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MO/KS/AR/OK 2023-2024 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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  • 2 weeks later...

Well I hope everyone has enjoyed the fake spring over the past few weeks. Looks like we'll have another week or so of mild temps before the pattern begins to change. Models are starting to more consistently show a system traversing the plains this coming Saturday/Sunday, 2/10-2/11. Still lots of variability in strength and location, anywhere from Oklahoma to Nebraska. However, I think there is some merit to a fairly decent storm system as the AO index appears to be crashing negative during this timeframe. This may allow for some cold air to work with and a potentially robust system. I haven't looked far beyond this timeframe but if AO remains negative the 2nd half of Feb could lend additional opportunities for winter weather. If anything, maybe some systems to track to keep us occupied. 

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This most likely will change between now and then, but the frontogenesis progged on today's NAM runs in OK and adjacent areas is sick. There's upright and slantwise instability feeding into it, which makes sense with the intensifying and closed-off 500 mb feature. That's a good 2"+/hr TSSN signal if these amped up scenarios verify. 

image.thumb.png.6b1e18d26cdc500f42361241f715b9ab.png

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On 2/9/2024 at 7:11 PM, MoWeatherguy said:

Surprised by the lack of comments on here about this upcoming snow event.  Albeit to affect a pretty small part of this region.  Something to pay attention to, though, with some possible heavy banding. 

Eh.. for me it's the marginal temps and narrowness of the band of heavier snowfall and where that narrow band ends up. 

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We have NOTHING at 61st and Lewis in Tulsa! There was another donut of warm air directly over the city and it never really dipped below 34. Absolutely busted for the city of Tulsa again! :axe: I think this is Winter Cancel for me!

IMG_0878.png

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57 minutes ago, ouamber said:

We have NOTHING at 61st and Lewis in Tulsa! There was another donut of warm air directly over the city and it never really dipped below 34. Absolutely busted for the city of Tulsa again! :axe: I think this is Winter Cancel for me!

IMG_0878.png

Likely the result of the heat island effect. Very marginal system, where a degree or two makes all the difference

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