JoMo Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 8 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said: EURO, GFS, and CANADIAN have all latched on to some freezing rain Monday and Tuesday next week. The Canadian is obviously the most aggressive, but all three put out some significant numbers in some spots. I always worry when arctic air is retreating about a scenario like this. The Canadian is probably too cold, that seems to be a bias it has. It does look like there will be some freezing rain though but temps do look to warm for most of us by the afternoon. Maybe not for Doramo's area though. The 00z Euro did come in several degrees colder with more freezing rain. Gonna have to be watched. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Freezing rain isn't liked for those who have to drive in it but I'm retired and I don't have drive in it . I feel for those who do as it is very treacherous . But as for freezing rain it is very beautiful to see with the sun sparkling on it . But really I love freezing rain, snow, sleet. freezing fog etc. I really don't like extreme cold though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 9 hours ago, OKTWISTER said: Updated http://www.weather.gov/images/oun/graphicast/image1.png?a44dc7f95325dce9b8a06b4b1f9a045c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Heavier ice totals shifted to the north along I44 this run in the NAM. Gives Tulsa .40 inches, enough for warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 It's usually bad news if the GFS forecasts a lot of freezing rain. The NAM usually likes to overdo freezing rain QPF and/or freezing rain accumulation on ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Temps are going to be warm enough to keep it from accreting efficiently up here I think. Roads are a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 7 hours ago, MUWX said: Temps are going to be warm enough to keep it from accreting efficiently up here I think. Roads are a different story Ground temps are really cold due to the recent arctic air so it will probably accumulate pretty easily, but with southerly flow, it will eventually turn to just rain as there's no continued cold air advection feeding in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 hours ago, JoMo said: Ground temps are really cold due to the recent arctic air so it will probably accumulate pretty easily, but with southerly flow, it will eventually turn to just rain as there's no continued cold air advection feeding in. I think it’ll accumulate on roads very easily but not so much on trees or power lines. Tulsa seems to agree, which is why they are going winter storm warning instead of an ice storm warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Upgraded from a winter storm watch to an ice storm warning here. Ugh, really hope we don't get too much of this stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 55 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Upgraded from a winter storm watch to an ice storm warning here. Ugh, really hope we don't get too much of this stuff 0.25 to 0.50 with 20+ mph gusts. Yikes. Hope you don't lose power. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Yeah Dan Skoff in his FB Live Update towards the end of the video sounded quite worried about how this could potentially overperform. The AR River Valley along I-40 could really get it. https://www.facebook.com/NWAWeatherAuthority/videos/930132298622291 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, JoMo said: 0.25 to 0.50 with 20+ mph gusts. Yikes. Hope you don't lose power. Me too! All of this neighborhood I live in has underground power but a mile away everything is above ground. It's been fairly windy too, holding at 31-32 degrees all day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArkieOkie Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I work in Fort Smith, but live across the river in Oklahoma. I'm pretty confident I won't be going to work tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 hours ago, stormdragonwx said: Yeah Dan Skoff in his FB Live Update towards the end of the video sounded quite worried about how this could potentially overperform. The AR River Valley along I-40 could really get it. https://www.facebook.com/NWAWeatherAuthority/videos/930132298622291 All the main globals (GFS/Euro/GEM) are still depicting fairly large areas of moderate/heavy icing from Central OK northeast to Southern MO region tonight - Monday morning. Circulation on incoming shortwave out west (southeast of CA) on visible looks fairly potent. But the better real-time potency evidence is seeing up to 55 kts WAA flow now @ 850Mb/5 Kft on KTLX radar's VWP (Norman OK radar I believe). Given that, I wouldn't be surprised about that potential icing over-performance. Looks to be very interesting tonight/Monday up there in this topic region.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Temps are still creeping up, but so far they have pretty substantially under performed. Something to watch as the night progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Freezing rain and sleet starting in Oklahoma, with maybe a bit of drizzle/32 in Texas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I can confirm that roads are glazed over already here in Owasso, northern side of Tulsa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 freezing rain or "unknown precipitation" (possibly sleet) hitting the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Portions of SWMO upgraded to an ice storm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Drizzling here, temp went up from 30 to just over 32. Roads are fine so far but elevated stuff off the ground has a thin glaze. Temp up to 33 now, did not do much of anything here. I see more on radar getting ready to move in but thankfully so far we seemed to escape most precip. Back neighborhood roads are terrible though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Tulsa got upgraded to a warning overnight. We have quite a bit of ice at my house. The freezing rain has been steady almost all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Ozark County upgraded to winter Ice storm warning last night . Had to take my dog out to the skating rink this morning . Hadn't measured but at least 1/4" and 31° @ 9:25am . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I like what Tulsa did with the winter storm warning. From what I understand, not every office is allowed to do what they did because it’s in the trial phase but this absolutely should have been a WSW in SWMO. I haven’t seen travel impacts like this in a long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 It was a nasty overnight and early morning. Thankfully temps are creeping up. I was worried about this icing potential for several days. Was hoping it wouldn't materialize, but it did. After a massive arctic outbreak like we had, an overrunning event is always an issue. Thankfully temps stay above freezing for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 hours ago, MUWX said: I like what Tulsa did with the winter storm warning. From what I understand, not every office is allowed to do what they did because it’s in the trial phase but this absolutely should have been a WSW in SWMO. I haven’t seen travel impacts like this in a long time. Can you explain what they did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 It’s almost 5:30 and it’s still not above freezing here in Tulsa.roads are still awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Can you explain what they did? As I understand it from reading their twitter replies, they were allowed to issue Winter Storm Warnings for ice rather than having to issue Ice Storm Warnings. Their Ice Storm warnings are now being used when they expect significant infrastructure (power grid) impacts, while Winter Storm Warnings are used when the ice is "only" expected to cause major travel impacts. Here in SWMO, I figured we would have little to no issues with the power grid because air temps were pretty borderline for the entire event so most of it would not accrete on elevated surfaces. However, due to very cold ground temps, roads were super vulnerable. However, SGF does not have the ability to issue a Winter Storm Warning for Ice, so they had to decide between the advisory and an Ice Storm Warning. Based on travel impacts, I think today absolutely should have been a Winter Storm Warning, but offices are limited by the the definitions laid out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, MUWX said: As I understand it from reading their twitter replies, they were allowed to issue Winter Storm Warnings for ice rather than having to issue Ice Storm Warnings. Their Ice Storm warnings are now being used when they expect significant infrastructure (power grid) impacts, while Winter Storm Warnings are used when the ice is "only" expected to cause major travel impacts. Here in SWMO, I figured we would have little to no issues with the power grid because air temps were pretty borderline for the entire event so most of it would not accrete on elevated surfaces. However, due to very cold ground temps, roads were super vulnerable. However, SGF does not have the ability to issue a Winter Storm Warning for Ice, so they had to decide between the advisory and an Ice Storm Warning. Based on travel impacts, I think today absolutely should have been a Winter Storm Warning, but offices are limited by the the definitions laid out. Wow, I actually had no idea about all of that. Thanks for the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 What Joe Bastardi says about the rest of winter " The Worst Is Yet To Come ) (listen to the 1:17 mark) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vJlv6yzLTo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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