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MO/KS/AR/OK 2023-2024 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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Interesting overrunning deep convective scenario there in MO. A very good amount of strikes recorded on lightning data today progressing east through much of the southern half of the state.

I’m sure graupel and a little hail was also falling in some of the stronger storms as 700Mb (10 Kft) temps were already below 0 C this morning, and 500Mb (18 Kft) around - 20 C. Which is quite cold aloft in the mid levels for such deep convective scenario in the south.

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And the residual chilly airmass earlier today was extremely shallow with an E on the 12Z SGF (Springfield MO) upper-air sounding this morning. Mid-level lapse rates were fairly steep too (7 C/km). Which was also causing the substantial lightning activity.

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Ahh yes, the entire 240hr 12Z Euro looking nice and dry over KS. Along with some tight pressure gradients throughout, I can't wait for the forecast to be centered around elevated fire danger. sigh. This is actually right on time for peak wildfire season but really don't want to break the momentum we've built over the winter busting this drought. 

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11 hours ago, lookingnorth said:

Doesn't feel much like winter today, with much of Oklahoma getting into the upper 80s, and the southern part of the state having some areas in the 90s.


It’s been basically like that for about a week now (closer to 2 weeks of above normal temps this time of year) down here in southern TX with more unusual mid-upper level subtropical high influence nearby in Mexico. But I’m glad winter isn’t necessarily over yet for the Southern Plains into March (possibly even into late March/early April looking at recent CFS runs especially if -AO phase does indeed return), as another polar airmass intrusion all the way south to the Western Gulf is likely after tomorrow. Despite the cooling effects will only last for about 3 days down here (which is typical).

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On 2/29/2024 at 9:19 PM, MoWeatherguy said:

February going out with a little bang.   Heavy, wet snow falling out right now. 

Was sleeting really heavy here for about an hour, was crazy man! Didn't stick though cause of the warm ground temps. 

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