Doramo Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 4 hours ago, StormChazer said: All 3 models agreeing on a system swinging through next weekend. Euro and Canadian say snow, GFS says no. Just rain. GFS continues to bomb out around the 10th with that storm. That is a ways out yet so maybe the cold will coincide with the moisture . I hope, I hope, I hope . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 I'm gonna do some reverse psychology and say its gonna do the magic vanishing act around 100 hours out when the NAM comes into range. lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Once we get past the 4th of January, the pattern looks to get more active. Can’t wait to see how this develops. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, rockchalk83 said: Once we get past the 4th of January, the pattern looks to get more active. Can’t wait to see how this develops. Yeah, Jan looks really active. Just need spacing for moisture return and the storms to be a bit farther south. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Looks like some snow or snow to rain for some folks on Friday morning with a weakening system and a bigger system on Monday-Tues (8th and 9th) which is still uncertain. And probably more systems after that to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 58 minutes ago, JoMo said: Looks like some snow or snow to rain for some folks on Friday morning with a weakening system and a bigger system on Monday-Tues (8th and 9th) which is still uncertain. And probably more systems after that to watch. Definitely looks like we **could** have a decent event here in SC Kansas. Local NWS mentioning a cooling trend in the temp profile and models seem to be latching onto a weak TROWAL signature. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Well the 00z GFS at hour 162 is certainly something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 That would likely be close to blizzard conditions for SW MO. Temps are very borderline though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 21 minutes ago, MUWX said: That would likely be close to blizzard conditions for SW MO. Temps are very borderline though. BRB shoveling my 32" of digital snow through Jan 15th. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, JoMo said: BRB shoveling my 32" of digital snow through Jan 15th. 39.9 for me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 6 hours ago, rockchalk83 said: Definitely looks like we **could** have a decent event here in SC Kansas. Local NWS mentioning a cooling trend in the temp profile and models seem to be latching onto a weak TROWAL signature. We'll see. Yeah, but I worry about how fast the system falls apart with those marginal temps. Someone might get a good burst of snow but the farther east you go, the less of a chance that is. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 hours ago, JoMo said: BRB shoveling my 32" of digital snow through Jan 15th. Digital snow lol that's definitely a new slang wx term for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Model consensus seems to be giving Tulsa around 2-3 inches. No TV Mets really biting on it though(surprisingly). I think our wet bulb will be low enough that we can accumulate despite ground temps. I think someone is going to get a surprise half a foot of snow from this, just not sure who. Maybe Stillwater? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18z HRRR was pretty juicy. 1-3” inches through OK into Western/NW AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 42 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 18z HRRR was pretty juicy. 1-3” inches through OK into Western/NW AR. Indeed, and the back side of the low is still moving through the area, dropping maybe another inch. 4 inches on that run for Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, The Waterboy said: 18z HRRR was pretty juicy. 1-3” inches through OK into Western/NW AR. I wouldn't rule out more in the higher elevation areas. (Eureka Springs, Harrison) Those areas tend to overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Today's model trends are pretty incredible for the Southern Plains next week. Early week is analogous to 12/24/2009 with a very dynamic storm and enough cold air for possible blizzard conditions for N TX and OK. That is just the first in a line of storms that could lay down a thick blanket of snow all the way down the Plains. We will rapidly recover from the warm December and soon see a normal or above snowpack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Indeed its a pretty crazy flip from what we have seen so far this winter, especially with back to back systems on the long range, also reminds me of 2011. Fingers crossed it doesn't do a 180 in the next 48-72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Local weather guy says hurricane hunters are flying into the storm this afternoon and sampling it. Will be interesting to see what that data does to models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 32 minutes ago, MUWX said: Local weather guy says hurricane hunters are flying into the storm this afternoon and sampling it. Will be interesting to see what that data does to models Which storm? Been a long time since we've said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12 minutes ago, JoMo said: Which storm? Been a long time since we've said that. The Tuesday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 It's fun watching the Tues storm but man it's going to be a nail biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The GFS has storm after storm coming through our area. Canadian doesn’t look bad either. Looks like an exciting next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Lots of high latitude blocking and -EPO in the latter stages of the 00z GFS.... brrrrr cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 HRRR still wants to overperform on this upcoming weekend system. GFS, Canadian, Euro and UKMET all hitting hard for next weeks system still. Euro being the most conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but some of the models are projecting blizzard criteria conditions for early next week’s storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Interesting info in the Springfield NWS write-up overnight: Attention then turns to the next large storm system that will come through Monday through Tuesday. It is quite impressive how much agreement there has been between the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian deterministic models (and even ensembles to some degree) for such a dynamic system. A very potent deep trough will scoop through the central CONUS, forcing a deep surface low that will create moderate to heavy precipitation for much of the central and eastern US. For starters, the NAEFS/ENS ESATs prog this trough/low pair as the lowest pressure they have modeled in the last 30 years for our area at this time of year. With such a storm system, we will likely see at least minor impacts (currently 30-50% chance from the Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index). There is still uncertainty in exact track which could determine whether our impacts are mainly rain-based or snow-based. Nevertheless, the synoptic setup is continuing to match well with our Heavy Snow Climatology: ENS and GEFS member surface low locations are clustered within northern AR, the 850 mb low moves through south-central MO, and the 500 mb low is closing and extends into OK; all which match with heavy snow climatology for our area. The only difference is that we would like to see a more negatively tilted trough versus the positive tilt that is shown in many ENS/GEPS members, which may struggle to force colder air into the region for snow. At this point in time, the most likely scenario looks to be moderate rain initially within the warm-air advection regime ahead of the low, then potentially some moderate snow on the backside of the low for at least some of our CWA (more likely toward the north). Finer details will be ironed out in subsequent forecasts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 HRRR being more robust again as we approach the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Trends seem to be getting snowier for Tulsa, and NWS keeps moving their snow line in their graphic further and further south. I wouldn't be surprised if Tulsa and points east are added to the Winter Weather Advisory similar to NW AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18z coming in fairly decent for tomorrow and overnight into Saturday. I'll certainly take an upgrade from snow TV to maybe a coating. Real fun begins next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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