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MO/KS/AR/OK 2023-2024 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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8 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said:

EURO, GFS, and CANADIAN have all latched on to some freezing rain Monday and Tuesday next week. The Canadian is obviously the most aggressive, but all three put out some significant numbers in some spots. I always worry when arctic air is retreating about a scenario like this. 

The Canadian is probably too cold, that seems to be a bias it has. It does look like there will be some freezing rain though but temps do look to warm for most of us by the afternoon. Maybe not for Doramo's area though. The 00z Euro did come in several degrees colder with more freezing rain. Gonna have to be watched. 

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 Freezing rain isn't liked for those who have to drive in it but I'm retired and I don't have drive in it . I feel for those who do as it is very treacherous . But as for freezing rain it is very beautiful to see with the sun sparkling on it . But really I love freezing rain, snow, sleet. freezing fog etc. I really don't like  extreme cold though :wacko:

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7 hours ago, MUWX said:

Temps are going to be warm enough to keep it from accreting efficiently up here I think. Roads are a different story 

Ground temps are really cold due to the recent arctic air so it will probably accumulate pretty easily, but with southerly flow, it will eventually turn to just rain as there's no continued cold air advection feeding in. 

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5 hours ago, JoMo said:

Ground temps are really cold due to the recent arctic air so it will probably accumulate pretty easily, but with southerly flow, it will eventually turn to just rain as there's no continued cold air advection feeding in. 

I think it’ll accumulate on roads very easily but not so much on trees or power lines. Tulsa seems to agree, which is why they are going winter storm warning instead of an ice storm warning 

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55 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Upgraded from a winter storm watch to an ice storm warning here. Ugh, really hope we don't get too much of this stuff

0.25 to 0.50 with 20+ mph gusts. Yikes. Hope you don't lose power. 

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1 hour ago, JoMo said:

0.25 to 0.50 with 20+ mph gusts. Yikes. Hope you don't lose power. 

Me too! All of this neighborhood I live in has underground power but a mile away everything is above ground. It's been fairly windy too, holding at 31-32 degrees all day

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2 hours ago, stormdragonwx said:

Yeah Dan Skoff in his FB Live Update towards the end of the video sounded quite worried about how this could potentially overperform. The AR River Valley along I-40 could really get it. https://www.facebook.com/NWAWeatherAuthority/videos/930132298622291


All the main globals (GFS/Euro/GEM) are still depicting fairly large areas of moderate/heavy icing from Central OK northeast to Southern MO region tonight - Monday morning.

Circulation on incoming shortwave out west (southeast of CA) on visible looks fairly potent. But the better real-time potency evidence is seeing up to 55 kts WAA flow now @ 850Mb/5 Kft on KTLX radar's VWP (Norman OK radar I believe).

Given that, I wouldn't be surprised about that potential icing over-performance. Looks to be very interesting tonight/Monday up there in this topic region..

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Drizzling here, temp went up from 30 to just over 32. Roads are fine so far but elevated stuff off the ground has a thin glaze. 

Temp up to 33 now, did not do much of anything here. I see more on radar getting ready to move in but thankfully so far we seemed to escape most precip. Back neighborhood roads are terrible though

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I like what Tulsa did with the winter storm warning. From what I understand, not every office is allowed to do what they did because it’s in the trial phase but this absolutely should have been a WSW in SWMO. I haven’t seen travel impacts like this in a  long time. 

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It was a nasty overnight and early morning. Thankfully temps are creeping up. I was worried about this icing potential for several days. Was hoping it wouldn't materialize, but it did. After a massive arctic outbreak like we had, an overrunning event is always an issue. Thankfully temps stay above freezing for a while now. 

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5 hours ago, MUWX said:

I like what Tulsa did with the winter storm warning. From what I understand, not every office is allowed to do what they did because it’s in the trial phase but this absolutely should have been a WSW in SWMO. I haven’t seen travel impacts like this in a  long time. 

Can you explain what they did?

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2 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Can you explain what they did?

As I understand it from reading their twitter replies, they were allowed to issue Winter Storm Warnings for ice rather than having to issue Ice Storm Warnings. Their Ice Storm warnings are now being used when they expect significant infrastructure (power grid) impacts, while Winter Storm Warnings are used when the ice is "only" expected to cause major travel impacts. 

Here in SWMO, I figured we would have little to no issues with the power grid because air temps were pretty borderline for the entire event so most of it would not accrete on elevated surfaces. However, due to very cold ground temps, roads were super vulnerable. However, SGF does not have the ability to issue a Winter Storm Warning for Ice, so they had to decide between the advisory and an Ice Storm Warning. Based on travel impacts, I think today absolutely should have been a Winter Storm Warning, but offices are limited by the the definitions laid out. 

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1 hour ago, MUWX said:

As I understand it from reading their twitter replies, they were allowed to issue Winter Storm Warnings for ice rather than having to issue Ice Storm Warnings. Their Ice Storm warnings are now being used when they expect significant infrastructure (power grid) impacts, while Winter Storm Warnings are used when the ice is "only" expected to cause major travel impacts. 

Here in SWMO, I figured we would have little to no issues with the power grid because air temps were pretty borderline for the entire event so most of it would not accrete on elevated surfaces. However, due to very cold ground temps, roads were super vulnerable. However, SGF does not have the ability to issue a Winter Storm Warning for Ice, so they had to decide between the advisory and an Ice Storm Warning. Based on travel impacts, I think today absolutely should have been a Winter Storm Warning, but offices are limited by the the definitions laid out. 

Wow, I actually had no idea about all of that. Thanks for the info!

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