wdrag Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 Hopes for the first measurable snow of the 23-24 cool season for at least interior sections, and when will the first freeze occur at the various climate sites? Added the CPC October 19th November Outlook (click for clarity), to be verified on December 1, as we will do the same for October on November 1. Reliability for the 4 week period with 6 week notice is challenging. Let's see what happens with these monthly outlooks. Verification added on December 3... basically looks a little weak on skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Well, howdy there... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 38 minutes ago, TriPol said: Well, howdy there... Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 44 minutes ago, TriPol said: Well, howdy there... This event has been appearing on some operational runs and on some ensemble members for days now. The Euro had it at 0z as well. I will describe it for what it is which is a talking point for now. In any case there is the potential for an early season elevation event for areas well inland as we go through next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, Tatamy said: This event has been appearing on some operational runs and on some ensemble members for days now. The Euro had it at 0z as well. I will describe it for what it is which is a talking point for now. In any case there is the potential for an early season elevation event for areas well inland as we go through next week. If it can happen here on the coast in November 2018 and Oct 2011 it can definitely happen in the mountains this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 14 hours ago, jm1220 said: If it can happen here on the coast in November 2018 and Oct 2011 it can definitely happen in the mountains this year. And also November 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 3 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Kinda fits with that run posted in the other thread with the big storm running out of the Gulf, across FL then up the coast (plastering us up here as it leaves) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 18 hours ago, Allsnow said: Yeah but then is it right to PAC puke? Or does is remain sustained? Would pay for another November 2014 at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 47 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Yeah but then is it right to PAC puke? Or does is remain sustained? Would pay for another November 2014 at this point Looks to stay at or below normal until mid month…lots of blocking up top. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 The 0z ICON now has a legitimate far interior snowstorm for Wed - Wed night. Mixing to NW suburbs. Also a significant shift towards a storm on the 0z GFS. Most guidance has been ticking deeper, sharper, and further southwest with the approaching shortwave for the past several runs. Even if frozen precipitation stays far to our north, this is a very trackable winter storm. If the 0z ICON or even 12z/18z ECM is close to being correct, this could be a decent snowstorm for elevated spots in the Catskills and Taconics. And there's still time for this to continue evolving. The GFS still has further to come... the UKMET I think as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 The trend towards a higher impact coastal storm on Wed. continues with the 0z CMC. The cold pool aloft on that run now almost passes overhead. A quick glance at those charts in any winter month and you would think this was a snowstorm for NEPA, NNJ, SENY, CT. It's really only the surface to near 925mb that's a problem. Even the City would probably be upper 30s in steady precipitation. Highly trackable event after a long break from winter. Good 0z so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 11 hours ago, Allsnow said: Looks to stay at or below normal until mid month…lots of blocking up top. I don't want to waste the cool/cold air in the fall but hopefully we will have some in winter to work with also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 28, 2023 Author Share Posted October 28, 2023 Not yet buying into the EC-GEM-UKMET cold precip scenario for Wednesday morning in our NYC subforum. Mainly using what happens here Sunday-tomorrow, as a marker for what happens here regarding the fast moving coastal option for early Wednesday. For now, imo, its the GFS NO vs the EC-GEM-UKMET-WPC wet (or elevation wet white) scenario for early Wednesday. I probably won't have opportunity to comment again til early Sunday. 10/28 639A based on 00z-06z/28 cycles including ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 29, 2023 Author Share Posted October 29, 2023 13 hours ago, wdrag said: Not yet buying into the EC-GEM-UKMET cold precip scenario for Wednesday morning in our NYC subforum. Mainly using what happens here Sunday-tomorrow, as a marker for what happens here regarding the fast moving coastal option for early Wednesday. For now, imo, its the GFS NO vs the EC-GEM-UKMET-WPC wet (or elevation wet white) scenario for early Wednesday. I probably won't have opportunity to comment again til early Sunday. 10/28 639A based on 00z-06z/28 cycles including ensembles. Still no change from my view to the above based on the 12-18z/28 ops. I think EC is fading for early Wednesday, and so lthat eaves the Canadian still tying to hit us, and missing us early Wed and missing LI Sunday. I don't think the Canadian will be correct. fwiw... showers all the way from nw of Scranton (Justus-Roba Family Farms) to Branchville NJ this past afternoon. RRFS/HRRR best modeling and mainly shorter term. temps dropped 13F out there between Noon and 430P near Scranton PA higher terrain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 29, 2023 Author Share Posted October 29, 2023 I think models are trying to say too far offshore for Wednesday (still tbd), but the CMCE and EPS still want to try for trace-1/2" snow cover New England-Catskills. Strong short wave no doubt, so I can see a band or two of snow showers Pocs/Catskils/nw NJ but not biting on anything significant yet for high terrain roads out there. Otherwise, no large snow threats looming, in my mind, prior to Nov 8. After that, chilly rain possible around the 9th-10th. As far as weekends go for the NYC subforum, a fast moving trough next Sunday might yield a band of light showers? Am not so hot on this as have been for today's action, whatever that may be. 00z/29 24 hr qpf ensembles as seen on tropical tidbits are very very weak on the next Sunday idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 Good chance of some snow even for the coast in November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 29, 2023 Author Share Posted October 29, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Good chance of some snow even for the coast in November Might be...looks can are deceiving beyond 3 days but certainly. colder than normal first 11 days of the month. First freeze of the season this Thursday or Friday morning some of our interior CLI sites that Bluewave posted last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Lock in that storm in the weenie gfs range ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: ? Nice weenie storm on the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 9 hours ago, wdrag said: Might be...looks can are deceiving beyond 3 days but certainly. colder than normal first 11 days of the month. First freeze of the season this Thursday or Friday morning some of our interior CLI sites that Bluewave posted last week. My suspicion is that we may see additional storm threats pop up in the shorter ranges (3-5 days) as we head into late fall and winter. We'll see. Regardless of precipitation type. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 30, 2023 Author Share Posted October 30, 2023 Looking ahead: Yes I can see snow showers early Wednesday coating the Catskills/Litchfield Hills and maybe some Poconos above 1000 feet with 0.1 to 1" associated with the strong cold short wave (represented by the 5H vort max) passage. Should be some snow showers to track up there. Next Sunday the 5th might produce a band of showers for us in NYC. At this time not guaranteeing a dry weekend but the probability of rain is still rather low. Late next week Nov 8-11. Models confused on short wave dominance and trough location but interesting, with the result, a small potential first 32F NYC if the surface wind is due north (350-360 degrees). Just too far away to know how next week plays. At least early November shows some marginal interest in winter weather. Will post, if no one else does, the USA entire 31 day of October above-below normal T and Percent above/below normal precip. Probably won't happen till late Wed or Thursday from me. I'll also want that attached to the CPC outlook on p1 of the October thread. That's how I can gain confidence on reliability of long ranging. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Sort of a mixed bag going forward. Back and forth between cooler and warmer days with neutral PNA. Wouldn't be surprised to see 70F this weekend though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 On 10/25/2023 at 3:03 PM, TriPol said: Well, howdy there... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 18 minutes ago, forkyfork said: Gfs > Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 31, 2023 Author Share Posted October 31, 2023 Good Halloween morning all! I hope it's good. Just a minor heads up for ne PA, Northern NJ northward for tomorrow morning-Nov 1. You may run into snow showers or a rain-snow shower mix, mainly high terrain Poconos-Catskills-Litchfield Hills, Berkshires and Worcester Hills. Could be a slight slushy accum on some high terrain roads (inch or less) and that mainly above 1000 feet, with coverings on the grass even down into northern and eastern Sussex County NJ to just north and west of NYC. Also fairly obvious that while our first freeze in the interior has been delayed two weeks later than average, there is little doubt that it will occur this Wednesday-Thursday-Friday mornings. Take in those dahlia bulbs and portect your favorites. 644A/31 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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