StormChazer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Tulsa discussion. ” This storm will entrain healthy moisture levels for such a cold airmass, setting the stage for a potentially high impact snow storm for much of the area. As the upper level feature approaches it will induce solid mid level ascent over the area, over the top of an area already seeing good isentropic lift along the slope of the arctic airmass. Model guidance generally shows a range of 0.2 to 0.5" QPF. Forecast soundings show the entire lower atmosphere below 500 hPa in the DGZ and saturated. These factors should support extreme snow ratios of 20-1 or so. This certainly suggests the potential for a high impact snow event of 4" or greater for most of the CWA. However, the most recent 12z guidance uniformly decreased expected totals somewhat. In fact the drier models scarcely showed 2" of snow accumulation for a lot of the area. While impactful, this would not be nearly as problematic. This leaves us in a watch and wait position as some of the forecast uncertainties hopefully decline over the next day or two. With this in mind, anybody reading this should prepare now for several days of extreme cold and possibly travel impacts as well.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Hey Everybody!! Been a long time since we've had something good to watch!! Love reading all your posts! Fingers crossed for Tulsa..we've been screwed the last several years! Don't even get me started on that "Magical Snowless Donut Hole" over Tulsa last year! LOL! (Insert facepalm) Hopefully we can all cash in with the cold air in place over the next few weeks! But Gosh...that 64 degrees outside feels pretty darn amazing right now! RIP to my plants tonight! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18z GFS and ICON were both better than I expected after the Euro debacle. We’ll take it for now. I know there’s a lot of talk about suppression pushing it further south. Maybe this does the typical model NW shift??? Although that seems to happen more with cutters. Overall happy to see models hold steady-ish and give a middle finger to the Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 22 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 18z GFS and ICON were both better than I expected after the Euro debacle. We’ll take it for now. I know there’s a lot of talk about suppression pushing it further south. Maybe this does the typical model NW shift??? Although that seems to happen more with cutters. Overall happy to see models hold steady-ish and give a middle finger to the Euro. Preach!!! Edit: Actually, the icon cut totals by about half and dries up central and west OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, ouamber said: Hey Everybody!! Been a long time since we've had something good to watch!! Love reading all your posts! Fingers crossed for Tulsa..we've been screwed the last several years! Don't even get me started on that "Magical Snowless Donut Hole" over Tulsa last year! LOL! (Insert facepalm) Hopefully we can all cash in with the cold air in place over the next few weeks! But Gosh...that 64 degrees outside feels pretty darn amazing right now! RIP to my plants tonight! I simply will never forget the snow hole for as long as I live. We had someone here from Mexico for work who had never seen snow, and I promised her she would that night. Then the donut happened. Still, I think the floor on this storm is 2 inches, with a really high ceiling of 10. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Speaking of events falling apart… High res models really backing off the event for tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 06Z Euro, fwiw, does nudge slightly back toward a more favorable setup(emphasis on slight nudge), but still has a ways to go and is still pretty dry. I think tomorrow, best we will get out of it is a flash freeze on the road from the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Yeah the NAM and Euro seem to be out to lunch OR they are right and a massive bust is inbound. Fingers crossed for the GFS/Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Norman put this out earlier. They don't seem to be totally biting on the Euro change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Furthest out the NAM goes, with still alot of storm left to go. Of course hour 84 NAM isn't exactly gospel. Also, we have a great lightning show going on here in Tulsa right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Gosh, GFS, Icon, and Canadian look nothing alike for the Sunday/Monday storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, ouamber said: Gosh, GFS, Icon, and Canadian look nothing alike for the Sunday/Monday storm! To me the GFS appeared to take a step toward the Euro’s 12z run. Who knows what the Canadian was thinking. I guess it wanted to shut down central Arkansas for a couple of weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 We just had a gnarly thunderstorm come through Bentonville. Pea sized hail and I’d estimate wind gusts of at least 50mph if not 60. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 Looks like Lucy is up to her old tricks again. Even more dry and almost a non-event on the 00z Euro tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 What a terrible trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 15 minutes ago, JoMo said: Looks like Lucy is up to her old tricks again. Even more dry and almost a non-event on the 00z Euro tonight. Insanity. Even the Ukie has a nice snow showing up tonight, along with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Yeah GFS took a dump too. Not as dramatically as the Euro, but noticeable. 4-6" looks to be the high end versus the widespread 6-12" we were looking at a couple days ago. Only one still going crazy is the Canadian but its focusing a swath of 15-20 inches (Kuchera) way down in Central/Southern AR now. Looks like the moisture is being choked off & shunted to the SE. And naturally I got new tires and wiper blades. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 06z runs of most of the models looked a bit better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 What a difference one run makes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Will (little rock) said: What a difference one run makes lol Yep. Looks a lot like its 18z run yesterday. Even has that second little system that swings through after the main wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 Yeah the 06z GFS has an additional round on Monday night-Tues this run. Interesting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GFS needs to quit playing games with my heart. It can’t cave to the Euro like that then come back and give me hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 KING GFS! That’s a thing right? I don’t care, I’m shouting it from the rooftops, GFS I feel has been very reliable thus far and the most consistent. I really just want at least 4 inches. I don’t NEED 8, I just want it really bad. But 4+ keeps me happy. 2 or less makes me sad. waiting on the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I’m fine with the latest NAM solution, wave 2 is coming in but not yet shown on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 To watch two systems in a row fizzle right before my eyes is not unusual around these parts, but depressing nonetheless. Now that the system has trended south, it won't follow recent trends of moving north at the last minute and we will get the stupid cold with nothing white to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I see you 12z GFS. I like your trend this morning. Let's keep it going! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Recent runs to see if we can identify a consensus or trend. 12Z GFS(Sticking to it's guns) 12Z Canadian(Much improved over last night's run) 12Z ICON(Double these amounts. An Improvement over this morning and last night's runs) 06Z Euro(Still disrespectful) 12Z NAM(Still second wave coming) Final thoughts. A better trend than last night. The GFS and NAM seem to be thinking similarly. The Canadian pulled back from the Euro and looks similar to the ICON The ICON is a halfway point between the EURO and GFS. The Euro is all alone. Overall, I'm happy with this trend compared to where it was going last night. Not surprised the 06Z Euro looks about the same as last night given it's using the exact same upper air data as the 00Z. This afternoon's run will be very telling. I hope the Euro caves on it's stubborn, ugly output and falls somewhere in between the GFS/NAM and the ICON/Canadian. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Well, the Euro sucks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Well, the Euro sucks again. Interesting battle between the Euro and everyone else. Hoping it's wrong but I wouldn't bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Even the Ukie looks good. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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