]

Sun to about TTN so far - clearing advancing north a bit now

 

[Allsnow]

Euro has 29 for a low at ewr Sunday 

[winterwx21]

14 hours ago, MANDA said:

NJ October weather Summary:

https://www.njweather.org/content/tranquility-october-2023-recap

Seems like November continues the trend of October.   Zzzzzzzz for at least the next week to 10 days.  Nothing resembling a good cold shot in our immediate future that's for sure.

 

Yep October and November are usually boring weather months around here. Not much interesting stuff to talk about. Hopefully it will pick up in December. It would be nice to have an early snowfall this season. 

[Dark Star]

Hurrican season ending soon.  NOAA increased their original forecast for the number of storms based on the water temperature.  I wonder what the latest tally is vs. the number of storms predicted?

[Stormlover74]

I hate these cloudy "warm" days. I'll take sunny and 48 any day over this

[FPizz]

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I hate these cloudy "warm" days. I'll take sunny and 48 any day over this

looks like some sun coming soon.  cloudy and 52 for now