stormdragonwx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 47 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Well, the Euro sucks again. Watch it winds up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 NWS Tulsa just issued a Winter Storm Watch for a lot of us in NEOK and NWAR. Doesn’t include Metro Tulsa at this time. WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 20 below zero. For the Wind Chill Watch, dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as low as 20 below zero. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Latest NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GFS has forsaken us. Still not bad. I really just want 4 inches out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Maybe we'll get a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I guessing a very powdery inch, maybe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I will say if I was a kid in Little Rock I would be pretty excited about sliding down the hill in the park on Monday. I would like to think I would be a little bit happy that someone even more snow starved than me gets a decent snow. But not yet. I am still hoping for a grand reversal of trend. One more model cycle and I will wave the white flag if nothing big changes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I think modeling will keep jumping around until sometime tomorrow. It's not even onshore on the Pacific coast yet. But I do believe most of N AR OK and MO are out on anything big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I place my hope in the NAM. 00Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Man I hope something comes out of this next storm, these dusting/half inch snows are blah. Fluffy powdery snow is so much better too, fingers crossed... I'd be happy with 4 plz lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Pretty much NAM vs the world at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 GFS roughly the same as last run. It's becoming clear though, that it all depends on how strong and the orientation of the initial wave of snow, that will determined 95% of the snow we get here. So, do we underperfom or overperform? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The euro ends the trend of being completely dry and juices that first wave up some. Roughly 2-4 inches for most of us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 With the models trending drier I am expecting TSA and the others will drop the watch and replace it with another advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Morning runs are settling in on a general 2-3" snow across a lot of this region. NAM a bit more banded and juiced up. Waiting on Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I’m ok knowing that 4 is still on the table if I’m lucky, otherwise 2-3 seems like a solid bet as of right now. Honestly, I’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I got some surprise flurries today at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Well, it seems that apathy and numbness are setting in with most of us, me included. Does anyone have a good pregame speech to rally the team??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 14 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Well, it seems that apathy and numbness are setting in with most of us, me included. Does anyone have a good pregame speech to rally the team??? Man. I really want to be inspiring at this point. But after the last 24 hours of model mayhem I’ve become comfortably numb. But I will say this, I think this is a really complex system that has caused the models a lot of trouble and we have the benefit of high ratios. I think we will get a nice snow to look at just not the big storm we were expecting from a few days ago. Go team! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 32 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said: Man. I really want to be inspiring at this point. But after the last 24 hours of model mayhem I’ve become comfortably numb. But I will say this, I think this is a really complex system that has caused the models a lot of trouble and we have the benefit of high ratios. I think we will get a nice snow to look at just not the big storm we were expecting from a few days ago. Go team! I nominate Flizzard for team captain! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 55 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Well, it seems that apathy and numbness are setting in with most of us, me included. Does anyone have a good pregame speech to rally the team??? Winter weather advisories are out and some upgrades to Winter Storm Warnings. Ladies and gentlemen, Never forget, Mother Nature is at her core, unpredictable. Some of the most memorable weather events in history happened because things did not go as intended and Mother Nature had her own plans. I’ve experienced several winter weather events that were like a dream all because a storm overperformed. As far as we have come, our knowledge is not infallible. There is low confidence in this storm, which means the likelihood of someone getting more than they bargained for is higher. I believe the storm will give us more than advertised! A band will set up somewhere and drop half a foot. Mark my words! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 It was never going to be a super big storm, it was a weak/dying shortwave moving though. With that being said, 2-4" of fluffy snow is generally possible due to how cold it is. It may even overperform in the most prolific band. Looking ahead, it looks like we should lose the -EPO in a week or so but it looks to reestablish itself by the end of the month. Looks like they moved the Buffalo game to Monday since they are expecting FEET of snow. With that being said, Go Chiefs! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Personally I'm really surprised they went for a Warning. 2-4" is barely even Warning criteria. (4+ is) Another thing too is the air is extremely dry at the midlevels which will cause sublimation to occur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Is this storm fully sampled on shore yet? The amounts in Oregon have already surprised the Mets there. Forecasts have had to be upped several inches for snow. Perhaps it'll be stronger than the models have shown. So wishing for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 12 minutes ago, SWineman said: Is this storm fully sampled on shore yet? The amounts in Oregon have already surprised the Mets there. Forecasts have had to be upped several inches for snow. Perhaps it'll be stronger than the models have shown. So wishing for snow. Should be fully sampled for the 0z runs. Don’t believe it was for 12z but not positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 19 minutes ago, MUWX said: Should be fully sampled for the 0z runs. Don’t believe it was for 12z but not positive. KNWA Dan Skoff said on a FB live show an hour ago it wasn't fully sampled until tonight. They're going with a general 2-4 for now. But banding could produce more in some areas. Also said based on soundings flakes could be sizeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I’ll be very happy with a couple inches of 20:1 fluff falling in an environment that’s very extreme for these parts. It’s starting to feel pretty brutal outside in Tulsa, but the wind chill maps to the north are just incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 HRRR is pretty ugly for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Yeah 00z models appear to be coming in even drier. I am thinking this is gonna bust and they will downgrade the warnings to an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: Yeah 00z models appear to be coming in even drier. I am thinking this is gonna bust and they will downgrade the warnings to an advisory. I think the NWS set themselves up for failure by going with a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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