November 2023

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The question for the upcoming winter has always been whether we'd get cold enough, not whether we'd get a good storm track happening. Now we're without the storm track as well.

WX/PT

[gravitylover]

.25 this morning and it's still raining but probably nearly over. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  50degs.(44/55) or +1.

Reached 58 here yesterday.

Today: 65-69, wind w.-breezy, scattered clouds, 44 tomorrow AM.

58*(77%RH) here at 6am.      65* at 4pm.

 

[wdrag]

This part of nw NJ...Wantage 0.18, mostly after midnight and from what I can tell CP measured as well as all of northern LI. 

Think we need to be cautious about dry weather Friday night-early next week.  Short wave passage just south of us early Saturday might graze LI, and another apparently intensifying short wave for Tuesday morning, could lay down a few flakes of snow nw edge of the area (sleet possible north edge of the NYC subforum tomorrow night too?).

Sandwiched in there somewhere is the possibility of NYC CP first Freeze between Sunday-Wednesday mornings.

Took a look at the longer range ridge and anomalous warmth in the modeling roughly Nov 17-21... yes record warmth possible but right now the EPS 2m temps don't exceed 60, equaling low-mid 60s highs, below the record of low-mid 70s that period. So, within range if climo and model dispersion is capping max's in the EPS. Certainly warmer than normal. 

[bluewave]

HRRR has us getting warm sectored to around 70° today.

[Maureen]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

HRRR has us getting warm sectored to around 70° today.

Feels much warmer here right now than mid 50s with this humidity. 

[bluewave]

Just now, Maureen said:

Feels much warmer here right now than mid 50s with this humidity. 

February 2015 was our biggest outlier month since 2010.

 

[SACRUS]

 

45 to 51. Clouds and some showers moving/ed through northern areas.  Warm today mid - upper 60s,enough sun gets the warm spots to 70.  Near normal next 2-3 days.    Nov 11 - Nov 13 chills down perhaps as cold or colder than the Oct 31-Nov 3 period.  Nov 14 into the closing week of Nov much warmer.  Beyond there perhaps back to cooler period, overall warm next two weeks or so.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 81 (2022)
NYC: 78 (1938)
LGA: 78 (2022)

Lows:

EWR: 28 (1931)
NYC: 29 (1930)
LGA: 32 (1972)

Historical:

1940 - The Galloping Gertie bridge at Tacoma, WA, collapsed in strong winds resulting in a six million dollar loss, just four months after the grand opening of the new bridge. The winds caused the evenly sized spans of the bridge to begin to vibrate until the central one finally collapsed. From that point on bridges were constructed with spans of varying size. (David Ludlum)

1940: The Tacoma Narrows Bridge opened on July 1st, 1940, spanned the Puget Sound from Gig Harbor to Tacoma. At the time of the opening, the bridge was the third-longest suspension bridge in the world, covering nearly 6,000 feet. Before the bridge opened, high winds would cause the bridge to move vertically, giving the nickname Galloping Gertie. On this day in 1940, winds of 40 mph caused the bridge to collapse because of the physical phenomenon known as aeroelastic flutter. 

1951 - At 7 AM a blinding flash, a huge ball of fire, and a terrific roar occurred over parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, caused by a disintegrating meteor. Windows were broken in and near Hinton OK by the concussion. (The Weather Channel)

 

1957: A historic tornado outbreak impacted southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Ten people were killed.

1986 - An early season blizzard struck the Northern Plains Region. North Dakota took the brunt of the storm with wind gusts to 70 mph, and snowfall totals ranged up to 25 inches at Devils Lake. (Storm Data)

1987 - Heavy snow fell across parts of eastern New York State overnight, with twelve inches reported at the town of Piseco, located in the Mohawk Valley. A storm in the southwestern U.S. left nine inches of snow at the Winter Park ski resort in Colorado. Smoke from forest fires reduced visibilities to less than a mile at some locations from North Carolina to Ohio and Pennsylvania. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather continued across the state of Texas. Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Waco and Del Rio with readings of 92 degrees. McAllen was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 96 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Shortly after daybreak strong thunderstorms developed over a narrow, but almost stationary, east-west band across New Orleans, in southeastern Louisiana. As a result, heavy rains persisted over the same area until mid afternoon before tapering off, and triggered flash flooding across a five county area. Eight to twelve inch rains deluged the area between 9 AM and 6 PM, and totals for the 48 hour period ending at 7 AM on the 8th ranged up to 19.78 inches, between Lake Lexy and Lake Borgne. Approximately 6000 homes in the area reported water damage. The rainfall total for November of 19.81 inches at New Orleans was their highest total for any given month of the year. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2011: A powerful storm system moving through the southern Great Plains produced tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and flooding across parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas on November 7-8, 2011. The system initially produced numerous thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding over portions of south-central Oklahoma during the late evening of November 6th and early morning of November 7th. Rainfall totals of 5-9 inches were reported across Jefferson, Carter, and Murray counties. 

 

2012: A Nor’Easter brought several inches of snow to the Northeast. Snowfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches were typical with locally higher amounts.

[lee59]

52 minutes ago, bluewave said:

February 2015 was our biggest outlier month since 2010.

 

Interesting how the average annual snowfall is higher now than around 1900 (like here) do to the higher amount of yearly precipitation. Of course if the temps keep rising that will eventually bring snow fall rates down.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Interesting how the average annual snowfall is higher now than around 1900 (like here) do to the higher amount of yearly precipitation. Of course if the temps keep rising that will eventually bring snow fall rates down.

Some of that is related to measuring snow differently now than we did back then. But the 09-10 to 17-18 snowfall was probably a 100 year event for rarity. We seem to be settling into a lower baseline since 18-19 than that epic period for snowfall. But we can still sneak in decent seasons with great snowstorms like 20-21 or January 22.

https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history

[Stormlover74]

Still overcast and in the 50s

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

Interesting how the average annual snowfall is higher now than around 1900 (like here) do to the higher amount of yearly precipitation. Of course if the temps keep rising that will eventually bring snow fall rates down.

I think the recent snowfall totals are more similar to what they were long ago with a dip having occurred in between.

I'm not confident that the recent snowfall averages are higher than in 1900.  There aren't enough reliable records with comparable observation techniques outside of possibly a few urban areas, but snowfall seems to have been higher then too.  Although snowfall 125 years ago was roughly similar to now, it was definitely colder then. 

Average snowfall over the past couple of decades has definitely been more than it was a half century ago.  It's unclear if the lower snowfall years of particularly the 70s and 80s were random or part of a cycle that was separate from (or overlayed with) general climate change.  The same could be argued about the recent spike in snowfall although the CC relationship seems more compelling now.

So, are the feast or famine winters going to continue, or will there be more famine?

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Still overcast and in the 50s

Global’s have been to aggressive with these warm front this fall 

[psv88]

63 here but cloudy. Upton still says mostly sunny. Don’t see it happening 

[psv88]

0.08 of rain this morning. 
 

was 79 last year on this date 

[Allsnow]

First frz potential for the metro areas Monday morning 

[North and West]

14 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

The question for the upcoming winter has always been whether we'd get cold enough, not whether we'd get a good storm track happening. Now we're without the storm track as well.

WX/PT

Don't we usually wait until Thanksgiving to cancel winter? 

[the_other_guy]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

First frz potential for the metro areas Monday morning 

almost all of us have gone below freezing already. It’s really down to a few counties. Best of luck, because if not Monday it’s gonna be a while. 

 

Now brilliant sunshine, but a little bit too late for the run at 70

[North and West]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

First frz potential for the metro areas Monday morning 

Haven't we frozen already? Apart from the UHI (not even AGW or anything else), we've had the opportunity to freeze. 

[Dark Star]

6 minutes ago, North and West said:

Don't we usually wait until Thanksgiving to cancel winter? 

Depends what the tea leaves read...

[Stormlover74]

Sunny 63 now. Maybe get to 67 but it'll be dark in 2 hours so probably not

[Allsnow]

47 minutes ago, North and West said:

Haven't we frozen already? Apart from the UHI (not even AGW or anything else), we've had the opportunity to freeze. 

The major reporting stations still looking for their first freeze 

[the_other_guy]

39 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The major reporting stations still looking for their first freeze 

The only stations waiting on that are in city. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

The only stations waiting on that are in city. 

Huh? 
 

 

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The only stations waiting on that are in city. 

Urban and coastal stations still haven’t had their first freeze.

NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	38
NY	PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL	ICAO	38
NY	MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	37
NY	ORIENT POINT STATE PARK	COOP	36
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	35
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	35
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	34
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	34
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	33
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	33
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	33
NY	MOUNT SINAI	COOP	33

[psv88]

48 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The only stations waiting on that are in city. 

Tererboro and Newark are in the city? 

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sunny 63 now. Maybe get to 67 but it'll be dark in 2 hours so probably not

We probably would have hit 70 here today had the clouds not hung on so long. The sun did come out in time to pop me up to a high temp of 66 here. 

We'll see if we get another shot at 70 after the cool period this weekend into early next week. Looks like some 65 to 70 degree weather is possible in the 16th to 18th period. 

[NorthShoreWx]

9 hours ago, wdrag said:

This part of nw NJ...Wantage 0.18, mostly after midnight and from what I can tell CP measured as well as all of northern LI. 

Think we need to be cautious about dry weather Friday night-early next week.  Short wave passage just south of us early Saturday might graze LI, and another apparently intensifying short wave for Tuesday morning, could lay down a few flakes of snow nw edge of the area (sleet possible north edge of the NYC subforum tomorrow night too?).

Sandwiched in there somewhere is the possibility of NYC CP first Freeze between Sunday-Wednesday mornings.

Took a look at the longer range ridge and anomalous warmth in the modeling roughly Nov 17-21... yes record warmth possible but right now the EPS 2m temps don't exceed 60, equaling low-mid 60s highs, below the record of low-mid 70s that period. So, within range if climo and model dispersion is capping max's in the EPS. Certainly warmer than normal. 

0.10" rainfall in N Smithtown this morning.

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Urban and coastal stations still haven’t had their first freeze.

NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	38
NY	PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL	ICAO	38
NY	MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	37
NY	ORIENT POINT STATE PARK	COOP	36
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	35
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	35
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	34
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	34
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	33
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	33
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	33
NY	MOUNT SINAI	COOP	33

Surprised about Westhampton, they usually drop huge with radiational cooling. Maybe there were lots of clouds. A little surprised about Teterboro also.